Fantasy Basketball 30 for 30: Targeting a player from each team

There are quality fantasy basketball targets from almost every NBA team, except the Lakers.

There are quality fantasy targets from almost every NBA team. They ideally they will provide you with a profit if you select them at the right part in your draft. It's really early so we won't know ADPs (Average Draft Positions) for a while, but you can make an educated guess based on how a player finished last year.

Hashtag Basketball Projections - 9-Cat where TOs are weighted at 0.25 (Based on the August 9th Update)

Atlanta Hawks - John Collins (PF/C)

Source MPG FG% FT% 3PM PTS TREB AST STL BLK TO
Hashtag Basketball 29 0.58(5.6/9.7) 0.75(2.5/3.3) 0.2 14 8.8 1.7 0.8 1.2 1.7
My Projection 30 0.57(5.5/9.7) 0.73(2.5/3.4) 0.5 14 8.5 2 0.75 1.25 1.75

Reason to believe

The Hawks are awful and should be tanking again. They should be doing all they can do develop John Collins who had a very good rookie season. Dewayne Dedmon and Alex Len aren't a threat to steal minutes from Collins. Post-All Star Break he got 28.5 MPG. I wouldn't be shocked if he closed in on 30 this season.

Level of Confidence: High

Format: 9-Cat Roto
2017-18 Rank: 92
Buying at Pick: 65
Hashtag Basketball Projection: 45
My Projection: Top 55

Why it might not happen

The Atlanta Hawks have a new coach in Lloyd Pierce. He may not have the same trust in John Collins. That would be a fireable offense.

Boston Celtics - Jayson Tatum (SF/PF)

Source MPG FG% FT% 3PM PTS TREB AST STL BLK TO
Hashtag Basketball 33 0.48(5.6/11.7) 0.83(3.2/3.9) 1.7 16.2 5.4 1.8 1.2 0.8 1.5
My Projection 30 0.47(5.25/11.17) 0.84(2.5/2.98) 1.5 14.5 5 2 1.25 0.75 1.75

Reason to believe

Jayson Tatum's game doesn't rely on high volume shot attempts. There are few weaknesses to his fantasy game and the return of Gordon Hayward might even help Tatum's assists. Jayson had a great real-life season as a rookie. I don't believe that he will lose minutes like many believe. Also, players tend to improve in year two of their NBA career.

Level of Confidence: Medium

Format: 9-Cat Roto
2017-18 Rank: 63
Buying at Pick: 60
Hashtag Basketball Projection: 40
My Projection: Top 55

Why it might not happen

As long as Gordon Hayward is healthy he will be getting a large number of minutes. Therefore, somebody has to lose minutes. If you don't believe Marcus Morris, Jaylen Brown or Marcus Smart will lose minutes then you might think Jayson Tatum could lose minutes.

Brooklyn Nets - Jarrett Allen (PF/C)

Source MPG FG% FT% 3PM PTS TREB AST STL BLK TO
Hashtag Basketball 26 0.60(4.6/7.6) 0.81(2.5/3.1) 0.1 11.8 7.2 1 0.5 1.4 1.6
My Projection 28 0.58(4.625/7.97) 0.76(2.5/3.29) 0.25 12 7.25 1 0.5 2 1.75

Reason to believe

The Brooklyn Nets finally have their pick back, so their best option may be to tank. They aren't good enough to make the playoffs, so they should be developing their younger players like Jarrett Allen. Kenneth Faried and Ed Davis are okay additions, but they shouldn't be taking minutes from Allen.

Level of Confidence: High

Format: 9-Cat Roto
2017-18 Rank: 143
Buying at Pick: 65
Hashtag Basketball Projection: 58
My Projection: Top 50

Why it might not happen

Post-All Star Jarrett averaged 2.1 BPG in only 24 MPG. That's insanely good, but there's a chance it may not be real because Pre-All Star he only averaged 0.8 BPG in just over 18 MPG. Jarrett Allen should be getting a healthy amount of minutes this season, but is he really an elite shot blocker?

