Can We Trust the Toronto Raptors?

Can We Trust the Toronto Raptors?

The Toronto Raptors are rolling into the All-Star weekend, but how good are they?

The Toronto Raptors are rolling into the All-Star weekend, but how good are they?

Trust is defined in the dictionary as “Firm belief in the reliability, truth, ability, or strength of someone or something.”

Finding trust from fans and pundits have been difficult for the Raptors. Up until 2016 the franchise had won one playoff series in 20 seasons, a paltry amount of success by any professional team's expectations. The last couple of years have seen them turn the tides against their losing history: Back-to-back 50-win seasons and a trip to the Eastern Conference Finals in 2016 have made this short period a golden age in Toronto basketball, but at no point in the playoffs have the Raptors looked overly convincing. They always start the series from behind (0-9 in Game 1’s in the 1st round). Demar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry seemingly lose the ability to shoot (They both hover around 40% in the post-season). Toronto needed a furious Game 5 rally against the Pacers to escape Round 1 two years ago. Last year they survived a near-epic collapse in game 6 against the Bucks, coughing up a 25-point in under 20 minutes. No matter how straightforward the path may seem, the Raptors always go off-roading. To quote David Bowie: “It ain’t easy.”

This season has been exhilarating. It feels different than it ever has. Hands down, the Raptors are having their best regular season of all-time. A 41-16 record, 1st place in the East, the best home record in the league (24-4), and a point differential (+8.3) that trails only the league’s best Rockets. Their bench unit of Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet, Delon Wright, Jakob Poeltl and CJ Miles are beating down fools. The ball is moving, threes are being launched and minutes are being kept in check by Dwane Casey. 

Does that make them any more trustworthy in the playoffs? 

Apparently, they don't exist! 

Good thing for sensible stat geeks. According to the analytics gurus at FiveThirtyEight Toronto is currently a coin flip to make the NBA Finals and has a 1-in-5 chance to win it. Those are great odds!  A season culminating with an appearance in the league’s greatest showcase would be successful by any team's standard outside of Oakland, and most people in the city would celebrate the tangible growth in the success that June basketball represents.

These odds obviously don’t come out of nowhere, and the Raptors have earned them by being elite on both sides of the ball. They rank 4th in offensive efficiency (110.7 RTG) and 4th in defensive efficiency (102.6 RTG) for the first time ever. I decided to examine teams that have finished top 5 in both defense and offense in the last 15 years, with the following teams qualifying:

  • 2016-2017 Warriors (Won Title)
  • 2015-2016 Warriors (Lost in Finals)
  • 2015-2016 Spurs (Lost in 2nd Round)
  • 2014-2015 Warriors (Won Title)
  • 2012-2013 Thunder (Lost in 2nd Round)
  • 2011-2012 Bulls (Lost in 1st Round)
  • 2010-2011 Heat (Lost in Finals)
  • 2009-2010 Magic (Lost in Finals)
  • 2008-2009 Lakers (Won Title)
  • 2008-2009 Cavaliers (Lost in Conference Finals)
  • 2006-2007 Mavericks (Lost in 1st Round)
  • 2005-2006 Pistons (Lost in Conference Finals)
  • 2004-2005 Heat (Lost in Conference Finals) 

Teams that have excelled this much offensively and defensively have fared well in the playoffs, historically. Out of the 13 teams to achieve the ranking, three have won the title, three have lost in the Finals, three have lost in the Conference Finals, two have lost in the 2nd round, and two have lost in the 1st round.

9 of the 13 teams have made it at least as far as the Conference Finals, and it's worth noting that the 2012 Bulls would have likely made it further than Round 1 if they hadn't lost Derrick Rose to an ACL tear in the playoff opener. The 2016 Spurs also lost to a Thunder team that had two MVPs in Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. It's not usual to play a 3rd seeded team with players as good as those two.

The historical results are comparable to Five Thirty Eight's projections. 23% of the 13 teams won the title, and 46% of them made the Finals. There are obviously nuances to using regular season data. These numbers don't account for great veteran teams that had an extra gear reserved for the playoffs, like the 2008-2010 Celtics, or the 2012-2014 Heat. More importantly, when it comes to the Raptors making or missing the Finals, another gigantic variable looms large: Lebron James.

We can analyze all the data we want, but Lebron's narrative of winning the East hasn't changed since 2010. Whether he's played in Miami or Cleveland, James has been to the Finals for 7-straight years, and his dominance must create an unnerving feeling for any opponent that has to face him in the playoffs. The Raptors have succumbed to King James for two years in a row, but with Cleveland's subtraction of Kyrie Irving and the Dinos improvements in every facet of the game, this might be the closest the gap has ever been between the two clubs.

Regardless of James, there are many potential other threats in the East. The Heat, 76ers, and Pacers are all very difficult potential 1st round matchups, and teams that have all managed to beat the Raptors this year. The Wizards could be a 2nd round matchup, and they've beaten Toronto twice already. There's simply too much quality opposition to pencil in the Raptors for anything, even though they'd be favored to beat any of those teams.

