Cavaliers Beat Pacers in 7, Face Raptors, Still Very Confusing

Cavaliers Beat Pacers in 7, Face Raptors, Still Very Confusing

It took longer than expected, but the Cleveland Cavaliers finally defeated the Indiana Pacers in round one. LeBron James was incredible for the Cavs, but everybody else looked shaky. What did we learn and what can the Cavaliers use for round two?

It took longer than expected, but the Cleveland Cavaliers finally defeated the Indiana Pacers in round one. LeBron James was incredible for the Cavs, but everybody else looked shaky. What did we learn and what can the Cavaliers use for round two?

Take a breath. Collect yourself. Gather your thoughts, anxieties, and awareness. Take your current moment, examine it, and begin to wonder what can be learned from it. Think about your strengths. Think about your weaknesses. Think about how you'll never be as good at anything as LeBron James is at playing basketball.

That's the #1 takeaway from round one. The Cavs are an absolute mess, but LeBron James is still on the roster, and for the ninth time in his nine playoff years in Cleveland, that was enough to make it to the 2nd round.

The numbers are baffling - the ones about LeBron James, the ones about his teammates, and the ones about the series as a whole. If you haven't seen them, here is a sampling, starting with the LeBron numbers:

  • James is now 13-0 in the first round of the playoffs. Nobody has ever beaten his team in round one. Ever
  • LeBron averaged 34.4 points, 10.4 rebounds, 7.7 assists, 1.4 steals, and 1.0 blocks per game while putting up a 55/35/82 shooting line - he led the team in each of those five categories
  • By GameScore (a stat that quantifies a player's overall effect on the game, where 10 is about league average and 25+ is All-Star level), LeBron averaged 30.1 for the series (Oladipo, for comparison, averaged 17.9 and was the series' 2nd best)
  • LeBron's offensive rating was 129 while the team's overall ORtg was 105

Some numbers about the rest of the Cavaliers:

  • Four different starting lineups were used in seven games
  • The 2nd highest average GameScore after LeBron's 30.1 was Kevin Love at 6.9
  • The Cavs shot 32.2% on three-pointers, down from 37.2% in the regular season
  • Kevin Love was 2nd in scoring (11.4 PPG) and rebounding (9.3 RPG), while George Hill was 2nd in assists (2.0 APG)
  • Love, JR Smith, Jordan Clarkson, Rodney Hood, Jeff Green, and Jose Calderon all played meaningful minutes and none of them posted a series-long ORtg of over 100 (Cavs had a 112 ORtg in the regular season)

Some numbers about the series overall:

  • The Cavs were outscored by 40 points over seven games - no other team has ever won a playoff series while being outscored by 40+ points
  • Cleveland shot worse, turned the ball over more, was out-rebounded, and out-assisted in the series
  • The 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 6th best GameScore averages were all Pacers players
  • Myles Turner was the most efficient three-point shooter in this series

It was weird. But the Cavs lived to die another day. They didn't inspire a ton of confidence for the upcoming Toronto series, but there's something that I can't seem to shake: Nobody - nobody - on the Cavaliers (except LeBron) outperformed their expectations. Kyle Korver had a nice game or two, but he shot 40% on three-pointers, which is below normal. Kevin Love, JR Smith, Jeff Green, Jose Calderon, George Hill - did any of them do anything particularly well? Did the shoot the lights out? Play great defense? Do anything even equal to the level that you'd expect? Did Rodney Hood have any good games? Did Jordan Clarkson provide a spark off the bench?

The answer to all of those is no. But on the bright side, that is probably not sustainable. Clarkson, Hood, Calderon, Hill, and Smith shot a staggering 25-98 on three-pointers. That's under 26%. They all shot 35% or better in the regular season. In fact, if the Cavs shot 37% on three-pointers in this series - matching their season average - they would have made about two more in game three, which they lost by two points. They also would've made 4-5 more in game one, which would have at least made an 18 point loss competitive down the stretch.

It was a very strange series for the Cavaliers, made substantially worse by the fact that LeBron James and George Hill were the only two players who could dribble the ball twice without turning it over, and Hill was injured for much of the series.

