What is the market for Aron Baynes?

What is the market for Aron Baynes?

The Boston Celtics have a lot of financial decisions to make in the near future. While the focus is on Marcus Smart and Terry Rozier, Aron Baynes could be a candidate to re-sign on a cheap deal.

The Boston Celtics have a lot of financial decisions to make in the near future. While the focus is on Marcus Smart and Terry Rozier, Aron Baynes could be a candidate to re-sign on a cheap deal.

The Boston Celtics are going to go through a series numbers crunch in the coming years. The return of Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward next season means the Celtics will potentially have five All-Star level talent players in their starting lineup. Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum are still on their rookie deals, giving the Celtics some financial leeway in the short term. The Celtics front office will have to assess the worth of Marcus Smart this summer and Terry Rozier the next, keeping in mind that Tatum and Brown will demand more money before long. It's a good problem to have, although it's intimidating to think of all the decisions that could go wrong. But before we get ahead of ourselves, let's not forget a piece of what made this season's defense so great - Aron Baynes. 

Baynes' willingness to get jammed on has not gone unnoticed in the Celtics community and, by my count, makes him the only Celtic in history who seems unbothered by it. Ultimately, it isn't all that significant, nor does it drive up his price tag, but it shows a level of personal investment that makes a player worth keeping. (The stats aren't going to convince anybody of anything so we have to get creative.) 

Some other dominoes would need to fall before Baynes finds a new home or stays in Boston. DeMarcus Cousins, Clint Capela, Derrick Favors, and Jusuf Nurkic are among the big men due for new contracts this summer that sit higher on the totem pole than Baynes. In the case of Cousins and Capela, it will simply come down to whose cap space they want to devour, since the heaps of money are almost guaranteed (although I wouldn't be the one to advocate for paying Cousins). It's been rumored that Phoenix would give Capela a max offer sheet, and that Houston would gladly dig into their wallets to keep him. 

While we tend to evaluate players based on talent, price tags in the NBA are pretty malleable based on a couple other factors: need and cap space, the latter of which is at a premium these days. I've said this before and I'll say it again - the 2016 summer spend-a-thon set back the entire NBA back five years, and the effects of that spending are starting to show. 

Via RealGM

Approximately 80 percent of the league will be over the cap. The cap spike that caused multiple teams to have copious amounts of cap space each summer from 2015 through 2017 has now flattened out. Large contracts the were handed out over the previous three years, combined with the cap flattening and the increase in rookie scale deals, will see the NBA back to its regular state.

Simply put, saying "Aron Baynes provided some high-quality minutes to a contending team and therefore deserves to be paid a lot of money" isn't an argument that holds up if there isn't any money to go around. Before this season, Baynes opted out of $6.5 million with Detroit to test the market and had to settle for $4.3 million with Boston. It should go without saying at this point: the money is never guaranteed. 

Fun fact: Bismack Biyombo got paid $17 million dollars in the 2017-18 season to play basketball for Orlando. Value! He's owed the same amount next year and even has a player option the year after that. Even better, he put up about the same numbers as Aron Baynes for roughly quadruple the price!

Player Season Age G GS MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% 2P 2PA 2P% eFG% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
Aron Baynes 2017-18 31 81 67 18.3 2.6 5.5 .471 0.0 0.3 .143 2.6 5.2 .487 .474 0.7 1.0 .756 1.6 3.8 5.4 1.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 2.5 6.0
Bismack Biyombo 2017-18 25 82 25 18.2 2.2 4.3 .520 0.0 0.0 .000 2.2 4.3 .521 .520 1.2 1.9 .650 1.8 4.0 5.7 0.8 0.3 1.2 1.0 1.9 5.7

Even their advanced stats are shockingly similar: 

Player Season Age G MP PER TS% 3PAr FTr ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG% OWS DWS WS WS/48 OBPM DBPM BPM VORP
Aron Baynes 2017-18 31 81 1485 12.1 .502 .047 .175 9.7 22.1 16.0 9.6 0.7 2.9 14.3 16.8 0.5 2.5 3.0 .097 -3.8 2.1 -1.7 0.1
Bismack Biyombo 2017-18 25 82 1495 14.1 .556 .003 .446 10.5 24.0 17.2 6.5 0.7 5.1 16.6 14.9 1.1 1.8 2.9 .094 -3.7 2.1 -1.6 0.2

Again, I will reiterate: A player's worth is relative to the amount of money that is available. Of course, teams with cap space don't have to use it right away, but good luck convincing the league's front offices of that. (The current state of the league tells me that very few franchises have learned to spend wisely, but hey, I'm just a guy on a couch on a porch.)

Another part of the pricing equation includes the timing of the signing. It mostly goes without saying, but high-priority players will go to the highest bidders early in free agency. Oh, except for the time Timofey Mozgov signed a four-year, $64 million deal with the Los Angeles Lakers an hour into 2016's free agency period. Yeah. Nevermind. 

In all seriousness, the Lakers are a team I could see making a play for Baynes. Brook Lopez and his $22 million are coming off the books, and it's unclear what the team's plan is for Julius Randle. If all that money goes towards a star player (i.e. Paul George), Baynes could fit in seamlessly, setting devastating screens to give Lonzo Ball room to sling passes to George and Kyle Kuzma on the wings. Another potential fit would be the Indiana Pacers, as they're one of the few competitive teams to have cap space to spend. The Pacers have two great prospects in Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner who can play the five, but you could also play either one as a four alongside Baynes without sacrificing too much spacing, especially if Turner can continue to improve his three-point shooting. 