Charlotte Hornets - Nic Batum (SG/SF)

Source MPG FG% FT% 3PM PTS TREB AST STL BLK TO
Hashtag Basketball 32 0.41(4.8/11.7) 0.86(1.9/2.3) 1.5 13.1 5.4 4.9 1 0.4 2.1
My Projection 32 0.42(5/11.9) 0.85(2.25/2.65) 1.75 14 6.25 6 1.1 0.5 2.25

Reason to believe

Nic Batum got injured early last year. The Hornets rushed him back before the initial timetable suggested and what do you know he looked awful for several weeks. Post-All Star, where he was ranked 61st in 9-cat, he looked a little more like himself. A healthy Batum is a good Batum

Level of Confidence: Medium

Format: 9-Cat Roto
2017-18 Rank: 99
Buying at Pick: 75
Hashtag Basketball Projection: 83
My Projection: Top 60

Why it might not happen

Batum turns 30 in December. He's also a player the Hornets have been trying to move because of his awful contract. If he gets dealt to a better team he might become less fantasy friendly.

Chicago Bulls - Kris Dunn (PG/SG)

Source MPG FG% FT% 3PM PTS TREB AST STL BLK TO
Hashtag Basketball 32 0.43(6.1/14.1) 0.73(1.9/2.5) 0.9 14.9 4.4 6.3 1.9 0.7 2.6
My Projection 32 0.43(6/13.95) 0.76(2/2.63) 1 15 4.5 6 2 0.6 3

Reason to believe

Kris Dunn got it done last year. He has no viable competition at point guard. Offensively the Chicago Bulls should be much improved this season. If Kris Dunn says healthy he will be a good fantasy asset. Assists are valuable and around this part in the draft, they are often hard to find.

Level of Confidence: High

Format: 8-Cat Roto
2017-18 Rank: 52 (TOs turned off)
Buying at Pick: 65
Hashtag Basketball Projection: 55
My Projection: Top 50 (TOs turned off)

Why it might not happen

If health becomes an issue again you will regret this pick. Also, Kris Dunn was awful as a rookie in Minnesota aside from summer league.

Cleveland Cavaliers - Kevin Love (PF/C)

Source MPG FG% FT% 3PM PTS TREB AST STL BLK TO
Hashtag Basketball 32 0.44(5.7/12.9) 0.86(3.9/4.5) 2.8 17.9 10.3 2.3 0.8 0.5 1.9
My Projection 30 0.47(8/17.02) 0.87(5.5/6.32) 2.5 24 11 2.5 1 0.5 2.5

Reason to believe

LeBron James is gone. Any questions? Kevin Love should touch the ball a lot more this season. That likely means more shot attempts, assists, and rebounds.

Level of Confidence: HighFormat: 9-Cat Roto
2017-18 Rank: 26
Buying at Pick: 20
Hashtag Basketball Projection: 23
My Projection: Top 15

Why it might not happen

The only thing really stopping Kevin Love would be an injury or him getting dealt at the deadline. If he isn't at full health and/or is in another situation you may not be getting a Christmas present this year.

Dallas Mavericks - Dennis Smith (PG/SG)

Source MPG FG% FT% 3PM PTS TREB AST STL BLK TO
Hashtag Basketball 31 0.40(6.4/15.9) 0.71(2.2/3.1) 1.8 16.7 3.9 5.6 1.1 0.2 2.9
My Projection 30 0.42(6/14.29) 0.74(2.5/3.38) 1.5 16 4 6 1.2 0.35 2.5

Reason to believe

As a rookie, Dennis Smith was the Mavs starting point guard. His primary value comes from his passing. Post-All Star Smith averaged 5.9 APG. His scoring, threes made, and steals aren't bad either. If you can slot him into a punt percentages build he's got top 60 upside.

Level of Confidence: Medium

Format: 8-Cat Roto or H2H Leagues
2017-18 Rank: 147 (TOs turned off)
Buying at Pick: 140
Hashtag Basketball Projection: 143
My Projection: Top 120 (TOs turned off)

Why it might not happen

Luka Doncic might be really good and take usage away from Dennis Smith.

Denver Nuggets - Paul Millsap (PF/C)

Source MPG FG% FT% 3PM PTS TREB AST STL BLK TO
Hashtag Basketball 31 0.46(5.2/11.3) 0.73(3.2/4.3) 1.1 14.7 6.9 3 1.2 1.1 2
My Projection 32 0.47(5.25/11.17) 0.74(3.5/4.73) 1 15 7 3 1.35 1.25 2

Reason to believe

Paul Millsap is a good NBA player who just happened not to be healthy this last season. The Denver Nuggets are a good basketball team. There's no reason to believe Millsap won't be a big part of this team. His free throw percentage isn't great, but if he can bring it back to around 75% it will soften the blow in roto leagues. Prior to last year, his free percentage was between 75-77% for three straight seasons, so I find it unlikely that number falls below 70% again.

