The Dallas Mavericks Enter the New Year at a Crossroads

The Dallas Mavericks Enter the New Year at a Crossroads

Analyzing the Mavericks' season thus far, what they should (but probably won't) do, what the future holds and other musings about the team immediately after their heartbreaking loss to the Warriors.

Analyzing the Mavericks' season thus far, what they should (but probably won't) do, what the future holds and other musings about the team immediately after their heartbreaking loss to the Warriors.

Losing to a last-second three by perhaps the greatest shooter in NBA history playing for maybe the greatest team to ever play the game is nothing to be ashamed about, but it still hurts nonetheless. The Dallas Mavericks just had their 4-game winning streak snapped, a streak that included wins over four teams that would be in the playoffs if they started today. The Mavericks have had an impressive righting of the ship following a 2-14 start, going 11-12 in games since then and crawling back to a we-can-realistically-dream-about-it 7 1/2 games out of the playoffs. Following a close loss to a team like the Warriors, I'm sure the Mavericks feel galvanized and ready to have a good January.

Entering a crossroads

Playing no small role in the Mavericks poor start is the matter of their having played the league's second most difficult schedule thus far, with an opponent win percentage of .524. By contrast, the combined win percentage of Dallas' next 15 opponents is .464, and so the Mavericks have reason to believe they can make up ground in the standings before the all-star break. Things have been positive lately around American Airlines Center, with quotes from players and coaches continuously reflecting the upbeat atmosphere around the team. There's nowhere to go but up from here, right?

Perhaps. As a fan who was crushed by the loss to the Warriors (and needed 20 minutes even to begin to think about writing this), I want the team to win. No matter what my head says about the chances of winning a game, by the time any game tips off, I believe that the Mavericks can (and will) win the game, and my heart certainly wants them to. That's a part of the contract you make when you sign up to be a sports fan. But right now, the Mavericks currently have the sixth-worst record in the league. They're a lot closer to the bottom than the middle, being just one game away from the league-worst Hawks (who have beaten the Mavericks twice, by the way) in the loss column. Much as it seems the Mavericks have found their rhythm and are bound to have a successful month going forward against a much more manageable schedule, it makes a gross amount of sense for them to lose more games than they win and to try and stay amidst the league's worst records for the 2018 draft.

The pragmatic side of me says that the Mavericks must do just that, but the fan part of me silently hopes that they don't. I'll be angry that Rick Carlisle will keep the team motivated to win every night when all of my draft pick odds spreadsheets want them to do is falter. I'll be upset that JJ Barea and Wes Matthews will heat up from 3 and inexplicably win games against playoff teams for Dallas. I'll shake my head in admiration and reluctant desire to see Dirk drag the Mavericks over sides they don't deserve to beat when he inevitably does just that. Scratch that, I'll always cherish every time Dirk turns into his 1-handed fadeaways or drains a 3 in the transition from the top of the key. That's somewhere in the fine print of my sports fan contract too, I'm pretty sure. But as much as my head will want the Mavericks to lose every night, by the time each game starts and I see Dirk take that first shot, my heart will be all-in on wanting them to win the game.

What will happen?

And so, as I'm sure many people often do at the turn of any new year the Mavericks find themselves at a strange crossroads at the beginning of 2018. Dallas is a proud organization full of competitive people who don't ever want to hear the word "lose." Their franchise's best player is in the twilight of his career.  The Mavericks want to send him out on a high note with a chance at a final playoff run (or two, or 46 if Dirk wants to keep trotting out for a couple of jumpers a game into the 2060's) before his career ends. The Mavericks have a legacy of winning ever since Mark Cuban bought the team and they drafted Dirk Nowitzki. It's not in their DNA to tank, and it would be foolish of me to expect them to do that.

They're not stupid; in the backs of their minds, they know the team has a strong incentive to finish with one of the league's worst records in the final year before the NBA lottery restructuring. It gives the Mavs the best opportunity to add another young blue-chip prospect to pair with Dennis Smith Jr. (who both you and I can't believe I haven't brought up in an article about the Mavericks until now). But they're also not going to stop trying to win games, even if they might prefer that Dallas lose while playing well, as they did tonight against the Warriors. We can take consolation in the fact that a loss is probably a good thing for these Mavericks, it doesn't remove much of the string from watching them come THIS close to beating the Warriors.

Where should the Mavericks go from here? Probably to a cell phone to text Sam Hinkie and ask how to maximize their chances at a #1 pick, but it's more likely they plan on heading straight to a strong month of basketball leading up to the All-Star break, when they can look at their place in the standings and make decisions on any roster changes before the trade deadline. Let come what may (the month the order of the NBA draft will be decided by the lottery), because either way, either my head or my heart will be satisfied, and I'm reasonably sure that most Mavs fans feel the same.

