How will the Sixers hold the fort without Embiid?

How will the Sixers hold the fort without Embiid?

The Sixers are set to host Game 1 against the Heat this weekend. How can the Sixers hold the fort down until Joel Embiid gets back from injury?

The Sixers are set to host Game 1 against the Heat this weekend. How can the Sixers hold the fort down until Joel Embiid gets back from injury?

Joel Embiid has been ruled out for Game 1 against the Miami Heat, and The Sixers have to figure out how to adjust against a team that has played the Sixers tough in every game this season. It's unclear when Embiid will come back but for the back half of this 16 game win streak, the Sixers carved out some promising reps without Embiid. So there are a few things the team can carry over to the series to be able to hold the fort down until their best player comes back.

Pace. Pace. Pace.

The Sixers finished 4th in Pace at 102.20 and that accounted for the 1912 minutes Joel Embiid was on the court. Whenever Embiid is off the court and it's just Ben Simmons running the show, the Pace ticked up to 104.48. Ever since Embiid's injury on March 28th, the Sixers somehow turned the pace into overdrive, clocking in at 107.90, per NBA.com.

The Sixers have to keep up this breakneck pace, in order to generate as much easy and early offense as possible. Simmons in transition with trailer shooters and a running big has been successful, but it will be tough to do against a Miami Heat team that wants to play slow. 

On the Season the Heat take 66.6% of their shots with 15 seconds or less on the shot clock. They run multiple actions, numerous screens for Wayne Ellington, multiple Dribble Handoffs, and constant drive and kick plays. Grinding down the shot clock is why they have the 26th slowest pace in the NBA. The Heat also have the 7th best defensive rating in the NBA, so the Sixers have to find a way to speed up the game by continuing to play the great defense that they have been playing all season. 

The Heat can also throw various wings at Ben Simmons, like Josh Richardson, James Johnson, and Justise Winslow,  so it will be interesting to see how the Heat change their defensive coverages as the series goes on.

Containing Whiteside

Basketball fans are probably reading that header and are saying "what?? Whiteside?? He doesn't even close games"

Yes that's true Whiteside has definitely not been playing in closing lineups, he's been injured, and is pretty much unhappy about the lack of crunchtime minutes. Miami Heat coach Erik Spolestra likes to go with a more mobile and switchy big (Bam Adebayo) or a floor space to open up driving lanes (Kelly Olynyk).

But the truth is Whiteside has had his way with the Sixers when Embiid is not on the court. Embiid can get Whiteside in foul trouble and he can defend Whiteside and keep him off the offensive glass. 

Amir Johnson and Richaun Holmes are going to have their hands full with Whiteside in game 1. Whiteside easily outclasses Holmes in weight, and while Amir Johnson is a smart positional defender he gives up too much size as well. Whiteside has been able to catch the ball deep in the paint and has been able to be a monster on the offensive glass. Even if he doesn't get the offensive rebound himself, he occupies so much space that it leaves room for the Heat's long and lengthy wings to collect the ball. Giving extra possessions to a slow-paced team that methodically runs their offense deep into the shot clock is a recipe for losing.

Whiteside has average 27.3 minutes against the Sixers in the season series, and if Embiid isn't playing or gets in foul trouble in his return, it wouldn't surprise me to see Whiteside playing down the stretch like he did in the last two games against the Sixers.

The Sixers will need to gang rebound and do their work early to force Whiteside from catching easy stuff around the basket, and defensive rebounding is going to be key. The Sixers need to finish their defensive possessions so they can get out and run. 

Some unconventional lineups

With Embiid out of the lineup, Brett Brown might have to try unconventional lineups.

It's gotten 19 minutes of run, but I would like to see Brown try to run Ersan Ilyasova at Center, along with Dario Saric, Robert Covington, and JJ Redick/Marco Belinelli and Simmons. If that lineup can keep the rebounding at an even rate, that could be another way to run Whiteside off the court and make Spoelstra force his hand and go with the Adebayo/Olynyk.

That lineup could also be more effective at switching. Additionally, you could put Dario at center, something that hasn't been done since early in the season, and have Covington, Anderson, Redick/Belinelli and Simmons filling out the rest of the lineup. Putting shooters and wings around Simmons is always a good idea.