Level of Confidence: Medium

Format: 9-Cat Roto
2017-18 Rank: 81
Buying at Pick: 70
Hashtag Basketball Projection: 65
My Projection: Top 60

Why it might not happen

Paul Millsap turns 34 in February. There is certainly more risk of him getting injured especially coming off an injury-riddled season.

Detroit Pistons - Reggie Jackson (PG/SG)

Source MPG FG% FT% 3PM PTS TREB AST STL BLK TO
Hashtag Basketball 27 0.42(5.7/13.4) 0.85(2.7/3.1) 1.3 15.4 2.7 5.5 0.7 0.1 2.3
My Projection 30 0.435(5.5/12.64) 0.86(3/3.49) 1.5 15.5 2.2 6 0.85 0.15 2.5

Reason to believe

The Pistons play better when Reggie Jackson gets minutes. New coach Dwane Casey played through his guards when he coached the Raptors. Reggie was a good fantasy asset in 2013-14 (finished 61st), 2014-15 (finished 58th), and 2015-16 (finished 45th).

Level of Confidence: Medium

Format: 8-Cat Roto
2017-18 Rank: 146 (TOs turned off)
Buying at Pick: 120
Hashtag Basketball Projection: 125
My Projection: Top 100 (TOs turned off)

Why it might not happen

Reggie Jackson has not been healthy each of the last two seasons. In 2016-17 he finished 198th. There is also the risk Blake Griffin and Andre Drummond take the ball out of his hands.

Golden State Warriors - Jordan Bell (PF/C)

Source MPG FG% FT% 3PM PTS TREB AST STL BLK TO
Hashtag Basketball 20 0.61(2.8/4.7) 0.71(0.8/1.1) 0 6.5 5.3 2.6 0.8 1.3 1.3
My Projection 25 0.62(4/6.45) 0.70(1/1.43) 0 9 6.5 2.75 1 1.5 1.25

Reason to believe

Who is the Warriors starting center until DeMarcus Cousins returns? It potentially could be Kevon Looney, but Both Zaza & JaVale are gone. There's no reason Bell shouldn't start the season getting 22-25 MPG. Bell is going to continue to rim run, block shots, and rarely turn the ball over.

Level of Confidence: Medium

Format: 9-Cat Roto
2017-18 Rank: 191
Buying at Pick: 140
Hashtag Basketball Projection: 97
My Projection: Top 80

Why it might not happen

DeMarcus Cousins returns sooner than expected and gets his full workload of minutes.

Houston Rockets - James Harden (PG/SG)

Source MPG FG% FT% 3PM PTS TREB AST STL BLK TO
Hashtag Basketball 35.4 0.45(8.8/19.8) 0.85(8.3/9.7) 3.7 29.6 5.8 8.7 1.6 0.6 4.7
My Projection 36 0.44(8.875/20.17) 0.86(8.75/10.17) 3.5 30 6 8.5 1.75 0.7 4.25

Reason to believe

James Harden produces year after year. With a top pick, you want the highest floor possible. Harden is ready to install the hardwood.8-Cat Rank
2012-13: 3rd
2013-14: 5th
2014-15: 2nd
2015-16: 3rd
2016-17: 1st
2017-18: 2nd

Level of Confidence: High

Format: 8-Cat Roto or H2H Leagues
2017-18 Rank: 2 (TOs turned off)
Buying at Pick: 1
Hashtag Basketball Projection: 3
My Projection: 1-5 Range (TOs turned off)

Why it might not happen

Losing Ariza could hurt floor spacing and the Melo experiment could do damage.

Indiana Pacers - Myles Turner (PF/C)

Source MPG FG% FT% 3PM PTS TREB AST STL BLK TO
Hashtag Basketball 30 0.50(5.2/10.4) 0.80(3.1/3.9) 0.9 14.5 6.7 1.4 0.7 1.9 1.4
My Projection 32 0.50(5.5/11) 0.79(3/3.8) 1 15 7 1.5 1 2 1.65

Reason to believe

A lot of people got burned by Myles Turner this last season. His game regressed, but injuries probably played a major factor in that. Maybe he's not the early 2nd round pick many thought he would be last year, but his skill set fits the modern NBA like a glove. Finding blocks without taking back poor free throw percentage is often hard to do. Turner is also a sneaky low turnovers guy and in 9-cat roto that has value.

