Lakers' Offseason Priorities Ranked: Pre-Draft

Lakers' Offseason Priorities Ranked: Pre-Draft

Given all the rumors of stars such as LeBron James, Kawhi Leonard, and Paul George linked to the Lakers, let's dive into what the franchise's priorities should be this offseason before the draft.

Given all the rumors of stars such as LeBron James, Kawhi Leonard, and Paul George linked to the Lakers, let's dive into what the franchise's priorities should be this offseason before the draft.

Plan A is almost useless without an entire alphabet of plans. Options are always important, especially if the first one does not come to fruition. Almost nothing is guaranteed. Currently, about $61.9M under the salary cap, the Lakers still have Lonzo Ball, Brandon Ingram, Kyle Kuzma, and Josh Hart under contract for at least the next two seasons. Given their first-round-pick exceptions, they could still go over the cap to sign other players (for more salary cap information on the Lakers, read my last article). Considering this flexibility and all the rumors of the Lakers being linked to stars such as LeBron James, Kawhi Leonard, and Paul George, let's rank the Lakers' priorities this offseason. 

1. Sign LeBron James

After Year 15, one of the greatest players ever had one of his best seasons ever. His 8.6 rebounds and 9.1 assists per game were both career highs. He also shot his 2nd best 2-point percentage for his career at 60.3%. Lastly, his 62% true shooting percentage and 36.7% from 3 were both the 3rd bests of his career. He is still probably the best player in the entire league. If he wants to sign with the Lakers, General Manager Rob Pelinka and President of Basketball Operations Magic Johnson should do whatever it takes.

This does not mean the front office should bend the knee to the king. Their job is to let the James run his kingdom on the court, but allow him to have some inquiries on the empire as a whole. Building a championship team is a collaborative effort and LeBron absolutely deserves some input. After all, he would be the best player on the team let alone the entire league. However, Pelinka and Johnson have to be able to say "no" when needed.

Lastly, as for concern about LeBron's age and mileage, he probably has to be given the benefit of the doubt. He just played all 82 games for the first time and has had no major injuries. Other than 2014-15, he has missed 8 or fewer games every season of his career. The longest the Lakers can sign him for is four years. Even if LeBron can only be LeBron for two or three of those years, that is still absolutely worth it because he is that great. 

2. Trade for Kawhi Leonard

In the last two "full" seasons he played, Kawhi Leonard was the only player to finish top 3 in MVP voting in both seasons. If healthy, he is arguably a top 3-5 player in the league, one of the best perimeter defenders ever, and only 27 years old. If the Lakers trade can trade for him, they almost have to do it if his medical reports check out great. Dealing for Leonard means LeBron James and/or Paul George are much more likely to join. If he was healthy and a free agent, he would probably be first on the priority list over LeBron because of their ages. However, given that they would have to give up assets for him and gamble on his quad injury, he gets bumped down a notch.

The bright side about trading for Leonard is that his value goes down as every day passes. According to ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski, he wants to be a Laker. Given that he will be a free agent next offseason, other teams will be more conservative on their offers to acquire an asset that might leave them. If the word is out that Paul George will leave OKC, the team that traded for him with one year left on his deal, teams would become far more hesitant to deal for Kawhi.

With a lower trade market value for Leonard, the Lakers would not have to give up as much. Considering LA is the only team with confidence that Kawhi would re-sign with, the Spurs will be backed into a corner without much of choice but to trade him to LA and get a couple young players in return.

3. Re-Sign Julius Randle

For those of you puzzled why this isn't titled "Sign Paul George", let's look at a statistical comparison between him and Randle per 100 possessions:

  • Points: 29.8 vs 28.9 (Advantage: George)
  • Rebounds: 14.3 vs 7.7 (Randle)
  • Assists: 4.6 vs 4.5 (Randle)
  • Turnovers: 4.7 vs 3.6 (George)
  • Effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%): 56.3% vs 52.1% (Randle)
  • True Shooting Percentage (TS%): 60.6% vs 57% (Randle)
  • Usage Rate (USG%): 25.7% vs 25.3% (George)
  • Win Shares per 48 minutes: .148 vs .145 (George)

The reason why I used per 100 possessions is that I want to adjust for pace and minutes played. Randle did not start the first 33 games of the season, even though I thought it was a huge mistake that he was coming off the bench back in preseason.

