An Assessment of the Wizards Front Court

An Assessment of the Wizards Front Court

Coming off a recent sample of the last 2 games, the Wizards exemplified their inconsistency as well as their potential. Beating the Celtics in Boston on Christmas day, off of a 12-0 run late in the 4th quarter, proved to be the team’s biggest victory of the season.

Coming off a recent sample of the last 2 games, the Wizards exemplified their inconsistency as well as their potential. Beating the Celtics in Boston on Christmas day, off of a 12-0 run late in the 4th quarter, proved to be the team’s biggest victory of the season.

Combining for over 40 points per game so far this year, and over 46 last season, the guard play of John Wall and Bradley Beal has carried the brunt of the workload for the last few seasons and proved to be the clear-cut strength of the Washington Wizards. Wall, already the all-time leader in assists and steals for the Wizards, just became #4 all-time in scoring for the franchise and has a shot at catching legend Wes Unsled for the #3 spot by the end of the regular season. Beal has fulfilled his promise when the Wizards drafted him #3 overall and become the dynamic shooter, scorer, and secondary ball handler that the team hoped for. In order to take advantage of one of the best backcourts in the NBA and capitalize as both players enter their prime, we have to consider if the current frontcourt is good enough to help the Wizards get to the next level. What are the strengths and weaknesses of the primary frontcourt contributors? Does general manager Ernie Grunfeld need to make a trade? Let's take a closer look at the play and impact of the Wizards' frontcourt.

Starters

Generally, starters Marcin Gortat and Markieff Morris have underwhelmed with their play this season. Gortat has been more or less himself, though a less active and efficient version of himself. After a strong finish last season, Morris, who has been hampered by injuries this year, has yet to regain the effectiveness he displayed down the stretch.

 

Points

FG%

FT%

ORB

TRB

Blocks

Minutes

Marcin Gortat

8.7

52.8

65.8

2.1

8.3

0.7

27.2

Markieff Morris

10.4

46.5

82.2

1.0

4.5

0.5

24


This graphic shows each player's strengths and weaknesses (Gortat’s scoring, FT%, and blocks, and everything with Markieff, minus his FT%). Also, note the low minutes for both players. Their reduced minutes could be due to a combination of Gortat’s age, Markieff’s injuries, and the improved play of Otto Porter (who can play small ball 4), Kelly Oubre, and, surprisingly, Mike Scott.

Looking at their advanced statistics, it’s clear that despite his struggles, Gortat is still a helpful contributor in the frontcourt with 2.6 total win shares. His defensive play (2.6 DBPM)  is more than making up for his offensive liabilities (-1.5 OBPM). On the other hand, Morris is not contributing many positives to the Wizards so far this season (-1.9 BPM and only 0.8 Total Win Shares). He returned from injury nearly 2 months ago, so his inconsistencies and generally poor play are extremely frustrating for the Wizards.

Comparing Gortat's performance this season with last year, his scoring (10.8 to 8.7), rebounding (10.4 to 8.3), and FG% (57.9 to 52.8%) have all dropped. Still, he is a solid player with his defense and his effective play in the pick-and-roll with Wall. At age 33, Gortat is certainly past his prime as a player, but with the new salary cap, Gortat's remaining contract (1 year, $13.5 million) isn’t outrageous. There should be some interest from young teams who would like to have a solid veteran big man for one season at that price. 

My Assessment of Marcin Gortat

Scoring/Shooting: C

Rebounding: B

Defensive Stats: D

Defensive Presence: C+

Biggest Strength/Contribution: Rebounding and Defense

Biggest Flaw: Lack of Defensive Stats

Although his play has been subpar this season, Morris has been a key contributor in the recent past (see last season, when he averaged 14 points and 6.5 rebounds). His current lull of 10.4 points and 4.5 rebounds has been tough to watch, though his injury, which has resulted in reduced minutes, may be a major factor. Like Gortat, he could be a solid trade commodity with a reasonable $8.6 million due next season (part of the team-friendly deal he signed when he was in Pheonix), and at 28, he is still solidly in his prime.

