Julius Randle Is an All-Star Caliber Player
Julius Randle Is an All-Star Caliber Player
Written by Joshua Toussaint (@josh2saint) on 07 March 2018
Written by Joshua Toussaint
(@josh2saint) on 07 March 2018
The Lakers have been mightily impressive since inserting Julius Randle in the starting lineup. The young forward has been playing outstanding. Let's examine his impact and how valuable he is as an NBA player.
The Lakers have been mightily impressive since inserting Julius Randle in the starting lineup. The young forward has been playing outstanding. Let's examine his impact and how valuable he is as an NBA player.
At the beginning of the season, several fans and pundits were confused by Julius Randle coming off the bench. He does so much for the team from finishing at the rim, setting screens, rebounding, pushing the pace, and switching on defense. He has now started the last 30 games for the Lakers in which they have a 17-13 (56.7% winning percentage) record versus an 11-22 (33.3%) before when he came off the bench. Some of that latter record is slightly skewed due to their very tough December schedule where 5 of their games were against either the Rockets or Warriors and they had to play against Portland and Minnesota. While starting the 4th-year youngster has clearly led to more wins, let's examine how valuable and how great he has been not just to the Lakers, but to the rest of the league.
By the Numbers
Julius Randle's stats as a starter:
18.1 PPG
8.9 RPG
3.2 APG
56.8% FG%
75.5% FT%
61.4% TS% (For those who do not know true shooting percentage, it weighs 2P%, 3P%, and FT% overall. Here is a better explanation and formula: https://www.basketball-reference.com/about/glossary.html)
26% usage rate
+.8 net rating per 100 possessions
Stats playing 30+ minutes per game:
17 games played; 14 started
33 minutes per game
21.6 PPG
9.7 RPG
4.1 APG
59.8% FG%
70.3% FT%
63.4% TS%
26% usage rate
+12 net rating per 100 possessions
Season stats per 36 minutes:
21.6 points
10.7 rebounds
3.5 assists
.8 steals
.9 blocks
3.5 turnovers
Season advanced stats:
56.8% eFG%
60.5% TS%
.434 FTr (Free Throw Attempt Rate)
25% usage rate
73.6% FG% 0-3 feet from the rim (54.9% of his FGAs coming from there)
(All stats above found via www.basketball-reference.com)
Synergy Stats:
Overall scoring: 1.016 PPP (points per possession) on 941 possessions (72nd percentile)
Post-Ups (20.1% of time): .905 PPP (59th percentile)
Transition (18.8%): 1.124 PPP (58th percentile)
P&R Roll Man (13.7%): 1.194 PPP (72nd percentile)
Offensive rebound put-backs (9.9%): 1.301 PPP (82nd percentile)
Cut (9.1%): 1.407 PPP (77th percentile)
Isolation (7.3%): .725 PPP (27th percentile)
He's Pretty Good #Analysis
So, now you are thinking at least one of two things: "Julius Randle is a really good player" or "My brain hurts because there is so much to take in". Both of which are completely fair. Everyone talks about how important spacing is in the modern NBA, and they are correct. Having shooters creates more space for drives, cuts, post-ups, etc. Randle does not fit the modern context of a spacer, but he is one in a different way and is very good at it. Randle is such a physical behemoth attacking the rim and crashing the offensive glass. He has been one of the best finishers at the rim this season based on his FG% (73.6%) within 3 feet from the rim.
In terms of spacing, this elite level of finishing collapses defenses, which Randle has made the adjustment of passing to open shooters and occasionally cutters. According to Synergy, 28.9% of Randle's post-ups are passed out to a shot from a spot-up shooter or cutter. Of the 61 knockouts to spot-up shooters, they are averaging 1.246 PPP (77th percentile). Of the 16 passes to cutters, they are averaging 1.312 PPP (50th percentile). It is also worth noting that Randle's kickouts may not turn into assists, but rather hockey assists. As an offense, the goal is to find the best shot which is usually an open one. A great way to do this is by creating a double-team and moving the ball putting the defense in scramble mode. No one on the Lakers does this as well as Randle, although Ingram was doing a solid job at driving and kicking right before this groin injury.
Randle's efficiency as a scorer has been elite given his percentages on his volume. Add in his solid passing on top of that and he has been a borderline elite offensive player. However, the concerning part is his turnovers. As mentioned above, he is averaging 3.5 turnovers per 36 minutes. His turnover percentage is 16.6%, a good 2% higher than James Harden, who is third in the league in turnovers per game. Randle can still be a little out of control and force the issue. This will probably be one of his weaknesses the rest of his career. However, given his incredible efficiency and what he does to put pressure on the defense, the good far outweighs the bad.
Moreover, it is very important to note that the Lakers are 29th in the league in 3P%. If they had more spacing on the perimeter, Randle's turnovers would probably go down because he would not have as many double-teams and his insane efficiency would probably be even better. Over the last 15 games, the Lakers are 5th in the league in 3P% at 39%. During that stretch, Randle's turnover percentage is 13.4%, 3.2% below his league average, and his true shooting percentage is 62.6%, 2.1% above his league average. While the sample may not be big enough, the tape and numbers show this is a possible trend.
