The Spurs will face the Warriors in the first round of the playoffs. Does San Antonio have what it takes to put up a fight against the defending NBA champions?

Games this season

The Spurs went 1-3 against the Warriors this year. 

The first matchup between the two teams was on Nov. 2 in the AT&T Center. Despite a 19-point first quarter lead, the Spurs crumbled in the second half. Thanks to Klay Thompson's 27 points and five three's, the Warriors won 112-92.

On Feb. 10, the Spurs visited the Warriors in Oracle Arena. Once again, San Antonio started off hot. They built a 12-point lead and had 37 points in the first quarter. Just like the previous game, the Spurs couldn't maintain their momentum and scored just 38 points in the second half. Ironically enough, Thompson hit five three's in this game as well. Golden State beat San Antonio 122-105.

The Warriors hosted the Spurs again on Mar. 8. For the first three and a half quarters of this game, San Antonio looked solid. With 4:44 left on the clock, they lead by eight. However, Kevin Durant proceeded to score the Warriors' next 14 points, helping them to a 110-107 victory.

On Mar. 9, the two teams faced off at the AT&T Center in their final matchup of the regular season. Thompson, Durant, and Steph Curry were all injured, and Draymond Green left the game early with a pelvic injury. With Golden State left star-less, San Antonio managed to win 89-75.

Warriors scouting report

The most important thing to note from the Warriors side of things is that Curry is not expected to return during this round, per Shams Charania.

Curry is Golden State's most important player, and they are at their most vulnerable without him. Since he sustained his injury on Mar. 8, the Warriors have gone 7-10. Over the past two years, they have been 19-14 without Curry.

The two-time MVP not only spreads the floor with his incredible shooting, he also distributes. Curry is Golden State's main offensive creator. Without him, it is nearly impossible to pull off the beautiful, deadly ball movement that has made the Warriors one of the greatest teams in league history. 

Fortunately for Golden State, they don't need to be incredible to beat the Spurs. They just need to be good. 

Despite missing their most valuable player, the Warriors still have three All-Stars. Though Draymond Green has struggled this year, this trio is still scary to face. Without Curry, much of the offensive load will fall onto Kevin Durant's very capable shoulders. 

In Curry's absence, Golden State has turned to former G-League guard Quinn Cook. Though Curry left impossibly big shoes to fill, Cook is doing an admirable job holding down the fort. Since joining the starting lineup, Cook has averaged 15.6 points on 47 percent shooting. 

The Warriors have been struggling as of late. This season, they have had a defensive rating of 104.2 and an offensive rating of 112.3 Over the last ten games, they have had a defensive rating of 113 and an offensive rating of 107.6. This is a massive turnaround, and it could prove disastrous for the Warriors if this trend continues. 

Spurs scouting report

This is not the Spurs teams of yore, who always had a chance at making a championship run. This season, San Antonio barely even made the playoffs thanks to the unfortunate and mysterious injury to Kawhi Leonard. Without their main offensive and defensive threat, it's a miracle that the Spurs even made it to the postseason. 

San Antonio has no expectations coming into this series. They don't have home court advantage, are facing the reigning NBA champions, and have missed their best player for all but nine games. Unlike the Warriors, a loss in this series is not devasting and is even expected. This means we may see some especially odd lineups and tactics since the Spurs have nothing to lose. 

One major problem for San Antonio in this series is their complete inability to win on the road. They have had a 14-27 record outside of the AT&T Center this season, making it their worst season on the road since 1997. 

 Another issue is the fact that LaMarcus Aldridge is really the Spurs' only consistent offensive threat. He has been an absolute monster down the stretch, averaging 27 points, nine rebounds and 1.5 blocks over the last 15 games. However, with no spacing around him, Aldridge will likely spend a decent amount of this series double teamed. To his credit, he has managed to be incredibly efficient in this kind of setting, but it's still not ideal to rely completely on one player to get buckets.

Aldridge is one of the best low post players in the game today, which means he slows the Spurs' game way down. In addition, this San Antonio squad is jam-packed with old or unathletic (by NBA standards) players. This means that they have the third lowest pace in the NBA this season, with an average of just 94.9 possessions per game. 

The one thing that the Spurs have going for them is Gregg Popovich. Heralded by many as the greatest coach of all time, Pop knows how to win basketball games. There is no doubt that he will come up with some kind of brilliant plan to combat the Warriors in this series. 