My Assessment of Markieff Morris

Shooting/Scoring: C

Rebounding: D-

Defensive Stats: D+

Defensive Presence: C

Biggest Strength/Contribution: Free Throw Shooting

Biggest Flaw: Rebounding

Bench

Now let's focus our attention on the bench unit. There are technically 4 backup big men on the roster, but due to lack of minutes and involvement, we will give Jason Smith and Chris McCullough incomplete grades.

 

Points

FG%

FT%

ORB

TRB

Blocks

Minutes

Iain Mahinmi

3.7

51.1

74

1.8

3.7

0.4

15

Mike Scott

9.6

57.4

71

0.7

3.6

0.2

19

Here we have a classic rebounder (Mahinmi) to pair up with a shooter/scorer (Scott). Both are role players with obvious weaknesses, but their stats show that both Mahinmi and Scott can tangibly contribute to this team in its quest for a championship. Mahinmi’s greatest strength is offensive rebounding: per 36 minutes, he is averaging 4.3 offensive and 4.5 defensive boards. But his weaknesses are just as obvious: averaging 7.5 personal fouls and 2.9 turnovers per 36. Meanwhile, based on per 36 minutes, Scott is outproducing Morris in points (18.2 to 15.6) and 3’s (1.8 to 1.5), while remaining surprisingly close in rebounds (6.7 to 6.8), which has always been a weak spot for Scott. Even though he has been hot lately, his most glaring weakness is his classic live-by-the-jumper, die-by-the-jumper game. If he's not hitting his shots, he is a major liability.

Both players’ advanced stats further demonstrate their strengths and weaknesses. Scott is providing solid offensive numbers (1.0 OWS and 0.9 offensive BPM), but his defense remains a concern (0.7 DWS and -0.8 defensive BPM). Inversely, Mahinmi provides very good defensive BPM (2.4) and awful offensive BPM (-2.3). He also offers less in win shares (1.0 total).

Scott has outperformed his minimum contract this season. Despite dealing with some ups and downs due to inconsistent play and playing time, he has proven to be a good heat check scorer who can fill it up quickly. His deficiencies are primarily rebounding and general defense.

My Assessment of Mike Scott

Shooting/Scoring: B

Rebounding: D-

Defensive Stats: D

Defensive Presence: C-

Biggest Strength/Contribution: Shooting

Biggest Flaw: Rebounding

Mahinmi's $64 million dollar contract is tough to stomach -- he will never live up to the contract. But there are clear areas in which he can help the Wizards. He the team’s only other real center, ensuring that the aging Gortat can rest. He is a solid defender and an extremely gifted offensive rebounder. However, on the other hand, he lacks serious skills on the offensive side, he commits a lot of turnovers for someone who rarely touches the ball, and he is a fouling machine. With 2 more years at his salary, it may be difficult to move him; but Grunfeld could always try to combine him with a first-round pick to entice trade partners.

My Assessment of Ian Mahinmi

Shooting/Scoring: D

Rebounding: B

Defensive Stats: C+

Defensive Presence: C+

Biggest Strength/Contribution: Offensive Rebounding

Biggest Flaw: Fouling

With some outplaying expectations and other disappointing so far, it’s clear that this is a very flawed frontcourt. Still, on paper and with good health, they are a slight improvement over last year’s big men, who helped the Wizards come within a quarter of making the Conference Finals. There are a few moveable contracts on the roster, but probably nothing that would move the needle on their own. Any significant upgrade in the frontcourt would most likely have to come at the cost of draft picks and a player like Oubre, Porter, or even Beal, depending on the caliber of big man they would look to acquire. None of those moves are likely to happen before the trade deadline, so the Wizards are most likely set with this squad. Coach Scott Brooks will need to tinker with lineups and player combinations to try to overcome each individual’s flaws. The Wizards also need to hope that Gortat doesn’t fall apart and that whatever is bothering Morris clears up. The team is talented enough to make a deep playoff push, but it will be up to Brooks to figure out this big man puzzle if they hope to take that step.