As for Toronto...

The Cavs have to figure some things out by Tuesday night. How will they get their shooting back on track? Can they settle on an effective lineup/rotation? Can someone take a tiny bit of pressure off LeBron James? And most importantly, how will they cover pick and rolls?

The NBA is a pick and roll league. Everyone runs it all the time because it's hard to stop when done right. Most teams have evolved to add variations of the play to make it even more complicated to guard. The Pacers ran the most basic PnR you can ever imagine and absolutely torched the Cavs on it for long stretches of seven games. Oladipo, Collison, Turner, Young - it didn't matter, so long as Kevin Love was getting put in the proverbial blender. He didn't stay tight enough to either player to stop, well, anything. Through the first six games, the Pacers' roll men were averaging almost 1.4 points per possession, which would have been well above the NBA's regular season leading Clippers, who were at 1.28.

In short, most of the Cavs sucked on defense. Most of them also sucked on offense. The plan for round two is to make this graphic change. 

Toronto is tough. They struggled against Washington, sure, but they're a good team. History is on Cleveland's side, but with the way the Cavaliers performed over the past couple of weeks, nothing is even remotely guaranteed. In fact, the Cavs open the series as substantial underdogs in Vegas. 

The Raptors will put Kevin Love into pick and rolls, force the currently-awful-shooters to shoot, and attack LeBron when he gets into the paint, figuring he won't shoot over 80% on free throws again. The Cavs' answer will have to be personnel-based. It seems like playing Kevin Love at the PF position with a semi-traditional center next to him is the best way for him to be effective. He can't body up against Turner or Valanciunas and expect to score, which is probably why he shoots three-pointers so much better than two-pointers in the playoffs - he has to pull the bigs away from the rim, giving him more space for jumpers.

Tristan Thompson was great in game seven - so great that you forget how he played himself out of the playoff rotation over the past year. Is he going to work against Toronto? Hard to say. Larry Nance is still probably a better version of Tristan, but matchups need to be found and exploited. Hopefully, for Cleveland's sake, it doesn't take seven games to figure them out again.

It will be an interesting series, as we may see the end of the unbelievable LeBron-to-the-Finals streak. We may also see the continuation of the Raptors-choke-in-the-playoffs streak.

Either way, here's to a few more games of watching the best player you've ever seen continuing to play at an impossibly high level.

Take a breath. Collect yourself. Gather your thoughts, anxieties, and awareness. Take your current moment, examine it, and begin to wonder what can be learned from it. Think about your strengths. Think about your weaknesses. Think about how you'll never be as good at anything as LeBron James is at playing basketball.

That's the #1 takeaway from round one. The Cavs are an absolute mess, but LeBron James is still on the roster, and for the ninth time in his nine playoff years in Cleveland, that was enough to make it to the 2nd round.

The numbers are baffling - the ones about LeBron James, the ones about his teammates, and the ones about the series as a whole. If you haven't seen them, here is a sampling, starting with the LeBron numbers:

  • James is now 13-0 in the first round of the playoffs. Nobody has ever beaten his team in round one. Ever
  • LeBron averaged 34.4 points, 10.4 rebounds, 7.7 assists, 1.4 steals, and 1.0 blocks per game while putting up a 55/35/82 shooting line - he led the team in each of those five categories
  • By GameScore (a stat that quantifies a player's overall effect on the game, where 10 is about league average and 25+ is All-Star level), LeBron averaged 30.1 for the series (Oladipo, for comparison, averaged 17.9 and was the series' 2nd best)
  • LeBron's offensive rating was 129 while the team's overall ORtg was 105

Some numbers about the rest of the Cavaliers:

  • Four different starting lineups were used in seven games
  • The 2nd highest average GameScore after LeBron's 30.1 was Kevin Love at 6.9
  • The Cavs shot 32.2% on three-pointers, down from 37.2% in the regular season
  • Kevin Love was 2nd in scoring (11.4 PPG) and rebounding (9.3 RPG), while George Hill was 2nd in assists (2.0 APG)
  • Love, JR Smith, Jordan Clarkson, Rodney Hood, Jeff Green, and Jose Calderon all played meaningful minutes and none of them posted a series-long ORtg of over 100 (Cavs had a 112 ORtg in the regular season)