Three keys to victory

1. Playing 48 minutes of great basketball 

In each of the Spurs three losses to the Warriors this year, they had a lead early on. However, they managed to blow those leads later on in the game as the offense stagnated and mistakes occurred. In order to have any chance at winning this series, San Antonio needs to play at their highest level the entire game. With a team like the Warriors, the Spurs simply cannot take the foot off the gas. 

2. Slow the game down

The Spurs haven't had one of the slowest paces in the league this year by accident. Their leading scorer is at his best going to work in the low post, and many of their rotation players are in their thirties. This is a team that thrives on slow, methodical possessions. The Warriors, on the other hand, are younger and considerably quicker. If this series results in lots of transition, there is no question that Golden State will have the upper hand. 

3. Win by committee

After being beaten by the Warriors on Feb. 10, Manu Ginobili perfectly summed up the Spurs' dilemma. "We understand the game," he said, per Tim Bontemps of the Washington Post. "We try to play the right way. [But] sometimes we’re just lacking a little bit in talent.”

Ginobili hit the nail on the head with this statement. The Spurs know how to play together; they simply do not have the personnel to execute in situations that require great shooting and athleticism. The best way to solve this is by playing classic Spurs basketball. Every player needs to contribute, and constant ball movement is a must. It will have to be the kind of games where six or seven players end up in double figures. If San Antonio is to have a fighting chance, they are going to need all hands on deck. 

Bonus: A healthy Kawhi 

At this point, it's looking really unlikely that Kawhi Leonard will return this season. Even if he miraculously did, it's still improbable that he would be the same MVP-caliber player that he was last year. However, if by some miracle Kawhi did return at full strength, the Spurs would have a good chance at beating the Warriors.

Important matchups

The Spurs' decision as to who should guard Kevin Durant will be crucial. As the best player in series and one of the greatest scorers in league history, Durant has the ability to win games for the Warriors without much help. Previously, Danny Green has had some success at slowing down Durant. Green's intelligence, athleticism, and balance should make up for his lack of size on Durant. 

Another option is Kyle Anderson, who has been very good at guarding LeBron James in the past. However, there's a reason Anderson got the nickname "Slow-Mow." His lack of speed would make it tough for him to get around screens and be effective on Durant for long periods of time. Rudy Gay also may spend some time guarding Durant, since he has a bit more size and length. Unfortunately, he lacks the lateral quickness to be a really effective one-on-one with the former MVP.

A second crucial matchup will be Aldridge versus Draymond Green. Aldridge basically is the Spurs' offense, and if Green can lock him down, the Warriors path will be much easier. However, Green has struggled this season and has not looked like the Defensive Player of the Year candidate we are used to seeing. Perhaps he can crank it up a notch for the postseason. If not, Aldridge will have no problem rolling over him like so many other defenders he has crushed this season.

Predictions 

1. Clutch Ginobili

Lately, Ginobili has ended up with the ball in his hands at the end of games. While sometimes this ends in a mind-boggling turnover, it is equally likely that he will make some kind of improbable play that no 40-year-old should be able to make. Many of the Spurs' wins this season are thanks to Ginobili's fearlessness when the game is on the line. With the decline of Tony Parker, and given Dejounte Murray's youth, it will most likely be Ginobili with the ball in late game situations. While it's unlikely we'll see another incredible moment like last year's "Blocked by Ginobili," there's a good chance the ageless wonder will once again be making big plays at the ends of games. 

2. No Kawhi

It's time to call this one. Kawhi Leonard is not coming back this season. There will be no miraculous return and no season-saving from the 2x-Defensive Player of the Year. The Spurs are going to have to fight this series out with the team they have. Perhaps Kawhi will be back next year to challenge the Warriors, but for now, San Antonio will have to find a way to win without him.

3. Warriors in 5

Even if Popovich has a genius scheme and the Spurs play to the best of their abilities for 48 minutes, the Warriors still just have more talent and athleticism. Though Golden State is at their weakest point in four years right now, San Antonio is having their worst season in two decades. The Spurs experience and execution could win them one game, but the Warriors should have no trouble defeating them in the end. 

Schedule

Game 1: Saturday, Apr. 14 @ Golden State, 2:00 p.m. CT

Game 2: Monday, Apr. 16 @ Golden State, 9:30 p.m. CT

Game 3: Thursday, Apr.  19 @ San Antonio, 8:30 p.m. CT

Game 4: Sunday, Apr.  22 @ San Antonio, 2:30 p.m. CT

If needed, times to be determined:

Game 5: Tuesday, Apr. 24 @ Golden State

Game 6: Thursday, Apr.  26 @ San Antonio

Game 7: Saturday, Apr. 28 @ Golden State