John Wall: A View from 22+ Feet
John Wall: A View from 22+ Feet
Written by Rob Athmer (@robathmer) on 15 January 2018
Written by Rob Athmer
(@robathmer) on 15 January 2018
Washington Wizards' all-star point guard John Wall is shooting more three-pointers than ever before. But is this a good thing?
Washington Wizards' all-star point guard John Wall is shooting more three-pointers than ever before. But is this a good thing?
For arguably the greatest shot in Wizards’ history, John Wall didn’t drive hard to the basket. The all-star point guard also didn't penetrate the lane and kick the ball out to shooting guard Bradley Beal. Nor did D.C.’s best playmaker run the pick-and-roll with center Marcin Gortat. The facilitator with 831 assists (3rd in the NBA) didn’t even set up his most dependable long-range sniper, Otto Porter Jr., for three. Rather, Wall received the inbounds pass from Porter, dribbled twice to his left, and pulled up over Avery Bradley for the game-winning three himself.
The now iconic game-winning basket in game six of the 2017 Eastern Conference semifinal against Boston epitomizes Wall’s growing confidence beyond the arc. Not only is Wall growing more confident from distance, he is now relying on the shot as part of his overall offensive game. While the evolving NBA encourages (some would say requires) its guards to shoot and hit 22+ footers with regularity, a deeper dive into Wall’s shooting habits throughout his career indicates this may not be a welcomed evolution for him or the Wizards.
Wall entered the league in 2010 with elite speed and an unrelenting determination to attack the rim. Highlights of Wall traveling coast to coast for a dunk, spinning in the lane for an acrobatic bucket, or attacking bigs for a physical finish are abundant. The young guard wasn’t interested in the three-point line. In Wall’s first four seasons (2010-2014), only 13% of his shots came from beyond the arc. Comparatively, in the last four seasons (2014-present), 21.1% of his shots were threes. Even more revealing, Wall is currently chucking up threes for a career-high 25.1% of his field goal attempts. A quarter of the speedy, aggressive, attacking point guard’s shots are attempted far beyond the range where the Wizards benefit the most.
To what extent should Wall align with the “new” NBA’s trend for everyone to stretch the floor and score from deep? A closer look at some important data suggests Wall should attempt fewer three-pointers. In fact, he should defer that job to Beal and Porter. To understand why, it’s worth looking at Wall’s past five seasons (which includes the current season). Wall was an all-star in each of these seasons, and the Wizards were competitive contenders in the Eastern Conference. (This analysis ignores Wall’s first three seasons, as they can be considered the “Andray Blatche and Swaggy P” era. Needless to say, Wall’s first few seasons/teams are not worth examining.)
By tracking Wall’s player efficiency ratings (PER), offensive ratings (ORtg), and the Wizards’ win totals since the 2013-2014 season with his three-point field goal attempt rate, it’s apparent there is a negative relationship (it’s not worth debating the validity of this simple linear regression exercise; just understand that there's probably an inverse relationship that hurts the Wizards). Higher three-point field goal attempt percentages for Wall typically yield a lower PER (RED), ORtg (BLUE), and fewer Wizards’ wins (BLACK):
For comparison, the same studies on Beal and Porter suggest there are positive relationships: A higher percentage of their shots being threes typically increases their PERs (RED), ORtgs (BLUE), and Wizards’ wins (BLACK):
Vintage Wall gets to the rim and scores. Wall hits 61.4% of his field goal attempts within 3 feet of the basket, compared to just 32.3% from beyond the arc over his career. Given this, Wall’s expected to earn 1.23 points every time he shoots from around the rim (0-3 feet), but only 0.97 points when he shoots from deep (3PA). That’s 123 points (0-3 feet) versus 97 points (3PA) over 100 unique attempts. Extrapolate even further over the course of an entire season and the gap is too great to ignore.