Some numbers about the series overall:

  • The Cavs were outscored by 40 points over seven games - no other team has ever won a playoff series while being outscored by 40+ points
  • Cleveland shot worse, turned the ball over more, was out-rebounded, and out-assisted in the series
  • The 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 6th best GameScore averages were all Pacers players
  • Myles Turner was the most efficient three-point shooter in this series

It was weird. But the Cavs lived to die another day. They didn't inspire a ton of confidence for the upcoming Toronto series, but there's something that I can't seem to shake: Nobody - nobody - on the Cavaliers (except LeBron) outperformed their expectations. Kyle Korver had a nice game or two, but he shot 40% on three-pointers, which is below normal. Kevin Love, JR Smith, Jeff Green, Jose Calderon, George Hill - did any of them do anything particularly well? Did the shoot the lights out? Play great defense? Do anything even equal to the level that you'd expect? Did Rodney Hood have any good games? Did Jordan Clarkson provide a spark off the bench?

The answer to all of those is no. But on the bright side, that is probably not sustainable. Clarkson, Hood, Calderon, Hill, and Smith shot a staggering 25-98 on three-pointers. That's under 26%. They all shot 35% or better in the regular season. In fact, if the Cavs shot 37% on three-pointers in this series - matching their season average - they would have made about two more in game three, which they lost by two points. They also would've made 4-5 more in game one, which would have at least made an 18 point loss competitive down the stretch.

It was a very strange series for the Cavaliers, made substantially worse by the fact that LeBron James and George Hill were the only two players who could dribble the ball twice without turning it over, and Hill was injured for much of the series.

As for Toronto...

The Cavs have to figure some things out by Tuesday night. How will they get their shooting back on track? Can they settle on an effective lineup/rotation? Can someone take a tiny bit of pressure off LeBron James? And most importantly, how will they cover pick and rolls?

The NBA is a pick and roll league. Everyone runs it all the time because it's hard to stop when done right. Most teams have evolved to add variations of the play to make it even more complicated to guard. The Pacers ran the most basic PnR you can ever imagine and absolutely torched the Cavs on it for long stretches of seven games. Oladipo, Collison, Turner, Young - it didn't matter, so long as Kevin Love was getting put in the proverbial blender. He didn't stay tight enough to either player to stop, well, anything. Through the first six games, the Pacers' roll men were averaging almost 1.4 points per possession, which would have been well above the NBA's regular season leading Clippers, who were at 1.28.

In short, most of the Cavs sucked on defense. Most of them also sucked on offense. The plan for round two is to make this graphic change. 

Toronto is tough. They struggled against Washington, sure, but they're a good team. History is on Cleveland's side, but with the way the Cavaliers performed over the past couple of weeks, nothing is even remotely guaranteed. In fact, the Cavs open the series as substantial underdogs in Vegas. 

The Raptors will put Kevin Love into pick and rolls, force the currently-awful-shooters to shoot, and attack LeBron when he gets into the paint, figuring he won't shoot over 80% on free throws again. The Cavs' answer will have to be personnel-based. It seems like playing Kevin Love at the PF position with a semi-traditional center next to him is the best way for him to be effective. He can't body up against Turner or Valanciunas and expect to score, which is probably why he shoots three-pointers so much better than two-pointers in the playoffs - he has to pull the bigs away from the rim, giving him more space for jumpers.

Tristan Thompson was great in game seven - so great that you forget how he played himself out of the playoff rotation over the past year. Is he going to work against Toronto? Hard to say. Larry Nance is still probably a better version of Tristan, but matchups need to be found and exploited. Hopefully, for Cleveland's sake, it doesn't take seven games to figure them out again.

It will be an interesting series, as we may see the end of the unbelievable LeBron-to-the-Finals streak. We may also see the continuation of the Raptors-choke-in-the-playoffs streak.

Either way, here's to a few more games of watching the best player you've ever seen continuing to play at an impossibly high level.

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