Defining Success for a LeBron James Cavaliers Team

Defining Success for a LeBron James Cavaliers Team

LeBron James makes the Finals every year, but is that enough success for fans of his and fans of the Cavaliers?

LeBron James makes the Finals every year, but is that enough success for fans of his and fans of the Cavaliers?

Before digging into this topic, I want to point out two disclaimers: 1) Fans of crappy teams will not like to hear the general principle of this. I understand. I have been in those shoes as a lifelong fan of Cleveland's sports teams. 2) I will occasionally refer to Cavaliers fans as "we." I realize this is not typical of professionally written articles, but since this is about fandom, I think it's appropriate.

The Cavaliers have reached three straight NBA Finals, won a title, have one of the best players in NBA history on their roster, have a huge payroll, have superstars at multiple positions, and suddenly look like they're going to struggle to reach the 2nd round of the playoffs. In case you haven't noticed how bad it's been, here are the lowlights from just one game.

The recent swoon has talking heads, casual fans, and NBA media (players included) speculating about what trade could get the Cavaliers back into the title picture and what moves they can or should make. Should they trade the Brooklyn pick? Should they go after DeAndre Jordan? Kemba Walker? George Hill? DeMarcus Cousins? Is it worthwhile to go after someone with an expiring contract? Is none of this going to matter after LeBron decides to leave next summer?

All of these questions center around one very important question that hasn't been effectively answered: What is the end-game of these Cleveland Cavaliers?

At a glance, and according to ownership, management, and LeBron James, the goal is to win a title this season. According to anyone who has watched basketball in the past 15 months, that will not happen. It won't happen because of the Warriors, and if by some chance the Warriors get beaten - by the Rockets, if anyone - the Cavs might not even make it far enough to beat them anyway.

For a brief moment, ignore how the Cavaliers have played over the past two weeks. Instead, think about what has made the Warriors so dominant in their wins over Cleveland since the 2015 Finals. Sure, it's incredible scoring from Curry, Thompson, and now Durant, but it's the long-armed, athletic defense that is so frustrating, right?

In the 2015 Finals, the Cavs managed a 99.6 ORtg, 11.5 points worse than in the regular season. They were short-handed, of course, but the team shot below 39% from the field and turned the ball over pretty regularly. The 2016 Finals swung the other way a bit, but there were still times when LeBron struggled with the long-armed defenders clogging passing lanes. 2017, of course, basically didn't matter because the Warriors were so much better than the Cavs. I bring all of this up because the current Celtics are reminiscent of the 2014-2015 Warriors, albeit with less offensive firepower. They have long, athletic defenders, a ridiculously talented offensive player, a do-it-all big man, a deadeye shooter...they're not as good as those Warriors, but they have a mix of players that could give LeBron fits before even making it to a Finals re-re-re-rematch with Golden State.

Anyway, back to the point: Is losing 4-1 (or 4-0) in the NBA Finals this year a success or a failure? There are about 25 teams in the NBA who would be ecstatic to reach the NBA Finals. For the Cavs, that might be a failure. It might also inspire fans on talk-radio may call in and say "blow it up" as if they have any kind of understanding of how complicated that is and how long it takes to get back to relevance. If it's a successful season, then the Cavs can simply aim for that. It's more attainable. 

There was talk among NBA writers in 2015-2016 that some teams might take a long-term approach and try to simply "wait out" the Warriors' multi-year run. The Cavaliers were never among those teams, as the east is pretty wide open. However, as of late-January, the Cavs are no longer the front-runner in the east. As such, they need to make a move to regain their footing.They are somewhere between one and two improvements away from easily winning the conference - they (ideally) need rim protection and a guard who can defend. But that move - or series of moves - still wouldn't vault them over the Warriors as NBA favorites. In fact, most of the moves being thrown around (there are more than just those named earlier) would improve the Cavs, but nobody is giving up a Kevin Durant type of player, so the gap won't close far enough.

So again, what's a success? As fans, we want the team to win. We want them to play good basketball. We want to feel like we have a chance of getting another parade. We want to matter. And like everyone in every situation, we want more. But we almost certainly can't have it this year, so how should we feel at the end of the year?

Bottom line

It would be insane to mortgage the next five years of the franchise to make a run at a title that has a tiny chance of happening. There is no combination of players that the Cavs could reasonably obtain that would put them over the top against Golden State - they don't have enough assets to get a duo of superstars. Hell, the eastern conference All-Star team would barely beat the Warriors, and I'm not even sure who'd I'd take in a 7-game series.

What's a fan to do? If LeBron is going to leave, he's going to leave. The team needs something to build around if he goes, so a trade has to have a dual purpose. Except frankly, the trade may only need to serve the future and ignore this season.

The uncomfortable fact is that LeBron James may need to take a moment and realize that this team, as presently constructed, is not a championship team. It's still (probably) a reach-the-championship team, but it's not a team that will win unless Golden State has a series of injuries or gets upset by someone due to serious injuries. Any roster move - which we all sort of assume James has influence over - should be with an eye to the future. If he doesn't want to stay, the moves should allow the team to survive. If he does want to stay, the moves should help him in the future. A solid younger player with room to grow (Bazemore), a relative prospect who has some identifiable skillset (Labissière), a solid, more experienced, higher-priced player with a known skillset (Derrick Favors, George Hill, Lou Williams), or even a guy who doesn't necessarily fit those categories (Kemba Walker?) are all possibilities going forward. Determining who fits best with what's currently here and what would be here going forward is a complex juggling act.

