Sixers Trade Rumors: Is a first round pick worth a rental player?

Sixers Trade Rumors: Is a first round pick worth a rental player?

With the tradeline nine days away, the Sixers are rumored to be interested in some immediate bench help. How much should they give up?

With the tradeline nine days away, the Sixers are rumored to be interested in some immediate bench help. How much should they give up?

The Sixers are in a unique position. Not many teams have the best center in basketball, a dynamic 6'10 point guard, another number one pick who is presumably alive, draft picks, and --with some maneuverability-- can have enough cap space for a max free agent for this summer or in 2019. They have a lot of routes they can take to make sure this situation blossoms into something sustainable down the road. For all intents and purposes, the team is ahead of schedule from preseason projections. I had them winning 38 games before the season started, one because I did not expect Joel Embiid to be this healthy (he played in his first set of back to back games over the weekend!) and because this roster was basically brand new, with a lot of players not having played games together. For the Sixers to be .500 at this point in the season, largely on the backs of two young players, who have played 71 and 49 games respectively in their NBA careers, is truly remarkable.

Of course, many teams hovering around the .500 mark, both this season, and in NBA history, have glaring flaws, and those teams have some of the highest peaks, followed by the lowest valleys. The Sixers bench has been one of the hot-button issues among the fans who don't call for Brett Brown's job after every loss. Beyond TJ McConnell, and the defense not folding like a lawn chair when Amir Johnson is on the court for Joel Embiid, the Sixers really don't have productive bench players to hold the game together whenever the starters get subbed out. The lack of productive guards/wings is almost as glaring as the abundance of Bigs who can't shoot (why is Trevor Booker on this team?). Brown has tried staggering his starters, especially as of late, to try and compensate for the dropoff but sometimes a tide can't be stopped.

This team is incomplete and naturally, the Sixers are sniffing around the trade deadline for immediate bench production. New York Times' Marc Stein reported that the team is interested in Grizzlies' guard Tyreke Evans, as well as Clippers guard Lou Williams.

Evans and Williams are both having career years as they head into unrestricted free agency this summer. Which makes them hot commodities for teams looking to shore up their roster before seasons' end.

Lou Williams is averaging 23.4 points and 5.2 assists per game on 44%/38%/90% shooting splits and was pretty much the main reason why the Clippers were hovering around the 8th seed in the Western Conference before the team traded Blake Griffin. He has is having the second most efficient season of his career so far, posting a 59.5 True Shooting Percentage and so far has the highest assist percentage of his career by a mile. He has been dynamic.

Tyreke Evans is almost certainly going to have a new home after the February 8th trade deadline. He is currently being held out of games as the Grizzlies look to find a new home for him. Averaging 19.5 points, 5 rebounds and 5 assists per game, Evans is having a career year with career efficiency at a whopping 56.3 TS%. He is on a terrible Grizzlies team so he really has been the team's first and second option handling the ball since Mike Conley went down in November. It's fair to wonder if his shooting is for real, and he has had major injury issues the last few years, but you have to give him credit for the year he is having. 

The Sixers, understandably so, are very reluctant to give up a first-round pick. I've seen fans on Twitter clamor for the front office to pull the trigger, even if it means coughing up a first-round pick. Since the reports, I've been in a few twitter debates about the value of a first-round pick versus the value of a 30 game rental. So of course, I think giving up a first-round pick, even if it's protected, is pretty insane.

I understand that fans have had to be patient for a long time, and wait for the last four years of The Process to bear some results. Fans are chomping at the bit now that they have a semi-real team that can contend for a playoff spot. But I think it's important to still have perspective on what stage of the rebuild this team is in. The teardown of this team when Sam Hinkie took over in 2013, was unprecedented. No team has willingly decided to tank and rebuild for multiple seasons. It has, in some ways, warped our sense of what the timeline should be compared to most NBA teams who have gone through a rebuild historically. Sacrificing a first round pick for a 30 game rental not only wastes away an asset, it hinders the future flexibility the organization could have. And for what? Maybe two more wins this season?