Level of Confidence: High

Format: 9-Cat Roto
2017-18 Rank: 55
Buying at Pick: 40
Hashtag Basketball Projection: 35
My Projection: Top 30

Why it might not happen

The Pacers signed Kyle O'Quinn and Sabonis is likely going to get more minutes at center this season. The worry is that these guys in combination could hold Myles Turner under 30 MPG.

Los Angeles Clippers - Montrezl Harrell (PF/C)

Source MPG FG% FT% 3PM PTS TREB AST STL BLK TO
Hashtag Basketball 20 0.63(5.1/8.0) 0.64(1.8/2.8) 0 11.9 4.2 1.2 0.5 0.8 1
My Projection 25 0.63(6/9.52) 0.63(3/4.76) 0 15 6.25 1.5 0.7 1 1.25

Reason to believe

DeAndre Jordan is gone. Aside from Marcin Gortat who has fallen off a cliff, Harrell has little competition for minutes.

Level of Confidence: High

Format: H2H Punt FT%
2017-18 Rank: 130
Buying at Pick: 120
Hashtag Basketball Projection: 140
My Projection: Top 75 (FT% turned off)

Why it might not happen

Montrezl is an energy guy. Can he play with the same motor playing a heavy dose of minutes?

Los Angeles Lakers - ???

Reason to believe

The Lakers will be a better team this season, but for fantasy, I'm avoiding their players like the plague.

Level of Confidence: None

Why it won't happen

LeBron James is great by the sticker price come drafting time is going to be rather high. Lonzo Ball and Brandon Ingram are good players, but it's hard to envision how their counting stats get boosted playing next to LeBron.

Memphis Grizzlies - Marc Gasol (C)

Source MPG FG% FT% 3PM PTS TREB AST STL BLK TO
Hashtag Basketball 33 0.45(5.8/12.9) 0.83(3.2/3.9) 1.6 16.4 7.4 4.4 0.8 1.4 2.4
My Projection 34 0.46(6.5/14.13) 0.83(3.5/4.22) 1.5 18 7 4 1 1.5 2.25

Reason to believe

The Grizzlies apparently want to chase a playoff spot, so as long as Marc Gasol is healthy there's little chance of him being rested in favor of younger players.

Level of Confidence: Medium

Format: 9-Cat Roto
2017-18 Rank: 42
Buying at Pick: 35
Hashtag Basketball Projection: 27
My Projection: Top 30

Why it might not happen

Believe it or not, but Pau's younger brother turns 34 in January. Injuries and decline in production are a serious risk at that age.

Miami Heat - Josh Richardson (PG/SG/SF)

Source MPG FG% FT% 3PM PTS TREB AST STL BLK TO
Hashtag Basketball 33 0.45(4.9/10.9) 0.83(1.5/1.8) 2 13.2 3.3 2.9 1.4 0.9 1.6
My Projection 31 0.44(4.5/10.23) 0.82(1.5/1.83) 1.5 12 3.3 3 1.4 0.85 1.5

Reason to believe

Josh Richardson may not be a star player, but there's a reason why the analytics community loves him. If your league isn't filled with that community Josh will likely slide to the point where you should buy him. He will deliver you steals and blocks without really hurting you anywhere.

Level of Confidence: Low

Format: 9-Cat Roto
2017-18 Rank: 53
Buying at Pick: 80
Hashtag Basketball Projection: 59
My Projection: Top 65

Why it might not happen

A healthy Dion Waiters could cost Richardson a few minutes.

Milwaukee Bucks - Brook Lopez (C)

Source MPG FG% FT% 3PM PTS TREB AST STL BLK TO
Hashtag Basketball 21 0.46(4.2/9.1) 0.74(1.4/1.9) 1.4 11.1 3.4 1.5 0.4 1.1 1.3
My Projection 27 0.47(6/12.77) 0.78(2.25/2.88) 1.75 16 5 2 0.5 1.75 1.5

Reason to believe

Brook Lopez was in a horrible situation this last season. The Lakers focus was on developing their young talent as opposed to winning games. As a result, Brook played a career-low 23.5 MPG. Thankfully, that is all behind him now. He enters a great situation with the Bucks not only because they are a good Eastern team, but because he's by far the best center on their roster.

