In this series of articles, we will be covering the top draft prospects for the 2018 NBA Draft. We will cover where these guys will succeed at the next level and some of the areas that will cause major concern. By the end, you’ll be able to know what your team is getting with their eventual pick, what they are missing out on by passing on the guy you’ve never heard of, and be properly irritated by the over-drafted prospect based solely on what school he went to. We will start this series off with one of the most hyped prospects in recent years and a bonafide freak, I say with the most admiration possible, DeAndre Ayton. Ayton spent his high school career dominating the competition as one of the nation’s top recruits before committing to the University of Arizona. His dominance continued through his freshman year as he averaged 20.1 points and 11.6 rebounds per game while shooting 61.2 percent overall and 34.3 percent from three. He has become a top pick on many draft boards as his skill set projects for success for years to come.

Strength: Athleticism

Ayton is one of the most impressive athletes with great measurements as he stands 7’0” 243 lbs with a 7’5” wingspan. At just 19 years old, he is already built like a Greek God whose muscles have muscles that laugh at your lack of muscles. He has a stocky frame with wide shoulders so the odds are high that he will continue to get stronger, sorry everyone else. This strength is vital to his success in the post. It allows him to easily gain position when posting up and navigate his way to the hoop like he is playing against middle schoolers. He is also able to dominate on the boards as his size and strength make him impossible to box out and keep away from the ball.

Typically the stronger the player the less nimble they are but of course that isn’t the case with Ayton. His footwork rivals that of wings as he is able to dance around the floor with his fluid action. He keeps up with the guards and out-runs the big men. He can deftly manipulate the pick-and-roll and twist the defender in knots when posting up. He runs the floor with the best of them and is surprisingly adept at scoring off the dribble. There is no clumsiness or unfamiliarity with his body that is so common among young big men. The combination of Ayton’s strength, fluidity, speed, and body control will translate immediately and help him be one of the most imposing big men in the NBA.

Concern: Defense

The combination of Ayton’s physical tools suggests that he would be a defensive monster but that is not the case. Ayton is actually one of the worst defensive big men in this draft which isn’t just concerning but also rather rude considering his ability to do this:

Physically Ayton has all the tools to be an elite defender and has shown flashes but nowhere near enough consistency to think that he is close to being passable as a good defender. His footwork and coordination suggest that he could develop into a big that you can easily switch on defense. When going one-on-one he is able to keep the defender in front of him or use his length to recover when beaten. In the post, he is strong enough to not get pushed around and usually stays out of foul trouble by going straight up when contesting shots. The concern though is that he generally has a low activity level on this end of the floor, often gets caught ball watching, blatantly misses rotations, and can just get lost on what he is supposed to do. He had a very low block and steal rate in his lone college year which is very rare among athletes of similar ilk. Ayton could, and likely will, get exposed as a liability on defense from day one in the NBA. The team that drafts him will need to be able to surround him with a strong team defense and be patient with his development.

Strength: Scoring Versatility

As bad as Ayton is on defense, he is that impressive on offense. It is rare to see a prospect of his age and size display the scoring versatility that he has. His patience in the post often leads to scores as he is able to find the right opening. He can work with his back to the basket or face-up. He can turn a shoulder feint into a deadly turn-around or embarrass defenders with a well-timed up-and-under. NBA fans like to claim that the post-game is dead which can’t be more incorrect, it has just evolved.

While Ayton is deadly in the post, he can also navigate and torture teams from the outside as well. He showed the ability to spot up from behind the arc but given his likely role, this will be a rare occurrence. More importantly, Ayton showed his knowledge of operating in the ever-evolving pick-and-roll which has become one of the most common and useful actions in the NBA. His outside touch lets him utilize the pick-and-pop and then when defenders close out too hard on that he can use his above-average ball handling and athleticism to drive past them for an easy score. When he gets rolling to the rim off of a pick he is an elite rim runner that will be able to finish around defenders off the bounce or go up and get any lob thrown to him. Ayton truly is one of the most impressive offensive big men in recent history.

Concern: Motor

There are times in games where Ayton can completely disappear. On defense, he might as well not be out there. On offense, he just goes through the motions. When rebounding he barely goes for the ball. This doesn’t happen all of the time but enough where it warrants mentioning. The defensive disappearances are likely due to his lack of defensive IQ and awareness but the offensive ones are worrisome. Ayton has always been able to impose his will because his competition has never been as big or as strong as he has. Working for his spot or getting rebounds has been a breeze. The issue is when Ayton comes up against opponents who are as strong as he is and is able to provide legitimate resistance. In these matchups, there are times where he fades. He barely works to get position and will just let himself get boxed out. When the offense makes multiple trips in a row without flowing through him he becomes more and more disinterested. Some of this may be a result of the poor coaching schemes. He was often played with another seven-footer and at times the offense was guard dominant when there was no reason for that but regardless, the results are there.

Strength: Passing

So often young big men struggle to pass out of the post and turn into a black hole. Ayton has no issue passing out the post when he gets doubled. His approach to the situation is similar to when he is trying to score. He is patient, uses his size to see over the defense, and then finds the open man. He isn’t afraid to wipe it across the court to find the open man in the corner or slot it to the cutting wing or to just kick it straight back out to reset the offense. His passing vision and accuracy are very impressive and add another facet to his already impressive offensive arsenal.

Outlook

Ayton is going to be a very good player that is able to contribute from day one. His scoring and rebounding abilities will have immediate effects and be tools that coaches will drool over. When you add in his physical attributes he turns into a coach’s dream. I could see Ayton’s career progressing similarly to those of Karl-Anthony Towns and Enes Kanter. His offensive ability is undeniable but he has been a complete sieve on defense. Ayton has all the tools to become a good defender but it will come down to how much he works on it and how good of coaching he receives. Regardless, Ayton is a can’t-miss-prospect who any team would kill for.