As Kevin Love said about Ty Lue, I would not envy the Cavaliers' front office. 

Before digging into this topic, I want to point out two disclaimers: 1) Fans of crappy teams will not like to hear the general principle of this. I understand. I have been in those shoes as a lifelong fan of Cleveland's sports teams. 2) I will occasionally refer to Cavaliers fans as "we." I realize this is not typical of professionally written articles, but since this is about fandom, I think it's appropriate.

The Cavaliers have reached three straight NBA Finals, won a title, have one of the best players in NBA history on their roster, have a huge payroll, have superstars at multiple positions, and suddenly look like they're going to struggle to reach the 2nd round of the playoffs. In case you haven't noticed how bad it's been, here are the lowlights from just one game.

The recent swoon has talking heads, casual fans, and NBA media (players included) speculating about what trade could get the Cavaliers back into the title picture and what moves they can or should make. Should they trade the Brooklyn pick? Should they go after DeAndre Jordan? Kemba Walker? George Hill? DeMarcus Cousins? Is it worthwhile to go after someone with an expiring contract? Is none of this going to matter after LeBron decides to leave next summer?

All of these questions center around one very important question that hasn't been effectively answered: What is the end-game of these Cleveland Cavaliers?

At a glance, and according to ownership, management, and LeBron James, the goal is to win a title this season. According to anyone who has watched basketball in the past 15 months, that will not happen. It won't happen because of the Warriors, and if by some chance the Warriors get beaten - by the Rockets, if anyone - the Cavs might not even make it far enough to beat them anyway.

For a brief moment, ignore how the Cavaliers have played over the past two weeks. Instead, think about what has made the Warriors so dominant in their wins over Cleveland since the 2015 Finals. Sure, it's incredible scoring from Curry, Thompson, and now Durant, but it's the long-armed, athletic defense that is so frustrating, right?

In the 2015 Finals, the Cavs managed a 99.6 ORtg, 11.5 points worse than in the regular season. They were short-handed, of course, but the team shot below 39% from the field and turned the ball over pretty regularly. The 2016 Finals swung the other way a bit, but there were still times when LeBron struggled with the long-armed defenders clogging passing lanes. 2017, of course, basically didn't matter because the Warriors were so much better than the Cavs. I bring all of this up because the current Celtics are reminiscent of the 2014-2015 Warriors, albeit with less offensive firepower. They have long, athletic defenders, a ridiculously talented offensive player, a do-it-all big man, a deadeye shooter...they're not as good as those Warriors, but they have a mix of players that could give LeBron fits before even making it to a Finals re-re-re-rematch with Golden State.

Anyway, back to the point: Is losing 4-1 (or 4-0) in the NBA Finals this year a success or a failure? There are about 25 teams in the NBA who would be ecstatic to reach the NBA Finals. For the Cavs, that might be a failure. It might also inspire fans on talk-radio may call in and say "blow it up" as if they have any kind of understanding of how complicated that is and how long it takes to get back to relevance. If it's a successful season, then the Cavs can simply aim for that. It's more attainable. 

There was talk among NBA writers in 2015-2016 that some teams might take a long-term approach and try to simply "wait out" the Warriors' multi-year run. The Cavaliers were never among those teams, as the east is pretty wide open. However, as of late-January, the Cavs are no longer the front-runner in the east. As such, they need to make a move to regain their footing.They are somewhere between one and two improvements away from easily winning the conference - they (ideally) need rim protection and a guard who can defend. But that move - or series of moves - still wouldn't vault them over the Warriors as NBA favorites. In fact, most of the moves being thrown around (there are more than just those named earlier) would improve the Cavs, but nobody is giving up a Kevin Durant type of player, so the gap won't close far enough.

So again, what's a success? As fans, we want the team to win. We want them to play good basketball. We want to feel like we have a chance of getting another parade. We want to matter. And like everyone in every situation, we want more. But we almost certainly can't have it this year, so how should we feel at the end of the year?

Bottom line

It would be insane to mortgage the next five years of the franchise to make a run at a title that has a tiny chance of happening. There is no combination of players that the Cavs could reasonably obtain that would put them over the top against Golden State - they don't have enough assets to get a duo of superstars. Hell, the eastern conference All-Star team would barely beat the Warriors, and I'm not even sure who'd I'd take in a 7-game series.

What's a fan to do? If LeBron is going to leave, he's going to leave. The team needs something to build around if he goes, so a trade has to have a dual purpose. Except frankly, the trade may only need to serve the future and ignore this season.

The uncomfortable fact is that LeBron James may need to take a moment and realize that this team, as presently constructed, is not a championship team. It's still (probably) a reach-the-championship team, but it's not a team that will win unless Golden State has a series of injuries or gets upset by someone due to serious injuries. Any roster move - which we all sort of assume James has influence over - should be with an eye to the future. If he doesn't want to stay, the moves should allow the team to survive. If he does want to stay, the moves should help him in the future. A solid younger player with room to grow (Bazemore), a relative prospect who has some identifiable skillset (Labissière), a solid, more experienced, higher-priced player with a known skillset (Derrick Favors, George Hill, Lou Williams), or even a guy who doesn't necessarily fit those categories (Kemba Walker?) are all possibilities going forward. Determining who fits best with what's currently here and what would be here going forward is a complex juggling act.

As Kevin Love said about Ty Lue, I would not envy the Cavaliers' front office. 

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