The team is going to have to buy time without Embiid, but since January the Sixers have had a 7.4 Net Rating with Simmons on the court and Embiid off the court. So they have the capability to do it, we'll see if that translates to the playoffs.

Joel Embiid has been ruled out for Game 1 against the Miami Heat, and The Sixers have to figure out how to adjust against a team that has played the Sixers tough in every game this season. It's unclear when Embiid will come back but for the back half of this 16 game win streak, the Sixers carved out some promising reps without Embiid. So there are a few things the team can carry over to the series to be able to hold the fort down until their best player comes back.

Pace. Pace. Pace.

The Sixers finished 4th in Pace at 102.20 and that accounted for the 1912 minutes Joel Embiid was on the court. Whenever Embiid is off the court and it's just Ben Simmons running the show, the Pace ticked up to 104.48. Ever since Embiid's injury on March 28th, the Sixers somehow turned the pace into overdrive, clocking in at 107.90, per NBA.com.

The Sixers have to keep up this breakneck pace, in order to generate as much easy and early offense as possible. Simmons in transition with trailer shooters and a running big has been successful, but it will be tough to do against a Miami Heat team that wants to play slow. 

On the Season the Heat take 66.6% of their shots with 15 seconds or less on the shot clock. They run multiple actions, numerous screens for Wayne Ellington, multiple Dribble Handoffs, and constant drive and kick plays. Grinding down the shot clock is why they have the 26th slowest pace in the NBA. The Heat also have the 7th best defensive rating in the NBA, so the Sixers have to find a way to speed up the game by continuing to play the great defense that they have been playing all season. 

The Heat can also throw various wings at Ben Simmons, like Josh Richardson, James Johnson, and Justise Winslow,  so it will be interesting to see how the Heat change their defensive coverages as the series goes on.

Containing Whiteside

Basketball fans are probably reading that header and are saying "what?? Whiteside?? He doesn't even close games"

Yes that's true Whiteside has definitely not been playing in closing lineups, he's been injured, and is pretty much unhappy about the lack of crunchtime minutes. Miami Heat coach Erik Spolestra likes to go with a more mobile and switchy big (Bam Adebayo) or a floor space to open up driving lanes (Kelly Olynyk).

But the truth is Whiteside has had his way with the Sixers when Embiid is not on the court. Embiid can get Whiteside in foul trouble and he can defend Whiteside and keep him off the offensive glass. 

Amir Johnson and Richaun Holmes are going to have their hands full with Whiteside in game 1. Whiteside easily outclasses Holmes in weight, and while Amir Johnson is a smart positional defender he gives up too much size as well. Whiteside has been able to catch the ball deep in the paint and has been able to be a monster on the offensive glass. Even if he doesn't get the offensive rebound himself, he occupies so much space that it leaves room for the Heat's long and lengthy wings to collect the ball. Giving extra possessions to a slow-paced team that methodically runs their offense deep into the shot clock is a recipe for losing.

Whiteside has average 27.3 minutes against the Sixers in the season series, and if Embiid isn't playing or gets in foul trouble in his return, it wouldn't surprise me to see Whiteside playing down the stretch like he did in the last two games against the Sixers.

The Sixers will need to gang rebound and do their work early to force Whiteside from catching easy stuff around the basket, and defensive rebounding is going to be key. The Sixers need to finish their defensive possessions so they can get out and run. 

Some unconventional lineups

With Embiid out of the lineup, Brett Brown might have to try unconventional lineups.

It's gotten 19 minutes of run, but I would like to see Brown try to run Ersan Ilyasova at Center, along with Dario Saric, Robert Covington, and JJ Redick/Marco Belinelli and Simmons. If that lineup can keep the rebounding at an even rate, that could be another way to run Whiteside off the court and make Spoelstra force his hand and go with the Adebayo/Olynyk.

That lineup could also be more effective at switching. Additionally, you could put Dario at center, something that hasn't been done since early in the season, and have Covington, Anderson, Redick/Belinelli and Simmons filling out the rest of the lineup. Putting shooters and wings around Simmons is always a good idea.

The team is going to have to buy time without Embiid, but since January the Sixers have had a 7.4 Net Rating with Simmons on the court and Embiid off the court. So they have the capability to do it, we'll see if that translates to the playoffs.

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