No one expected Kawhi Leonard’s right quadriceps tendinopathy to still be an issue at this point in the season. However, on Wednesday Spurs’ head coach Gregg Popovich told reporters that he would be surprised if Leonard came back this season. While Popovich did make it clear that Leonard is not ruled out for the season, he explained that it would be tough decision to bring someone back for the Spurs’ few remaining games.

Unfortunately, that was not the end of the drama on Wednesday night. Adrian Wojnarowski reported that Leonard spent the 10 days prior to the All-Star break meeting with specialists in New York to get a second opinion on his injury. Though Leonard has been medically cleared to return to the court, he has opted out of rejoining the active roster. If he plays again, it will be because he has decided he is comfortable managing his injury while playing.

These reports are very concerning, not just for San Antonio’s current season, but for the team’s long-term future as well. Kawhi Leonard is the best two-way player in the league today, but more importantly, he is a crucial part of the perennial contending team that the Spurs’ have built. Without him, the picture around San Antonio fills with questions.

Finishing the Regular Season

While Popovich emphasized that Leonard has not been ruled out, let’s assume that he doesn’t return for the rest of the season. What does the remainder of the season look like for the Spurs without Kawhi Leonard?

The Spurs have one of the toughest schedules in the league for their remaining 24 games. They are currently in the third seed, with the Minnesota Timberwolves less than half a game behind them. Recently, the Spurs have gone on a downward spiral, only winning one out of their last six games.

There is the distinct possibility that the Spurs could fall out of the top four seeds in the West and lose home court advantage for the postseason. The eight seed Pelicans are just three games back from the Spurs. While it’s unlikely that the Spurs will fall out of the playoff picture entirely for the first time in twenty years, it isn’t impossible in the tightly packed Western Conference. The Clippers, who are currently the ninth seed, are only three and a half games behind.

However, the Spurs do have a few things going for them. Veteran forward Rudy Gay is back, per Michael C. Wright. In addition, Manu Ginobili and LaMarcus Aldridge, who sustained minor injuries before the All-Star break, are healthy and ready to play against the Nuggets on Friday. For the first time this season, it appears that the Spurs have all of their players, except Leonard, free from injury. This should allow them to finally get into some kind of a rhythm and figure out their identity as a team.

The Playoff Picture

Most likely, the Spurs will still make the playoffs, which means they will be facing the prospect of putting up a fight in the postseason without their best player.

Last year gives us a hint as to what that might look like. In Game Five of the Conference Semifinals, Kawhi Leonard sustained an ankle injury that took him out of the game. The Spurs’ supporting cast, especially Manu Ginobili, stepped up and pulled out an overtime victory over the Rockets. In Game Six, they blew out the Rockets 114 to 75 without Leonard to advance to the Conference Finals.

We all know how that ended. The Spurs built a massive lead in Game One until Leonard stepped on Zaza Pachulia’s foot and re-injured his ankle. The Warriors then swept San Antonio with frightening ease.

If the season ended today, the Spurs would face the Denver Nuggets in the first round, who they have gone 2-1 against this year. Most likely, they would beat the Nuggets, who are a relatively inexperienced playoff team. In the Conference Semifinals, however, they would probably face the Golden State Warriors. The Spurs have yet to beat the Warriors this year, and even with a fully healthy Leonard, it is unlikely that they could beat the defending champions four games out of seven.

The Spurs will probably get bounced in the second round of the playoffs this year, but in the grand scheme of things, that’s ok. They were never going to beat the Warriors this season anyways.

Hopefully, Kawhi Leonard will be healthy by the time the next season begins, and they will get a fresh start. This offseason, the Spurs have the chance to sign some big name free agents, including LeBron James. In addition, Leonard will be eligible to sign a five-year contract extension, meaning he will not go into unrestricted free agency in the summer of 2019.

But what if he doesn’t heal? What if he doesn't’ sign the extension?

A Kawhi-less Future

It’s painful to think about, but it’s time to look at the worst case scenario. Leonard’s injury is an incredibly strange case and there’s a possibility it won’t heal this summer. According to Michael C. Wright of ESPN, even Gregg Popovich has “never, never,” seen an injury like Leonard’s before.

If the injury doesn’t heal, it is increasingly unlikely that Leonard will sign the supermax extension. Michael C. Wright and Adrian Wojnarowski reported in January that Leonard’s rehabilitation had caused him to become “distant” and “disconnected” from the Spurs.

This is highly unusual news for a franchise that has become known for its great relationships with players. Tim Duncan spent his entire 19-year career with the organization. Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker have been in San Antonio for 15 and 16 years respectively. This summer, when LaMarcus Aldridge requested a trade, Popovich had a heart to heart conversation with the star player and managed to mend their relationship. Now, Aldridge is an All-Star and having one of the best seasons of his career.

But this is a highly unusual injury, and perhaps not even Popovich can rebuild the trust between the Spurs and Leonard.

If Leonard doesn’t sign the extension, that puts the organization in a tough place. There is the option of trading him in order to prevent him from walking for nothing during unrestricted free agency. However, the Spurs definitely have a penchant for refusing to trade players.

Even if he does hit free agency, there is still a good chance the Spurs could re-sign him. But remember, this is worst case scenario, so let’s imagine that somehow, whether by trade or signing elsewhere, Kawhi Leonard is no longer a Spur after next season. Where does this leave San Antonio?

Kawhi Leonard was supposed to replace Tim Duncan, just as he took the place of David Robinson before him. If Leonard leaves, the Spurs are left without a true franchise player for the first time in the Popovich era.

Without Leonard, what do the Spurs really have? Yes, LaMarcus Aldridge is good, but he is not quite the caliber of player to lead a team to a championship. Tony Parker, Pau Gasol, and Manu Ginobili are all going to be in the Hall of Fame someday, but they are reaching the end of their careers. Dejounte Murray looks promising, but the second year player still has so much more growing left to do. Anderson, Green, and Mills are all good, but they are role players, not stars.

In modern times, there has never been a year when one could really count San Antonio out. While other teams were good for few years, the Spurs have been good for two decades to the point where it’s become a part of their identity. The idea of living in a world where the San Antonio Spurs are struggling to make the playoffs or are lottery bound is hard to imagine.

And yet, that day may be coming. If Kawhi Leonard’s injury doesn’t resolve, this could be the end of the Spurs’ era of greatness.