Defensive Impact
Besides being an elite offensive force, Randle has been a very impactful defender over the course of the season. Randle is second on the team in contested 2s per game and 4th overall in contested shots. Inside of 6 feet, Randle is second on the team in shots contested behind Lopez and players shoot 4% worse there than they normally do when contested by Randle. He has been solid helping in the paint all year despite his "T-Rex arms". His mobility, quickness, and positioning allow him to recover off his man to help the helper.
Randle's biggest contribution on defense is his ability to guard almost any player at any position. Some bigger guys like Embiid can take advantage of his lack of size, but Embiid will bully just about anybody. Julius does a great job at switching that often leads to an iso possession. According to Synergy, he allows just .854 PPP when defending isos which is in the 57th percentile. That may not seem great, but considering he defends that play type more than any other besides guarding the screener in PNRs, it is mightily impressive. Isolation plays are on average one of the least efficient play types in basketball.
With his ability to protect the paint well enough and switch onto smaller players on the perimeter, Randle puts himself in rare company. That is highly valuable in today's NBA because very few elite defenders have that combination. We are talking Joel Embiid, Anthony Davis, Paul Millsap, Draymond Green, Kevin Durant, Al Horford, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and maybe one or two other guys. That is about it. While Randle is not quite elite at both skill sets, he is very good at them and that alone makes him highly valuable. Sometimes it is better to be a B+ at every aspect instead of an A+ at a couple and a D+ at others.
Obviously, defense is far more complex than just switching and protecting the rim. It also includes closeouts, communication, boxing out, shading/playing angles, etc. According to Synergy in each play type that Randle defends a significant amount that includes P&R ball handler (whether it is defending the big or guard), isolation, P&R roll man, spot ups, post-ups, and off screens, Randle allows only above .9 PPP in one of those (spot ups at .942). That is incredible considering the worst offense in the NBA, the Sacramento Kings, average 1.013 PPP in total. Again, Randle's versatility allows him to defend multiple levels which makes him one of the most valuable defenders in the league.
My Take
Julius Randle is one of the most uniquely valuable players in the NBA. Offensively, he can push the ball and initiate the offense while being one of the best interior finishers in the entire league. He creates so much attention as a slasher, roll man, and offensive rebounder which collapses the defense and leads to kickouts to open 3s and better shots. The only tools missing are his jumper and his ball security. On defense, he is a complete jack of all trades, making him a unique combination 99% of players can match. Overall, he is one of the most impactful and talented players in the NBA. Magic Johnson and Rob Pelinka better take note this offseason because they cannot just let a talent like this at just age 23 walk away for nothing.
At the beginning of the season, several fans and pundits were confused by Julius Randle coming off the bench. He does so much for the team from finishing at the rim, setting screens, rebounding, pushing the pace, and switching on defense. He has now started the last 30 games for the Lakers in which they have a 17-13 (56.7% winning percentage) record versus an 11-22 (33.3%) before when he came off the bench. Some of that latter record is slightly skewed due to their very tough December schedule where 5 of their games were against either the Rockets or Warriors and they had to play against Portland and Minnesota. While starting the 4th-year youngster has clearly led to more wins, let's examine how valuable and how great he has been not just to the Lakers, but to the rest of the league.
By the Numbers
Julius Randle's stats as a starter:
18.1 PPG
8.9 RPG
3.2 APG
56.8% FG%
75.5% FT%
61.4% TS% (For those who do not know true shooting percentage, it weighs 2P%, 3P%, and FT% overall. Here is a better explanation and formula: https://www.basketball-reference.com/about/glossary.html)
26% usage rate
+.8 net rating per 100 possessions
Stats playing 30+ minutes per game:
17 games played; 14 started
33 minutes per game
21.6 PPG
9.7 RPG
4.1 APG
59.8% FG%
70.3% FT%
63.4% TS%
26% usage rate
+12 net rating per 100 possessions
Season stats per 36 minutes:
21.6 points
10.7 rebounds
3.5 assists
.8 steals
.9 blocks
3.5 turnovers
Season advanced stats:
56.8% eFG%
60.5% TS%
.434 FTr (Free Throw Attempt Rate)
25% usage rate
73.6% FG% 0-3 feet from the rim (54.9% of his FGAs coming from there)
(All stats above found via www.basketball-reference.com)
Synergy Stats:
Overall scoring: 1.016 PPP (points per possession) on 941 possessions (72nd percentile)
Post-Ups (20.1% of time): .905 PPP (59th percentile)
Transition (18.8%): 1.124 PPP (58th percentile)
P&R Roll Man (13.7%): 1.194 PPP (72nd percentile)
Offensive rebound put-backs (9.9%): 1.301 PPP (82nd percentile)
Cut (9.1%): 1.407 PPP (77th percentile)
Isolation (7.3%): .725 PPP (27th percentile)
He's Pretty Good #Analysis
So, now you are thinking at least one of two things: "Julius Randle is a really good player" or "My brain hurts because there is so much to take in". Both of which are completely fair. Everyone talks about how important spacing is in the modern NBA, and they are correct. Having shooters creates more space for drives, cuts, post-ups, etc. Randle does not fit the modern context of a spacer, but he is one in a different way and is very good at it. Randle is such a physical behemoth attacking the rim and crashing the offensive glass. He has been one of the best finishers at the rim this season based on his FG% (73.6%) within 3 feet from the rim.