Level of Confidence: Low

Format: 9-Cat Roto
2017-18 Rank: 108

Buying at Pick: 100
Hashtag Basketball Projection: 155
My Projection: Top 90

Why it might not happen

The Bucks do have a lot of guys that can play center. If coach Budenholzer determines Thon Maker, John Henson or Tyler Zeller deserve significant minutes Lopez's fantasy value could be in trouble once again.

Minnesota Timberwolves - Karl-Anthony Towns (C)

Source MPG FG% FT% 3PM PTS TREB AST STL BLK TO
Hashtag Basketball 36 0.54(9.0/16.6) 0.85(4.5/5.3) 1.4 24 12.4 2.8 0.9 1.4 2.2
My Projection 36 0.55(8.5/15.45) 0.86(4.25/4.94) 1.75 23 12.5 2.75 0.8 1.5 2

Reason to believe

We know Thibodeau likes to give his starters massive minutes. Taj Gibson played 33+ MPG this last season and somehow he didn't miss a single game. He is now 33 years old, so it's hard to expect him to repeat the season he just had. Gorgui Dieng proved to be no threat to Towns under Thibodeau. The floor is really high for Karl-Anthony Towns. If your first round pick is a bust you probably will have a tough time winning your league. If the KAT is healthy he will NOT be a bust. Also, Towns has greatly improved his three-point shooting.

Level of Confidence: High

Format: 9-Cat Roto
2017-18 Rank: 5
Buying at Pick: 2
Hashtag Basketball Projection: 5
My Projection: 2-5 Range

Why it might not happen

If Wiggins bounces back he potentially could take some shot attempts away from Towns. And playing more minutes puts you at a higher risk for injury.

New Orleans Pelicans - Elfrid Payton (PG)

Source MPG FG% FT% 3PM PTS TREB AST STL BLK TO
Hashtag Basketball 30 0.44(5.0/11.3) 0.68(1.9/2.8) 0.6 12.5 5 6.5 1.1 0.4 2.8
My Projection 28 0.46(4.75/10.33) 0.70(1.5/2.14) 0.5 12 4.25 6.75 1.25 0.4 2.5

Reason to believe

Rajon Rondo had success in this role last season with the Pelicans. That alone probably isn't enough of a reason to draft him, but Elfrid makes a good stash candidate. Last year was the first time in five years Jrue Holiday played 70+ games. Jrue is great, but with his injury history, I'd want his handcuff in Elfrid Payton.

Level of Confidence: Medium

Format: H2H Punt FT% & TOs
2017-18 Rank: 66 (FT% & TOs turned off)
Buying at Pick: 130
Hashtag Basketball Projection: 118
My Projection: Top 100 (FT% & TOs turned off)

Why it might not happen

He was an awful real-life player after he got traded to the Suns. Even though he has a fantasy friendly game he might just not be a good NBA player and therefore his minutes could take a hit.

New York Knicks - Mario Hezonja (SG/SF)

Source MPG FG% FT% 3PM PTS TREB AST STL BLK TO
Hashtag Basketball 25 0.43(4.3/9.9) 0.83(1.3/1.5) 1.3 11 4 1.7 1.1 0.4 1.5
My Projection 27 0.45(4.5/10) 0.83(1.5/1.81) 1.5 12 4 2 1.5 0.5 1.5

Reason to believe

The situation is great in New York for Super Mario. With Kristaps Porzingis hurt other guys will have to produce until he returns. Hezonja could very well be one of those guys.

Level of Confidence: Low

Format: 9-Cat Roto
2017-18 Rank: 146
Buying at Pick: 135
Hashtag Basketball Projection: 141
My Projection: Top 100

Why it might not happen

Prior to last year, Mario Hezonja looked like a bust. His play could very well regress to how he was playing his first two years in the NBA.