Losing to a last-second three by perhaps the greatest shooter in NBA history playing for maybe the greatest team to ever play the game is nothing to be ashamed about, but it still hurts nonetheless. The Dallas Mavericks just had their 4-game winning streak snapped, a streak that included wins over four teams that would be in the playoffs if they started today. The Mavericks have had an impressive righting of the ship following a 2-14 start, going 11-12 in games since then and crawling back to a we-can-realistically-dream-about-it 7 1/2 games out of the playoffs. Following a close loss to a team like the Warriors, I'm sure the Mavericks feel galvanized and ready to have a good January.

Entering a crossroads

Playing no small role in the Mavericks poor start is the matter of their having played the league's second most difficult schedule thus far, with an opponent win percentage of .524. By contrast, the combined win percentage of Dallas' next 15 opponents is .464, and so the Mavericks have reason to believe they can make up ground in the standings before the all-star break. Things have been positive lately around American Airlines Center, with quotes from players and coaches continuously reflecting the upbeat atmosphere around the team. There's nowhere to go but up from here, right?

Perhaps. As a fan who was crushed by the loss to the Warriors (and needed 20 minutes even to begin to think about writing this), I want the team to win. No matter what my head says about the chances of winning a game, by the time any game tips off, I believe that the Mavericks can (and will) win the game, and my heart certainly wants them to. That's a part of the contract you make when you sign up to be a sports fan. But right now, the Mavericks currently have the sixth-worst record in the league. They're a lot closer to the bottom than the middle, being just one game away from the league-worst Hawks (who have beaten the Mavericks twice, by the way) in the loss column. Much as it seems the Mavericks have found their rhythm and are bound to have a successful month going forward against a much more manageable schedule, it makes a gross amount of sense for them to lose more games than they win and to try and stay amidst the league's worst records for the 2018 draft.

The pragmatic side of me says that the Mavericks must do just that, but the fan part of me silently hopes that they don't. I'll be angry that Rick Carlisle will keep the team motivated to win every night when all of my draft pick odds spreadsheets want them to do is falter. I'll be upset that JJ Barea and Wes Matthews will heat up from 3 and inexplicably win games against playoff teams for Dallas. I'll shake my head in admiration and reluctant desire to see Dirk drag the Mavericks over sides they don't deserve to beat when he inevitably does just that. Scratch that, I'll always cherish every time Dirk turns into his 1-handed fadeaways or drains a 3 in the transition from the top of the key. That's somewhere in the fine print of my sports fan contract too, I'm pretty sure. But as much as my head will want the Mavericks to lose every night, by the time each game starts and I see Dirk take that first shot, my heart will be all-in on wanting them to win the game.

What will happen?

And so, as I'm sure many people often do at the turn of any new year the Mavericks find themselves at a strange crossroads at the beginning of 2018. Dallas is a proud organization full of competitive people who don't ever want to hear the word "lose." Their franchise's best player is in the twilight of his career.  The Mavericks want to send him out on a high note with a chance at a final playoff run (or two, or 46 if Dirk wants to keep trotting out for a couple of jumpers a game into the 2060's) before his career ends. The Mavericks have a legacy of winning ever since Mark Cuban bought the team and they drafted Dirk Nowitzki. It's not in their DNA to tank, and it would be foolish of me to expect them to do that.

They're not stupid; in the backs of their minds, they know the team has a strong incentive to finish with one of the league's worst records in the final year before the NBA lottery restructuring. It gives the Mavs the best opportunity to add another young blue-chip prospect to pair with Dennis Smith Jr. (who both you and I can't believe I haven't brought up in an article about the Mavericks until now). But they're also not going to stop trying to win games, even if they might prefer that Dallas lose while playing well, as they did tonight against the Warriors. We can take consolation in the fact that a loss is probably a good thing for these Mavericks, it doesn't remove much of the string from watching them come THIS close to beating the Warriors.

Where should the Mavericks go from here? Probably to a cell phone to text Sam Hinkie and ask how to maximize their chances at a #1 pick, but it's more likely they plan on heading straight to a strong month of basketball leading up to the All-Star break, when they can look at their place in the standings and make decisions on any roster changes before the trade deadline. Let come what may (the month the order of the NBA draft will be decided by the lottery), because either way, either my head or my heart will be satisfied, and I'm reasonably sure that most Mavs fans feel the same.

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