In terms of spacing, this elite level of finishing collapses defenses, which Randle has made the adjustment of passing to open shooters and occasionally cutters. According to Synergy, 28.9% of Randle's post-ups are passed out to a shot from a spot-up shooter or cutter. Of the 61 knockouts to spot-up shooters, they are averaging 1.246 PPP (77th percentile). Of the 16 passes to cutters, they are averaging 1.312 PPP (50th percentile). It is also worth noting that Randle's kickouts may not turn into assists, but rather hockey assists. As an offense, the goal is to find the best shot which is usually an open one. A great way to do this is by creating a double-team and moving the ball putting the defense in scramble mode. No one on the Lakers does this as well as Randle, although Ingram was doing a solid job at driving and kicking right before this groin injury.
Randle's efficiency as a scorer has been elite given his percentages on his volume. Add in his solid passing on top of that and he has been a borderline elite offensive player. However, the concerning part is his turnovers. As mentioned above, he is averaging 3.5 turnovers per 36 minutes. His turnover percentage is 16.6%, a good 2% higher than James Harden, who is third in the league in turnovers per game. Randle can still be a little out of control and force the issue. This will probably be one of his weaknesses the rest of his career. However, given his incredible efficiency and what he does to put pressure on the defense, the good far outweighs the bad.
Moreover, it is very important to note that the Lakers are 29th in the league in 3P%. If they had more spacing on the perimeter, Randle's turnovers would probably go down because he would not have as many double-teams and his insane efficiency would probably be even better. Over the last 15 games, the Lakers are 5th in the league in 3P% at 39%. During that stretch, Randle's turnover percentage is 13.4%, 3.2% below his league average, and his true shooting percentage is 62.6%, 2.1% above his league average. While the sample may not be big enough, the tape and numbers show this is a possible trend.
Defensive Impact
Besides being an elite offensive force, Randle has been a very impactful defender over the course of the season. Randle is second on the team in contested 2s per game and 4th overall in contested shots. Inside of 6 feet, Randle is second on the team in shots contested behind Lopez and players shoot 4% worse there than they normally do when contested by Randle. He has been solid helping in the paint all year despite his "T-Rex arms". His mobility, quickness, and positioning allow him to recover off his man to help the helper.
Randle's biggest contribution on defense is his ability to guard almost any player at any position. Some bigger guys like Embiid can take advantage of his lack of size, but Embiid will bully just about anybody. Julius does a great job at switching that often leads to an iso possession. According to Synergy, he allows just .854 PPP when defending isos which is in the 57th percentile. That may not seem great, but considering he defends that play type more than any other besides guarding the screener in PNRs, it is mightily impressive. Isolation plays are on average one of the least efficient play types in basketball.
With his ability to protect the paint well enough and switch onto smaller players on the perimeter, Randle puts himself in rare company. That is highly valuable in today's NBA because very few elite defenders have that combination. We are talking Joel Embiid, Anthony Davis, Paul Millsap, Draymond Green, Kevin Durant, Al Horford, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and maybe one or two other guys. That is about it. While Randle is not quite elite at both skill sets, he is very good at them and that alone makes him highly valuable. Sometimes it is better to be a B+ at every aspect instead of an A+ at a couple and a D+ at others.
Obviously, defense is far more complex than just switching and protecting the rim. It also includes closeouts, communication, boxing out, shading/playing angles, etc. According to Synergy in each play type that Randle defends a significant amount that includes P&R ball handler (whether it is defending the big or guard), isolation, P&R roll man, spot ups, post-ups, and off screens, Randle allows only above .9 PPP in one of those (spot ups at .942). That is incredible considering the worst offense in the NBA, the Sacramento Kings, average 1.013 PPP in total. Again, Randle's versatility allows him to defend multiple levels which makes him one of the most valuable defenders in the league.
My Take
Julius Randle is one of the most uniquely valuable players in the NBA. Offensively, he can push the ball and initiate the offense while being one of the best interior finishers in the entire league. He creates so much attention as a slasher, roll man, and offensive rebounder which collapses the defense and leads to kickouts to open 3s and better shots. The only tools missing are his jumper and his ball security. On defense, he is a complete jack of all trades, making him a unique combination 99% of players can match. Overall, he is one of the most impactful and talented players in the NBA. Magic Johnson and Rob Pelinka better take note this offseason because they cannot just let a talent like this at just age 23 walk away for nothing.