On the Road to 57: Will the Raptors set a new Franchise Win Record?

On the Road to 57: Will the Raptors set a new Franchise Win Record?

The Raptors have 15 games to prove that they are, in fact, the best Raptors team in franchise history.

The Raptors have 15 games to prove that they are, in fact, the best Raptors team in franchise history.

Just as quickly as it began, the NBA season is winding down. The Raptors have 15 games left... 15 games to prove that they are, in fact, the best Raptors team in franchise history.

So far, Toronto has easily looked the part. They hold the first overall seed in the Eastern Conference having won 50 games and having lost only 17, good for a win percentage of .746. They're the only team in the league ranked top five in both points scored and allowed per possession.

They've revolutionized their once stagnant offense to feature more ball-movement and more threes which has directly contributed to their success. This season alone the Raptors have logged 12 games with 30 or more assists, compared to 11 such games in the previous six seasons combined. Toronto's bench has also been a revelation, picking up slack wherever needed. In fact, the bench regularly outscores opponents by 25 points per 100 possessions.

Their offensive metamorphosis and the success of Toronto's bench has been mulled over all season long so I'll spare the details here and simply recommend checking out Zach Lowe's recent article for stellar insight on this iteration of the Raps.

And while the Toronto Raptors look like the most dominant team in franchise history - having just whooped the New York Knicks 132 to 106 and then the Brooklyn Nets 116 to 102, extending their winning streak to nine games - can fans really make that claim if the team fails to surpass their own franchise win record?

On the Road to 57

The Raptors have 15 games left... 15 games to prove that they are, in fact, the best Raptors team in franchise history. To do this, the Raps will need to win at least seven more games to hit 57 wins.

Speaking purely from a probability perspective, it seems likely that the Raps will surpass this target. The Raptors only need to win 47 percent of their remaining games and they've won 74 percent of their games this season. Assuming this trend holds true, the Raps are on course to win another 11 or 12 games putting their total at either 60 or 61 wins. This is affirmed by FiveThirtyEight, a site that predicts the Raptors to finish with a record of 61 and 21.

Take into account momentum and it seems even more likely that the Raptors succeed in this final stretch. Since the beginning of February Toronto has won 16 of 18 games or 89 percent of their contests. As mentioned, they're on a nine-game win streak and show no signs of slowing down.

More than half of Toronto's remaining games are at home, another element in their favor. The Raptors have won 85 percent of their games at the Air Canada Centre this season. They thrive at home, plain and simple. Adam Fromal observes that the Toronto Raptors get a boost by nearly 10 in the plus-minus category when they play at home, adding that the Air Canada Centre hosts one of the most hostile and raucous fanbases in the NBA. It's hell for opposing teams.

Even the remaining matchups are slightly in Toronto's favor from a numbers perspective. The Raptors are slated to play against 11 different teams over the next few weeks. Their combined record against these 11 teams thus far in the season is 11 wins to seven losses.

  • TOR (1) vs. IND (1)
  • TOR (0) vs. DAL (1)
  • TOR (0) vs. OKC (1)
  • TOR (1) vs. ORL (0)
  • TOR (1) vs. CLE (0)
  • TOR (3) vs. BKN (0)
  • TOR (0) vs. LAC (1)
  • TOR (0) vs. DEN (1)
  • TOR (1) vs. BOS (1)
  • TOR (3) vs. DET (0)
  • TOR (1) vs. MIA (1)

Everything is seemingly weighted in Toronto's favor. This seems like the best Raptors team in franchise history... now all they have to do is prove it.

All stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference and NBA.com, unless otherwise stated.

Just as quickly as it began, the NBA season is winding down. The Raptors have 15 games left... 15 games to prove that they are, in fact, the best Raptors team in franchise history.

So far, Toronto has easily looked the part. They hold the first overall seed in the Eastern Conference having won 50 games and having lost only 17, good for a win percentage of .746. They're the only team in the league ranked top five in both points scored and allowed per possession.

They've revolutionized their once stagnant offense to feature more ball-movement and more threes which has directly contributed to their success. This season alone the Raptors have logged 12 games with 30 or more assists, compared to 11 such games in the previous six seasons combined. Toronto's bench has also been a revelation, picking up slack wherever needed. In fact, the bench regularly outscores opponents by 25 points per 100 possessions.

Their offensive metamorphosis and the success of Toronto's bench has been mulled over all season long so I'll spare the details here and simply recommend checking out Zach Lowe's recent article for stellar insight on this iteration of the Raps.

And while the Toronto Raptors look like the most dominant team in franchise history - having just whooped the New York Knicks 132 to 106 and then the Brooklyn Nets 116 to 102, extending their winning streak to nine games - can fans really make that claim if the team fails to surpass their own franchise win record?

On the Road to 57

The Raptors have 15 games left... 15 games to prove that they are, in fact, the best Raptors team in franchise history. To do this, the Raps will need to win at least seven more games to hit 57 wins.

Speaking purely from a probability perspective, it seems likely that the Raps will surpass this target. The Raptors only need to win 47 percent of their remaining games and they've won 74 percent of their games this season. Assuming this trend holds true, the Raps are on course to win another 11 or 12 games putting their total at either 60 or 61 wins. This is affirmed by FiveThirtyEight, a site that predicts the Raptors to finish with a record of 61 and 21.

Take into account momentum and it seems even more likely that the Raptors succeed in this final stretch. Since the beginning of February Toronto has won 16 of 18 games or 89 percent of their contests. As mentioned, they're on a nine-game win streak and show no signs of slowing down.

More than half of Toronto's remaining games are at home, another element in their favor. The Raptors have won 85 percent of their games at the Air Canada Centre this season. They thrive at home, plain and simple. Adam Fromal observes that the Toronto Raptors get a boost by nearly 10 in the plus-minus category when they play at home, adding that the Air Canada Centre hosts one of the most hostile and raucous fanbases in the NBA. It's hell for opposing teams.

Even the remaining matchups are slightly in Toronto's favor from a numbers perspective. The Raptors are slated to play against 11 different teams over the next few weeks. Their combined record against these 11 teams thus far in the season is 11 wins to seven losses.

  • TOR (1) vs. IND (1)
  • TOR (0) vs. DAL (1)
  • TOR (0) vs. OKC (1)
  • TOR (1) vs. ORL (0)
  • TOR (1) vs. CLE (0)
  • TOR (3) vs. BKN (0)
  • TOR (0) vs. LAC (1)
  • TOR (0) vs. DEN (1)
  • TOR (1) vs. BOS (1)
  • TOR (3) vs. DET (0)
  • TOR (1) vs. MIA (1)

Everything is seemingly weighted in Toronto's favor. This seems like the best Raptors team in franchise history... now all they have to do is prove it.

All stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference and NBA.com, unless otherwise stated.

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