While everyone in the NBA is attempting to become a deep threat, Wall needs to ignore the trend and stick to what he is: a fast, strong finisher and driving playmaker. Instead of settling for 22+ footers, Wall should drive to get buckets where he works best: around the rim. Wall will thrive and, more importantly, the Wizards will benefit.
For arguably the greatest shot in Wizards’ history, John Wall didn’t drive hard to the basket. The all-star point guard also didn't penetrate the lane and kick the ball out to shooting guard Bradley Beal. Nor did D.C.’s best playmaker run the pick-and-roll with center Marcin Gortat. The facilitator with 831 assists (3rd in the NBA) didn’t even set up his most dependable long-range sniper, Otto Porter Jr., for three. Rather, Wall received the inbounds pass from Porter, dribbled twice to his left, and pulled up over Avery Bradley for the game-winning three himself.
The now iconic game-winning basket in game six of the 2017 Eastern Conference semifinal against Boston epitomizes Wall’s growing confidence beyond the arc. Not only is Wall growing more confident from distance, he is now relying on the shot as part of his overall offensive game. While the evolving NBA encourages (some would say requires) its guards to shoot and hit 22+ footers with regularity, a deeper dive into Wall’s shooting habits throughout his career indicates this may not be a welcomed evolution for him or the Wizards.
Wall entered the league in 2010 with elite speed and an unrelenting determination to attack the rim. Highlights of Wall traveling coast to coast for a dunk, spinning in the lane for an acrobatic bucket, or attacking bigs for a physical finish are abundant. The young guard wasn’t interested in the three-point line. In Wall’s first four seasons (2010-2014), only 13% of his shots came from beyond the arc. Comparatively, in the last four seasons (2014-present), 21.1% of his shots were threes. Even more revealing, Wall is currently chucking up threes for a career-high 25.1% of his field goal attempts. A quarter of the speedy, aggressive, attacking point guard’s shots are attempted far beyond the range where the Wizards benefit the most.
To what extent should Wall align with the “new” NBA’s trend for everyone to stretch the floor and score from deep? A closer look at some important data suggests Wall should attempt fewer three-pointers. In fact, he should defer that job to Beal and Porter. To understand why, it’s worth looking at Wall’s past five seasons (which includes the current season). Wall was an all-star in each of these seasons, and the Wizards were competitive contenders in the Eastern Conference. (This analysis ignores Wall’s first three seasons, as they can be considered the “Andray Blatche and Swaggy P” era. Needless to say, Wall’s first few seasons/teams are not worth examining.)
By tracking Wall’s player efficiency ratings (PER), offensive ratings (ORtg), and the Wizards’ win totals since the 2013-2014 season with his three-point field goal attempt rate, it’s apparent there is a negative relationship (it’s not worth debating the validity of this simple linear regression exercise; just understand that there's probably an inverse relationship that hurts the Wizards). Higher three-point field goal attempt percentages for Wall typically yield a lower PER (RED), ORtg (BLUE), and fewer Wizards’ wins (BLACK):
For comparison, the same studies on Beal and Porter suggest there are positive relationships: A higher percentage of their shots being threes typically increases their PERs (RED), ORtgs (BLUE), and Wizards’ wins (BLACK):
Vintage Wall gets to the rim and scores. Wall hits 61.4% of his field goal attempts within 3 feet of the basket, compared to just 32.3% from beyond the arc over his career. Given this, Wall’s expected to earn 1.23 points every time he shoots from around the rim (0-3 feet), but only 0.97 points when he shoots from deep (3PA). That’s 123 points (0-3 feet) versus 97 points (3PA) over 100 unique attempts. Extrapolate even further over the course of an entire season and the gap is too great to ignore.
While everyone in the NBA is attempting to become a deep threat, Wall needs to ignore the trend and stick to what he is: a fast, strong finisher and driving playmaker. Instead of settling for 22+ footers, Wall should drive to get buckets where he works best: around the rim. Wall will thrive and, more importantly, the Wizards will benefit.