Combining for over 40 points per game so far this year, and over 46 last season, the guard play of John Wall and Bradley Beal has carried the brunt of the workload for the last few seasons and proved to be the clear-cut strength of the Washington Wizards. Wall, already the all-time leader in assists and steals for the Wizards, just became #4 all-time in scoring for the franchise and has a shot at catching legend Wes Unsled for the #3 spot by the end of the regular season. Beal has fulfilled his promise when the Wizards drafted him #3 overall and become the dynamic shooter, scorer, and secondary ball handler that the team hoped for. In order to take advantage of one of the best backcourts in the NBA and capitalize as both players enter their prime, we have to consider if the current frontcourt is good enough to help the Wizards get to the next level. What are the strengths and weaknesses of the primary frontcourt contributors? Does general manager Ernie Grunfeld need to make a trade? Let's take a closer look at the play and impact of the Wizards' frontcourt.

Starters

Generally, starters Marcin Gortat and Markieff Morris have underwhelmed with their play this season. Gortat has been more or less himself, though a less active and efficient version of himself. After a strong finish last season, Morris, who has been hampered by injuries this year, has yet to regain the effectiveness he displayed down the stretch.

 

Points

FG%

FT%

ORB

TRB

Blocks

Minutes

Marcin Gortat

8.7

52.8

65.8

2.1

8.3

0.7

27.2

Markieff Morris

10.4

46.5

82.2

1.0

4.5

0.5

24


This graphic shows each player's strengths and weaknesses (Gortat’s scoring, FT%, and blocks, and everything with Markieff, minus his FT%). Also, note the low minutes for both players. Their reduced minutes could be due to a combination of Gortat’s age, Markieff’s injuries, and the improved play of Otto Porter (who can play small ball 4), Kelly Oubre, and, surprisingly, Mike Scott.

Looking at their advanced statistics, it’s clear that despite his struggles, Gortat is still a helpful contributor in the frontcourt with 2.6 total win shares. His defensive play (2.6 DBPM)  is more than making up for his offensive liabilities (-1.5 OBPM). On the other hand, Morris is not contributing many positives to the Wizards so far this season (-1.9 BPM and only 0.8 Total Win Shares). He returned from injury nearly 2 months ago, so his inconsistencies and generally poor play are extremely frustrating for the Wizards.

Comparing Gortat's performance this season with last year, his scoring (10.8 to 8.7), rebounding (10.4 to 8.3), and FG% (57.9 to 52.8%) have all dropped. Still, he is a solid player with his defense and his effective play in the pick-and-roll with Wall. At age 33, Gortat is certainly past his prime as a player, but with the new salary cap, Gortat's remaining contract (1 year, $13.5 million) isn’t outrageous. There should be some interest from young teams who would like to have a solid veteran big man for one season at that price. 

My Assessment of Marcin Gortat

Scoring/Shooting: C

Rebounding: B

Defensive Stats: D

Defensive Presence: C+

Biggest Strength/Contribution: Rebounding and Defense

Biggest Flaw: Lack of Defensive Stats

Although his play has been subpar this season, Morris has been a key contributor in the recent past (see last season, when he averaged 14 points and 6.5 rebounds). His current lull of 10.4 points and 4.5 rebounds has been tough to watch, though his injury, which has resulted in reduced minutes, may be a major factor. Like Gortat, he could be a solid trade commodity with a reasonable $8.6 million due next season (part of the team-friendly deal he signed when he was in Pheonix), and at 28, he is still solidly in his prime.