Oklahoma City Thunder - Russell Westbrook (PG)

Source MPG FG% FT% 3PM PTS TREB AST STL BLK TO
Hashtag Basketball 35.2 0.43(9.6/22.2) 0.78(6.0/7.7) 1.5 26.7 10 10.4 1.6 0.3 4.9
My Projection 34.5 0.445(10.25/23.03) 0.80(6/7.5) 1.5 28 9 9.75 2 0.3 4.75

Reason to believe

The cancer that is Carmelo is gone. Russ's scoring dropped over 6PPG this last season. With Paul George he's probably not going to crack 30PPG, but could he drop 27 or 28 PPG? Sure! I'd also expect Westbrook's free throw percentage to go back to 80+% like he shot the previous seven seasons. Additionally, Russell Westbrook has been an ironman the last 3 years.

Games Played
2015-16: 80
2016-17: 81
2017-18: 80

Level of Confidence: High

Format: 8-Cat Roto
2017-18 Rank: 12 (TOs turned off)
Buying at Pick: 5
Hashtag Basketball Projection: 14
My Projection: 3-8 Range (TOs turned off)

Why it might not happen

There's a real possibility Westbrook won't average a triple-double for a 3rd consecutive year. James Harden lost 2+ assists playing beside Chris Paul. Westbrook playing beside Dennis Schroder could cost him some assists.

Orlando Magic - Jonathan Isaac (PF)

Source MPG FG% FT% 3PM PTS TREB AST STL BLK TO
Hashtag Basketball 27 0.42(3.3/8.0) 0.79(1.3/1.6) 0.9 8.9 5.3 1 1.5 1.6 1.4
My Projection 26 0.44(3/6.82) 0.76(2/2.63) 1 9 5.5 1 1.5 1.5 1.25

Reason to believe

Jonathan Isaac is a good defensive player. The Orlando Magic don't have too many of those. He could very well average between 2.5-3 stocks (steals + blocks) this season. Those categories are extremely valuable. The great thing about Isaac is he doesn't need 30 MPG to be productive, but heavy minutes could be on the table if Nikola Vucevic gets traded.

Level of Confidence: High

Format: 9-Cat Roto
2017-18 Rank: 176
Buying at Pick: 100
Hashtag Basketball Projection: 80
My Projection: Top 80

Why it might not happen

The Magic have a lot of bigs. Nikola Vucevic and Aaron Gordon will likely be their starters at center and power forward respectively. Isaac should have priority off the bench over rookie, Mo Bamba.


Philadelphia 76ers - Ben Simmons (PG/SF/PF)

Source MPG FG% FT% 3PM PTS TREB AST STL BLK TO
Hashtag Basketball 35 0.56(8.0/14.3) 0.58(2.9/5.1) 0.1 19.1 8.5 9.3 1.7 1 3.6
My Projection 30 0.56(6.5/11.61) 0.58(3/5.17) 0 16 9 10 2 1 3

Reason to believe

Ben Simmons increased his FG%, ASTS, and REBS as the season progressed. Whether you think he was a rookie last year or not he's only going to get better.

Level of Confidence: High

Format: H2H Punt FT% & TOs
2017-18 Rank: 12 (FT% & TOs turned off)
Buying at Pick: 15
Hashtag Basketball Projection: 18
My Projection: Top 10 (FT% & TOs turned off)

Why it might not happen

If Markelle Fultz is healthy and playing well he could cut into Simmons's assists if gets the opportunity to be the lead ball handler for stretches with the starting group.

Phoenix Suns - DeAndre Ayton (C)

Source MPG FG% FT% 3PM PTS TREB AST STL BLK TO
Hashtag Basketball 30 0.51(5.1/10.1) 0.72(2.1/2.9) 0.2 12.5 8.7 1.5 0.7 1.1 1.6
My Projection 30 0.58(6.75/11.64) 0.71(3.5/4.93) 0 17 9 1.5 0.5 1.5 2

Reason to believe

The Phoenix Suns aren't making the playoffs this season. Their priority should be to continue to develop their younger players. DeAndre Ayton should get all the minutes he can handle. He wasn't a great defender in college, but that didn't hurt his ability to get blocks. The Suns believe in him because they used the number one pick on him.

Level of Confidence: Low

Format: 9-Cat Roto
2017-18 Rank: N/A
Buying at Pick: 85
Hashtag Basketball Projection: 90
My Projection: Top 75

Why it might not happen

He's a rookie so it's extremely hard to accurately project his stat line. So it's a high-risk play.