This season the Raptors have raised expectations, and to what level you decide to trust them is yours. At the end of the day, it's your heart.

Trust is defined in the dictionary as “Firm belief in the reliability, truth, ability, or strength of someone or something.”

Finding trust from fans and pundits have been difficult for the Raptors. Up until 2016 the franchise had won one playoff series in 20 seasons, a paltry amount of success by any professional team's expectations. The last couple of years have seen them turn the tides against their losing history: Back-to-back 50-win seasons and a trip to the Eastern Conference Finals in 2016 have made this short period a golden age in Toronto basketball, but at no point in the playoffs have the Raptors looked overly convincing. They always start the series from behind (0-9 in Game 1’s in the 1st round). Demar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry seemingly lose the ability to shoot (They both hover around 40% in the post-season). Toronto needed a furious Game 5 rally against the Pacers to escape Round 1 two years ago. Last year they survived a near-epic collapse in game 6 against the Bucks, coughing up a 25-point in under 20 minutes. No matter how straightforward the path may seem, the Raptors always go off-roading. To quote David Bowie: “It ain’t easy.”

This season has been exhilarating. It feels different than it ever has. Hands down, the Raptors are having their best regular season of all-time. A 41-16 record, 1st place in the East, the best home record in the league (24-4), and a point differential (+8.3) that trails only the league’s best Rockets. Their bench unit of Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet, Delon Wright, Jakob Poeltl and CJ Miles are beating down fools. The ball is moving, threes are being launched and minutes are being kept in check by Dwane Casey. 

Does that make them any more trustworthy in the playoffs? 

Apparently, they don't exist! 

Good thing for sensible stat geeks. According to the analytics gurus at FiveThirtyEight Toronto is currently a coin flip to make the NBA Finals and has a 1-in-5 chance to win it. Those are great odds!  A season culminating with an appearance in the league’s greatest showcase would be successful by any team's standard outside of Oakland, and most people in the city would celebrate the tangible growth in the success that June basketball represents.

These odds obviously don’t come out of nowhere, and the Raptors have earned them by being elite on both sides of the ball. They rank 4th in offensive efficiency (110.7 RTG) and 4th in defensive efficiency (102.6 RTG) for the first time ever. I decided to examine teams that have finished top 5 in both defense and offense in the last 15 years, with the following teams qualifying:

  • 2016-2017 Warriors (Won Title)
  • 2015-2016 Warriors (Lost in Finals)
  • 2015-2016 Spurs (Lost in 2nd Round)
  • 2014-2015 Warriors (Won Title)
  • 2012-2013 Thunder (Lost in 2nd Round)
  • 2011-2012 Bulls (Lost in 1st Round)
  • 2010-2011 Heat (Lost in Finals)
  • 2009-2010 Magic (Lost in Finals)
  • 2008-2009 Lakers (Won Title)
  • 2008-2009 Cavaliers (Lost in Conference Finals)
  • 2006-2007 Mavericks (Lost in 1st Round)
  • 2005-2006 Pistons (Lost in Conference Finals)
  • 2004-2005 Heat (Lost in Conference Finals) 

Teams that have excelled this much offensively and defensively have fared well in the playoffs, historically. Out of the 13 teams to achieve the ranking, three have won the title, three have lost in the Finals, three have lost in the Conference Finals, two have lost in the 2nd round, and two have lost in the 1st round.

9 of the 13 teams have made it at least as far as the Conference Finals, and it's worth noting that the 2012 Bulls would have likely made it further than Round 1 if they hadn't lost Derrick Rose to an ACL tear in the playoff opener. The 2016 Spurs also lost to a Thunder team that had two MVPs in Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. It's not usual to play a 3rd seeded team with players as good as those two.

The historical results are comparable to Five Thirty Eight's projections. 23% of the 13 teams won the title, and 46% of them made the Finals. There are obviously nuances to using regular season data. These numbers don't account for great veteran teams that had an extra gear reserved for the playoffs, like the 2008-2010 Celtics, or the 2012-2014 Heat. More importantly, when it comes to the Raptors making or missing the Finals, another gigantic variable looms large: Lebron James.

We can analyze all the data we want, but Lebron's narrative of winning the East hasn't changed since 2010. Whether he's played in Miami or Cleveland, James has been to the Finals for 7-straight years, and his dominance must create an unnerving feeling for any opponent that has to face him in the playoffs. The Raptors have succumbed to King James for two years in a row, but with Cleveland's subtraction of Kyrie Irving and the Dinos improvements in every facet of the game, this might be the closest the gap has ever been between the two clubs.

Regardless of James, there are many potential other threats in the East. The Heat, 76ers, and Pacers are all very difficult potential 1st round matchups, and teams that have all managed to beat the Raptors this year. The Wizards could be a 2nd round matchup, and they've beaten Toronto twice already. There's simply too much quality opposition to pencil in the Raptors for anything, even though they'd be favored to beat any of those teams.

This season the Raptors have raised expectations, and to what level you decide to trust them is yours. At the end of the day, it's your heart.

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