My Assessment of Markieff Morris

Shooting/Scoring: C

Rebounding: D-

Defensive Stats: D+

Defensive Presence: C

Biggest Strength/Contribution: Free Throw Shooting

Biggest Flaw: Rebounding

Bench

Now let's focus our attention on the bench unit. There are technically 4 backup big men on the roster, but due to lack of minutes and involvement, we will give Jason Smith and Chris McCullough incomplete grades.

 

Points

FG%

FT%

ORB

TRB

Blocks

Minutes

Iain Mahinmi

3.7

51.1

74

1.8

3.7

0.4

15

Mike Scott

9.6

57.4

71

0.7

3.6

0.2

19

Here we have a classic rebounder (Mahinmi) to pair up with a shooter/scorer (Scott). Both are role players with obvious weaknesses, but their stats show that both Mahinmi and Scott can tangibly contribute to this team in its quest for a championship. Mahinmi’s greatest strength is offensive rebounding: per 36 minutes, he is averaging 4.3 offensive and 4.5 defensive boards. But his weaknesses are just as obvious: averaging 7.5 personal fouls and 2.9 turnovers per 36. Meanwhile, based on per 36 minutes, Scott is outproducing Morris in points (18.2 to 15.6) and 3’s (1.8 to 1.5), while remaining surprisingly close in rebounds (6.7 to 6.8), which has always been a weak spot for Scott. Even though he has been hot lately, his most glaring weakness is his classic live-by-the-jumper, die-by-the-jumper game. If he's not hitting his shots, he is a major liability.

Both players’ advanced stats further demonstrate their strengths and weaknesses. Scott is providing solid offensive numbers (1.0 OWS and 0.9 offensive BPM), but his defense remains a concern (0.7 DWS and -0.8 defensive BPM). Inversely, Mahinmi provides very good defensive BPM (2.4) and awful offensive BPM (-2.3). He also offers less in win shares (1.0 total).

Scott has outperformed his minimum contract this season. Despite dealing with some ups and downs due to inconsistent play and playing time, he has proven to be a good heat check scorer who can fill it up quickly. His deficiencies are primarily rebounding and general defense.

My Assessment of Mike Scott

Shooting/Scoring: B

Rebounding: D-

Defensive Stats: D

Defensive Presence: C-

Biggest Strength/Contribution: Shooting

Biggest Flaw: Rebounding

Mahinmi's $64 million dollar contract is tough to stomach -- he will never live up to the contract. But there are clear areas in which he can help the Wizards. He the team’s only other real center, ensuring that the aging Gortat can rest. He is a solid defender and an extremely gifted offensive rebounder. However, on the other hand, he lacks serious skills on the offensive side, he commits a lot of turnovers for someone who rarely touches the ball, and he is a fouling machine. With 2 more years at his salary, it may be difficult to move him; but Grunfeld could always try to combine him with a first-round pick to entice trade partners.

My Assessment of Ian Mahinmi

Shooting/Scoring: D

Rebounding: B

Defensive Stats: C+

Defensive Presence: C+

Biggest Strength/Contribution: Offensive Rebounding

Biggest Flaw: Fouling

With some outplaying expectations and other disappointing so far, it’s clear that this is a very flawed frontcourt. Still, on paper and with good health, they are a slight improvement over last year’s big men, who helped the Wizards come within a quarter of making the Conference Finals. There are a few moveable contracts on the roster, but probably nothing that would move the needle on their own. Any significant upgrade in the frontcourt would most likely have to come at the cost of draft picks and a player like Oubre, Porter, or even Beal, depending on the caliber of big man they would look to acquire. None of those moves are likely to happen before the trade deadline, so the Wizards are most likely set with this squad. Coach Scott Brooks will need to tinker with lineups and player combinations to try to overcome each individual’s flaws. The Wizards also need to hope that Gortat doesn’t fall apart and that whatever is bothering Morris clears up. The team is talented enough to make a deep playoff push, but it will be up to Brooks to figure out this big man puzzle if they hope to take that step.

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