Portland Trailblazers - Jusuf Nurkic (C)

Source MPG FG% FT% 3PM PTS TREB AST STL BLK TO
Hashtag Basketball 27.5 0.50(6.3/12.5) 0.64(2.7/4.2) 0 15.3 9.4 2.2 0.9 1.4 2.6
My Projection 28 0.51(6/11.76) 0.63(2.5/3.97) 0 14.5 9.5 2 1 1.75 2.5

Reason to believe

The Blazers just re-signed Jusuf Nurkic to a substantial contract. Ed Davis is gone. The only real threat to take center minutes away from Jusuf Nurkic is Zach Collins.

Level of Confidence: Low

Format: H2H Punt FT% & TOs
2017-18 Rank: 54 (FT% & TOs turned off)
Buying at Pick: 75
Hashtag Basketball Projection: 86
My Projection: Top 50 (FT% & TOs turned off)

Why it might not happen

Nurkic tends to be wildly inconsistent.

Sacramento Kings - De'Aaron Fox (PG)

Source MPG FG% FT% 3PM PTS TREB AST STL BLK TO
Hashtag Basketball 30 0.42(5.3/12.6) 0.75(2.4/3.2) 0.8 13.9 3.1 4.9 1 0.3 2.4
My Projection 30 0.435(5.25/12.07) 0.73(2.5/3.42) 1 14 3.5 5 1.2 0.3 2.5

Reason to believe

De'Aaron Fox is the starting point guard for the Kings. Apparently, one of the reasons the Kings passed on Doncic is because they believe in Fox. If you are looking for cheap assists late in your draft Fox isn't a bad option.

Level of Confidence: Low
Format: H2H Punt FT% & TOs
2017-18 Rank: 172 (FT% & TOs turned off)
Buying at Pick: 150
Hashtag Basketball Projection: 160
My Projection: Top 120 (FT% & TOs turned off)

Why it might not happen

De'Aaron Fox didn't have a good rookie season. He may not be a good NBA player and therefore may not get a full workload of minutes

San Antonio Spurs - Jakob Poeltl (C)

Source MPG FG% FT% 3PM PTS TREB AST STL BLK TO
Hashtag Basketball 18 0.62(2.9/4.6) 0.63(0.8/1.3) 0 6.6 4.6 0.6 0.5 0.9 1
My Projection 25 0.64(4.25/6.64) 0.64(1/1.56) 0 9.5 6.75 1.5 0.75 1.4 1.3

Reason to believe

Jakob Poeltl was really good for stretches with the Raptors last season. He enters a less crowded situation with the Spurs. His primary competition is Pau Gasol who is 38 and not a starting level talent anymore. Poeltl is fantastic from the restricted area so he's going to help your FG% as well as chip in some blocks.

Level of Confidence: Medium

Format: H2H Punt FT%
2017-18 Rank: 141 (FT% turned off)
Buying at Pick: 150
Hashtag Basketball Projection: 198
My Projection: 110 (FT% turned off)

Why it might not happen

Poeltl isn't a good defensive rebounder. It's possible that could cost him minutes.

Toronto Raptors - Kyle Lowry (PG)

Source MPG FG% FT% 3PM PTS TREB AST STL BLK TO
Hashtag Basketball 32 0.43(5.5/12.7) 0.85(2.7/3.2) 3.1 16.8 5.2 6.4 1.2 0.3 2.3
My Projection 32 0.44(5/11.36) 0.83(3.5/4.22) 3 16.5 4.75 7.25 1.2 0.25 2.25

Reason to believe

Kyle Lowry increased his rebounding and assist rate while playing five fewer minutes per game the last season and his 3PM only dropped by 0.1. Lowry may be 32, but he can still raise his game to a high level. In the NBA playoffs this last year he shot 50.8% from the field and 44.4% from three with 8.5 APG. New coach, Nick Nurse, loves Kyle Lowry so he could very well have a bounce-back fantasy season.

Level of Confidence: Medium

Format: 9-Cat Roto
2017-18 Rank: 29
Buying at Pick: 30
Hashtag Basketball Projection: 25
My Projection: Top 25

Why it might not happen

In previous seasons with the Raptors Lowry always seemed to get hurt, but this last year playing a reduced workload kept him healthy. The Raptors have lofty goals this season after trading their franchise player, DeMar DeRozan, for Kawhi Leonard. They might do everything in their power to ensure Lowry is healthy for the playoffs again. Also, Lowry led the league in charges drawn. That does nothing to help you in fantasy, but it does put him at a greater risk of injury with all the hits he endures.