You have to maintain flexibility. You never know what can happen in the future. How many times have we seen NBA stars or high-level starters become available out of nowhere? James Harden was not given enough time to agree to a contract extension in OKC and was traded to Houston. DeMarcus Cousins was traded to New Orleans last year after being assured the Kings would after him a contract extension. Kyrie Irving all of a sudden got tired of being LeBron's sidekick. Blake Griffin was surprisingly the first Clipper to be traded this year. My point is...THINGS HAPPEN IN THE NBA. Having the flexibility with the Lakers pick --which is looking more and more like it will convey to the Sixers-- in addition to their own pick, is worth infinitely more than having a rental for the satisfaction of maybe squeezing out a few more wins in a season where you're not really a contender.  

With two first rounders, you can draft one, maybe two, good players on rookie deals to supplement what has become a thin roster at the guard position. Bryan Colangelo, for all of his many flaws, has historically been a very good draft evaluator. Players developing on rookie deals will be very important down the road as Embiid/Simmons/Fultz(?) are in the middle of their second contracts and take up a large percentage of the cap. Better yet, what if a high-level starter or star, like say...Klay Thompson...happens to become available around the draft this summer? Then Colangelo would have two first rounders as bargaining chips to start a conversation.

Both of these options are way more beneficial for the team in the long run than a short-term fix of Tyreke Evans or Lou Williams, even if those players fill an immediate need right now. Even if either player wants to re-sign with the team after this season, it wouldn't be worth it. You would've locked up an older player who will inevitably have a regression from the career year that enticed a trade in the first place. They also don't fit the age timeline of the core players. You would also play yourself out of the 2019 free agency, which is realistically the last chance to have a max cap slot before the cap gets clogged with the aforementioned contract extensions of the core players. 

At most, I would give up two-second rounders --the Sixers will have four of those this draft-- and even then I would hesitate.

Trading away a first for an expiring contract is something a contender does, like the Celtics, who are also pursuing Evans and Williams. The Sixers are certainly not at that stage. It's tough to ask for fans to wait longer since that's all we've been doing for four years, but having patience and a long view is still the right approach to take here. If you can get Evans or Williams without giving up a first, I would probably do it, though it's not really pressing for me. If the Clippers or Grizzlies insist on a first round pick, I would stand pat with the team we have now. Can't cut corners, you have to do this right.

The Sixers are in a unique position. Not many teams have the best center in basketball, a dynamic 6'10 point guard, another number one pick who is presumably alive, draft picks, and --with some maneuverability-- can have enough cap space for a max free agent for this summer or in 2019. They have a lot of routes they can take to make sure this situation blossoms into something sustainable down the road. For all intents and purposes, the team is ahead of schedule from preseason projections. I had them winning 38 games before the season started, one because I did not expect Joel Embiid to be this healthy (he played in his first set of back to back games over the weekend!) and because this roster was basically brand new, with a lot of players not having played games together. For the Sixers to be .500 at this point in the season, largely on the backs of two young players, who have played 71 and 49 games respectively in their NBA careers, is truly remarkable.

Of course, many teams hovering around the .500 mark, both this season, and in NBA history, have glaring flaws, and those teams have some of the highest peaks, followed by the lowest valleys. The Sixers bench has been one of the hot-button issues among the fans who don't call for Brett Brown's job after every loss. Beyond TJ McConnell, and the defense not folding like a lawn chair when Amir Johnson is on the court for Joel Embiid, the Sixers really don't have productive bench players to hold the game together whenever the starters get subbed out. The lack of productive guards/wings is almost as glaring as the abundance of Bigs who can't shoot (why is Trevor Booker on this team?). Brown has tried staggering his starters, especially as of late, to try and compensate for the dropoff but sometimes a tide can't be stopped.

This team is incomplete and naturally, the Sixers are sniffing around the trade deadline for immediate bench production. New York Times' Marc Stein reported that the team is interested in Grizzlies' guard Tyreke Evans, as well as Clippers guard Lou Williams.

Evans and Williams are both having career years as they head into unrestricted free agency this summer. Which makes them hot commodities for teams looking to shore up their roster before seasons' end.