Stats in his 49 games as a starter:

  • 29.9 MPG
  • 18.6 PPG
  • 9.1 RPG
  • 3.1 APG
  • 61.2% TS%
  • 26.1% USG%
  • -1.3 net rating per 100 possessions

Stats in his 29 games playing between 30 and 39 minutes:

  • 33.9 MPG
  • 21.7 PPG
  • 10.3 RPG
  • 3.6 APG
  • 62.8% TS%
  • 26.1% USG%
  • +5.7 net rating per 100 possessions

To be clear, as of right now, Paul George is the better player than Julius Randle. He is a tremendous shooter who can volcanically erupt while being a stifling wing defender. However, Julius will turn 24 this fall while PG-13 just turned 28. Moreover, the most Randle will garner is $25M per year whereas George would probably get $30M per year. The Lakers would have Randle's bird rights which could allow them to go over the cap to sign other players. They would not have that with George. Lastly, Julius Randle is probably only getting better whereas Paul George has probably maxed out. It is not unrealistic that the young big man surpasses peaked wing either next season or the year after.

Furthermore, the free agent market for good big men is shallow outside of DeMarcus Cousins coming off his achilles injury. Wings are much more abundant. If Randle walks or is traded, the Lakers' best backup option is Brook Lopez and not much else. Wings like Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and JJ Redick are available. They could still get shooting and perimeter defense. They would lack a lot of rebounding and someone who can collapse a defense in Randle. Plus, he can switch almost everything on defense. As great of a perimeter defender as George is, he is not as versatile on defense as Randle. 

4. Sign Paul George

If he is the guy that would lure LeBron to the Lakers, then get George even if it means losing Randle. PG-13 is still a stud 3-D wing who can fit in almost any system. While I would rather have Randle than George fit next to LeBron and Kawhi, that does not mean I would be bummed out if that came to fruition. That would still be an incredible "Big 3". If the Lakers cannot get LeBron, the Palmdale native would be a phenomenal backup plan. Adding him to the young core and re-signing Randle would be a very good playoff team.

Furthermore, Paul George is better now than Julius Randle. It is not guaranteed the latter will soonly surpass the former. The goal is to win a championship, so George might be the better option in the meantime. While Randle might be a better fit, George is still a good one. The Lakers winning one championship with George falling off a cliff soon after would be heavily preferred over Julius being an all-star for several years and the Lakers coming up short every time. In the words of former New York Jets' coach Herm Edwards, "You play to win the game!"

5. Trade or Stretch Luol Deng

Luol Deng will be making $18M each year for the next two seasons. Subtract his money from the team payroll, and the Lakers would be almost $80M under the salary cap. That would allow them to sign both LeBron and George to max contracts while being able to re-sign Julius Randle. The Lakers should trade Deng even if it involves multiple current and/or future draft picks. They should not attach any of the current youngsters unless it means they can trade for Kawhi Leonard. For the Lakers, the good news is the closer to Deng's contract's expiration date, the easier it will be to trade him. Rebuilding teams with cap space such as Sacramento, Atlanta, and Chicago may be willing to take on his contract to accumulate more young talent. They should only stretch him as a last resort. 

6. Trade Down in the Draft

If the Lakers end up not trading the pick, moving down to get more picks might either make it easier to move Deng, or give the Lakers more cheap labor to be rotation players. If the team is to take on a few stars and have to move a young player to get rid of Deng's contract, finding decent, cheap players to come off the bench would be very valuable. I doubt trading up in the draft would help, but if it means getting rid of Deng's contract, then they should absolutely do it. The Lakers have four good, cheap, young players under contract that they absolutely need if they are to form a superteam.

If LA adds one or no stars, then they still have more assets to hold on to for later. If they have three picks in this draft that are all earning $1.5M or less, that lessens the need to go sign middle or lower tier free agents. 

7. Find a New Assistant Coach

The Lakers have an opening on their coaching staff since Jud Buechler left to join David Fizdale on the Knicks. It is important to add a good replacement. A head coach is only as good as his/her staff. If the Lakers cannot get a former head coach on their bench, then possibly try to pry a someone who is on another bench around the league. They could also add one from the G-League or college looking to move up the ranks. Candidates could include Coby Karl (South Bay Lakers' Head Coach), Ime Udoka (Spurs' assistant), and Damon Stoudemire (former college assistant) among others.

What to Expect

The Lakers will probably do whatever it takes to land LeBron James, Paul George, and Kawhi Leonard and trade or stretch Luol Deng. That is the obvious. As for LeBron James, recently Stephen A. Smith said Chris Paul believes LeBron "wants to be in LA". Fox Sports 1's Chris Broussard recently hopped on The Herd and said the following about the Lakers landing any of those three stars:

Furthermore, Adrian Wojnarowski recently reported about Gregg Popovich meeting with Kawhi Leonard in San Diego, the city where Kawhi played his college ball:

Also, Marc Stein said that the chances of Paul George returning to OKC is gaining some traction:

With all of this being considered, it remains to be seen whether Kawhi Leonard will be traded or not. It is tough to accurately speculate given the Spurs' rigidity to trade him to the Lakers and other teams hesitant to take on a potential rental. Paul George going back to OKC seems more likely than it did a while ago, but like Broussard says in the clip, the smart money would be on him going to the Lakers. As of now, it seems LeBron is most likely going to LA, but given the amount of mystery surrounding his decision, it is tough to predict what he will do. Even if no one comes to the Lakers, if they are healthy, they will still be much better and be a solid, fun, playoff team. Given the franchise's flexibility, is tough to see an outcome not to like.