Utah Jazz - Rudy Gobert (C)

Source MPG FG% FT% 3PM PTS TREB AST STL BLK TO
Hashtag Basketball 33 0.62(5.0/8.2) 0.69(3.7/5.4) 0 13.8 12.1 1.4 0.7 2.3 1.9
My Projection 35 0.65(5.5/8.46) 0.68(4/5.88) 0 15 11.5 1.5 0.85 2.5 2

Reason to believe

Rudy Gobert has been the best rim protector in the league over the last two seasons. This last season he was slowed down by injury, but got back on track Post-All Star break.

Level of Confidence: High

Format: H2H Punt FT%
2017-18 Rank: 14 (FT% turned off)
Buying at Pick: 20
Hashtag Basketball Projection: 21
My Projection: Top 10 (FT% turned off)

Why it might not happen

It's really hard to maintain an elite block rate for several seasons.

Washington Wizards - John Wall (PG)

Source MPG FG% FT% 3PM PTS TREB AST STL BLK TO
Hashtag Basketball 36 0.44(8.0/18.3) 0.80(4.5/5.6) 1.3 21.8 4.1 9.8 1.9 0.9 3.9
My Projection 36 0.44(8/18.18) 0.78(4.75/6.09) 1.25 22 3.5 10 2 0.75 4

Reason to believe

Prior to last year where John Wall was hurt he averaged 10+ APG in the previous 3 seasons. His FT% also isn't likely to stay at career lows.

Level of Confidence: High

Format: 8-Cat Roto
2017-18 Rank: 24 (TOs turned off)
Buying at Pick: 16
Hashtag Basketball Projection: 17
My Projection: Top 15 (TOs turned off)

Why it might not happen

Chemistry could be an issue for the Wizards. John Wall has already been known to have problems with some of his teammates in the past. Now everyone's favorite teammate, Dwight Howard, joins the fold. What could go wrong?

Bonus Targets

Atlanta Hawks - Trae Young (PG)

Source MPG FG% FT% 3PM PTS TREB AST STL BLK TO
Hashtag Basketball 30 0.39(4.6/11.6) 0.80(2.7/3.4) 1.7 13.6 2.9 6.1 1 0.2 2.9
My Projection 30 0.39(4.5/11.54) 0.84(4.5/5.36) 2.5 16 3 7 1.2 0.25 4

Reason to believe

The Hawks quite possibly could be the worst team in the East this season again. Trae Young should be able to provide a nice amount of assists and threes. The Hawks chose Trae Young over Luka Doncic, so I'd expect Trae Young to get all the minutes he can handle.

Level of Confidence: LowFormat: H2H Punt FG% & TOs
2017-18 Rank: N/A
Buying at Pick: 75
Hashtag Basketball Projection: 114
My Projection: Top 60 (FG% & TOs turned off)

Why it might not happen

Young was up and down in summer league just as he was in college. He'll probably go through stretches where he barely scores when his shot isn't falling and be really hard to stomach on your roster.

Toronto Raptors - Jonas Valanciunas (C)

Source MPG FG% FT% 3PM PTS TREB AST STL BLK TO
Hashtag Basketball 24 0.56(5.5/9.9) 0.81(2.3/2.9) 0.2 13.6 8.8 0.9 0.4 0.9 1.4
My Projection 28 0.55(5.75/10.45) 0.80(3/3.75) 0.5 15 11 1.5 0.5 1 1.85

Reason to believe

Dwane Casey didn't particularly like Jonas Valanciunas or running plays for bigs. In a career year last year Valanciunas only played 22.5 MPG. It's crazy to see a starter play the few minutes especially a good one. Dwane Casey is now gone. Jakob Poeltl and Bebe are gone. Could Nick Nurse play Jonas 27-28 minutes a night? Last year I witnessed Jonas Valanciunas go after pick 100 in experts drafts. The fantasy community has definitely soured on him. If you can get him at the right price it's time to invest.

Level of Confidence: Medium

Format: 9-Cat Roto
2017-18 Rank: 71
Buying at Pick: 75
Hashtag Basketball Projection: 68
My Projection: Top 60

Why it might not happen

The Raptors potentially could have a 3-headed monster at center with Valanciunas, Ibaka, and Monroe. If Monroe shows well early in the season he could be a threat to keep Valanciunas's minutes in the low 20s.

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