As far as the other low payroll teams, I wouldn't pin any of them in particular as more logical destinations as the others because, by their very nature as rebuilding projects, they could use a little help at every position, leaving their options wide open. Judging by his current deal with Boston, I would assume Baynes is content to take a little less money to play for a good team instead of getting slightly more to play for a tank squad, but one can only speculate. We'll see how it plays out this summer once they figure out what to do with Marcus Smart. 

The Boston Celtics are going to go through a series numbers crunch in the coming years. The return of Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward next season means the Celtics will potentially have five All-Star level talent players in their starting lineup. Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum are still on their rookie deals, giving the Celtics some financial leeway in the short term. The Celtics front office will have to assess the worth of Marcus Smart this summer and Terry Rozier the next, keeping in mind that Tatum and Brown will demand more money before long. It's a good problem to have, although it's intimidating to think of all the decisions that could go wrong. But before we get ahead of ourselves, let's not forget a piece of what made this season's defense so great - Aron Baynes. 

Baynes' willingness to get jammed on has not gone unnoticed in the Celtics community and, by my count, makes him the only Celtic in history who seems unbothered by it. Ultimately, it isn't all that significant, nor does it drive up his price tag, but it shows a level of personal investment that makes a player worth keeping. (The stats aren't going to convince anybody of anything so we have to get creative.) 

Some other dominoes would need to fall before Baynes finds a new home or stays in Boston. DeMarcus Cousins, Clint Capela, Derrick Favors, and Jusuf Nurkic are among the big men due for new contracts this summer that sit higher on the totem pole than Baynes. In the case of Cousins and Capela, it will simply come down to whose cap space they want to devour, since the heaps of money are almost guaranteed (although I wouldn't be the one to advocate for paying Cousins). It's been rumored that Phoenix would give Capela a max offer sheet, and that Houston would gladly dig into their wallets to keep him. 

While we tend to evaluate players based on talent, price tags in the NBA are pretty malleable based on a couple other factors: need and cap space, the latter of which is at a premium these days. I've said this before and I'll say it again - the 2016 summer spend-a-thon set back the entire NBA back five years, and the effects of that spending are starting to show. 

Via RealGM

Approximately 80 percent of the league will be over the cap. The cap spike that caused multiple teams to have copious amounts of cap space each summer from 2015 through 2017 has now flattened out. Large contracts the were handed out over the previous three years, combined with the cap flattening and the increase in rookie scale deals, will see the NBA back to its regular state.

Simply put, saying "Aron Baynes provided some high-quality minutes to a contending team and therefore deserves to be paid a lot of money" isn't an argument that holds up if there isn't any money to go around. Before this season, Baynes opted out of $6.5 million with Detroit to test the market and had to settle for $4.3 million with Boston. It should go without saying at this point: the money is never guaranteed. 

Fun fact: Bismack Biyombo got paid $17 million dollars in the 2017-18 season to play basketball for Orlando. Value! He's owed the same amount next year and even has a player option the year after that. Even better, he put up about the same numbers as Aron Baynes for roughly quadruple the price!

Player Season Age G GS MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% 2P 2PA 2P% eFG% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
Aron Baynes 2017-18 31 81 67 18.3 2.6 5.5 .471 0.0 0.3 .143 2.6 5.2 .487 .474 0.7 1.0 .756 1.6 3.8 5.4 1.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 2.5 6.0
Bismack Biyombo 2017-18 25 82 25 18.2 2.2 4.3 .520 0.0 0.0 .000 2.2 4.3 .521 .520 1.2 1.9 .650 1.8 4.0 5.7 0.8 0.3 1.2 1.0 1.9 5.7

Even their advanced stats are shockingly similar: 

Player Season Age G MP PER TS% 3PAr FTr ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG% OWS DWS WS WS/48 OBPM DBPM BPM VORP
Aron Baynes 2017-18 31 81 1485 12.1 .502 .047 .175 9.7 22.1 16.0 9.6 0.7 2.9 14.3 16.8 0.5 2.5 3.0 .097 -3.8 2.1 -1.7 0.1
Bismack Biyombo 2017-18 25 82 1495 14.1 .556 .003 .446 10.5 24.0 17.2 6.5 0.7 5.1 16.6 14.9 1.1 1.8 2.9 .094 -3.7 2.1 -1.6 0.2

Again, I will reiterate: A player's worth is relative to the amount of money that is available. Of course, teams with cap space don't have to use it right away, but good luck convincing the league's front offices of that. (The current state of the league tells me that very few franchises have learned to spend wisely, but hey, I'm just a guy on a couch on a porch.)

Another part of the pricing equation includes the timing of the signing. It mostly goes without saying, but high-priority players will go to the highest bidders early in free agency. Oh, except for the time Timofey Mozgov signed a four-year, $64 million deal with the Los Angeles Lakers an hour into 2016's free agency period. Yeah. Nevermind. 

In all seriousness, the Lakers are a team I could see making a play for Baynes. Brook Lopez and his $22 million are coming off the books, and it's unclear what the team's plan is for Julius Randle. If all that money goes towards a star player (i.e. Paul George), Baynes could fit in seamlessly, setting devastating screens to give Lonzo Ball room to sling passes to George and Kyle Kuzma on the wings. Another potential fit would be the Indiana Pacers, as they're one of the few competitive teams to have cap space to spend. The Pacers have two great prospects in Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner who can play the five, but you could also play either one as a four alongside Baynes without sacrificing too much spacing, especially if Turner can continue to improve his three-point shooting. 

As far as the other low payroll teams, I wouldn't pin any of them in particular as more logical destinations as the others because, by their very nature as rebuilding projects, they could use a little help at every position, leaving their options wide open. Judging by his current deal with Boston, I would assume Baynes is content to take a little less money to play for a good team instead of getting slightly more to play for a tank squad, but one can only speculate. We'll see how it plays out this summer once they figure out what to do with Marcus Smart. 

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