Lou Williams is averaging 23.4 points and 5.2 assists per game on 44%/38%/90% shooting splits and was pretty much the main reason why the Clippers were hovering around the 8th seed in the Western Conference before the team traded Blake Griffin. He has is having the second most efficient season of his career so far, posting a 59.5 True Shooting Percentage and so far has the highest assist percentage of his career by a mile. He has been dynamic.

Tyreke Evans is almost certainly going to have a new home after the February 8th trade deadline. He is currently being held out of games as the Grizzlies look to find a new home for him. Averaging 19.5 points, 5 rebounds and 5 assists per game, Evans is having a career year with career efficiency at a whopping 56.3 TS%. He is on a terrible Grizzlies team so he really has been the team's first and second option handling the ball since Mike Conley went down in November. It's fair to wonder if his shooting is for real, and he has had major injury issues the last few years, but you have to give him credit for the year he is having. 

The Sixers, understandably so, are very reluctant to give up a first-round pick. I've seen fans on Twitter clamor for the front office to pull the trigger, even if it means coughing up a first-round pick. Since the reports, I've been in a few twitter debates about the value of a first-round pick versus the value of a 30 game rental. So of course, I think giving up a first-round pick, even if it's protected, is pretty insane.

I understand that fans have had to be patient for a long time, and wait for the last four years of The Process to bear some results. Fans are chomping at the bit now that they have a semi-real team that can contend for a playoff spot. But I think it's important to still have perspective on what stage of the rebuild this team is in. The teardown of this team when Sam Hinkie took over in 2013, was unprecedented. No team has willingly decided to tank and rebuild for multiple seasons. It has, in some ways, warped our sense of what the timeline should be compared to most NBA teams who have gone through a rebuild historically. Sacrificing a first round pick for a 30 game rental not only wastes away an asset, it hinders the future flexibility the organization could have. And for what? Maybe two more wins this season?

You have to maintain flexibility. You never know what can happen in the future. How many times have we seen NBA stars or high-level starters become available out of nowhere? James Harden was not given enough time to agree to a contract extension in OKC and was traded to Houston. DeMarcus Cousins was traded to New Orleans last year after being assured the Kings would after him a contract extension. Kyrie Irving all of a sudden got tired of being LeBron's sidekick. Blake Griffin was surprisingly the first Clipper to be traded this year. My point is...THINGS HAPPEN IN THE NBA. Having the flexibility with the Lakers pick --which is looking more and more like it will convey to the Sixers-- in addition to their own pick, is worth infinitely more than having a rental for the satisfaction of maybe squeezing out a few more wins in a season where you're not really a contender.  

With two first rounders, you can draft one, maybe two, good players on rookie deals to supplement what has become a thin roster at the guard position. Bryan Colangelo, for all of his many flaws, has historically been a very good draft evaluator. Players developing on rookie deals will be very important down the road as Embiid/Simmons/Fultz(?) are in the middle of their second contracts and take up a large percentage of the cap. Better yet, what if a high-level starter or star, like say...Klay Thompson...happens to become available around the draft this summer? Then Colangelo would have two first rounders as bargaining chips to start a conversation.

Both of these options are way more beneficial for the team in the long run than a short-term fix of Tyreke Evans or Lou Williams, even if those players fill an immediate need right now. Even if either player wants to re-sign with the team after this season, it wouldn't be worth it. You would've locked up an older player who will inevitably have a regression from the career year that enticed a trade in the first place. They also don't fit the age timeline of the core players. You would also play yourself out of the 2019 free agency, which is realistically the last chance to have a max cap slot before the cap gets clogged with the aforementioned contract extensions of the core players. 

At most, I would give up two-second rounders --the Sixers will have four of those this draft-- and even then I would hesitate.

Trading away a first for an expiring contract is something a contender does, like the Celtics, who are also pursuing Evans and Williams. The Sixers are certainly not at that stage. It's tough to ask for fans to wait longer since that's all we've been doing for four years, but having patience and a long view is still the right approach to take here. If you can get Evans or Williams without giving up a first, I would probably do it, though it's not really pressing for me. If the Clippers or Grizzlies insist on a first round pick, I would stand pat with the team we have now. Can't cut corners, you have to do this right.

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