Plan A is almost useless without an entire alphabet of plans. Options are always important, especially if the first one does not come to fruition. Almost nothing is guaranteed. Currently, about $61.9M under the salary cap, the Lakers still have Lonzo Ball, Brandon Ingram, Kyle Kuzma, and Josh Hart under contract for at least the next two seasons. Given their first-round-pick exceptions, they could still go over the cap to sign other players (for more salary cap information on the Lakers, read my last article). Considering this flexibility and all the rumors of the Lakers being linked to stars such as LeBron James, Kawhi Leonard, and Paul George, let's rank the Lakers' priorities this offseason. 

1. Sign LeBron James

After Year 15, one of the greatest players ever had one of his best seasons ever. His 8.6 rebounds and 9.1 assists per game were both career highs. He also shot his 2nd best 2-point percentage for his career at 60.3%. Lastly, his 62% true shooting percentage and 36.7% from 3 were both the 3rd bests of his career. He is still probably the best player in the entire league. If he wants to sign with the Lakers, General Manager Rob Pelinka and President of Basketball Operations Magic Johnson should do whatever it takes.

This does not mean the front office should bend the knee to the king. Their job is to let the James run his kingdom on the court, but allow him to have some inquiries on the empire as a whole. Building a championship team is a collaborative effort and LeBron absolutely deserves some input. After all, he would be the best player on the team let alone the entire league. However, Pelinka and Johnson have to be able to say "no" when needed.

Lastly, as for concern about LeBron's age and mileage, he probably has to be given the benefit of the doubt. He just played all 82 games for the first time and has had no major injuries. Other than 2014-15, he has missed 8 or fewer games every season of his career. The longest the Lakers can sign him for is four years. Even if LeBron can only be LeBron for two or three of those years, that is still absolutely worth it because he is that great. 

2. Trade for Kawhi Leonard

In the last two "full" seasons he played, Kawhi Leonard was the only player to finish top 3 in MVP voting in both seasons. If healthy, he is arguably a top 3-5 player in the league, one of the best perimeter defenders ever, and only 27 years old. If the Lakers trade can trade for him, they almost have to do it if his medical reports check out great. Dealing for Leonard means LeBron James and/or Paul George are much more likely to join. If he was healthy and a free agent, he would probably be first on the priority list over LeBron because of their ages. However, given that they would have to give up assets for him and gamble on his quad injury, he gets bumped down a notch.

The bright side about trading for Leonard is that his value goes down as every day passes. According to ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski, he wants to be a Laker. Given that he will be a free agent next offseason, other teams will be more conservative on their offers to acquire an asset that might leave them. If the word is out that Paul George will leave OKC, the team that traded for him with one year left on his deal, teams would become far more hesitant to deal for Kawhi.

With a lower trade market value for Leonard, the Lakers would not have to give up as much. Considering LA is the only team with confidence that Kawhi would re-sign with, the Spurs will be backed into a corner without much of choice but to trade him to LA and get a couple young players in return.

3. Re-Sign Julius Randle

For those of you puzzled why this isn't titled "Sign Paul George", let's look at a statistical comparison between him and Randle per 100 possessions:

  • Points: 29.8 vs 28.9 (Advantage: George)
  • Rebounds: 14.3 vs 7.7 (Randle)
  • Assists: 4.6 vs 4.5 (Randle)
  • Turnovers: 4.7 vs 3.6 (George)
  • Effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%): 56.3% vs 52.1% (Randle)
  • True Shooting Percentage (TS%): 60.6% vs 57% (Randle)
  • Usage Rate (USG%): 25.7% vs 25.3% (George)
  • Win Shares per 48 minutes: .148 vs .145 (George)

The reason why I used per 100 possessions is that I want to adjust for pace and minutes played. Randle did not start the first 33 games of the season, even though I thought it was a huge mistake that he was coming off the bench back in preseason.

Stats in his 49 games as a starter:

  • 29.9 MPG
  • 18.6 PPG
  • 9.1 RPG
  • 3.1 APG
  • 61.2% TS%
  • 26.1% USG%
  • -1.3 net rating per 100 possessions

Stats in his 29 games playing between 30 and 39 minutes:

  • 33.9 MPG
  • 21.7 PPG
  • 10.3 RPG
  • 3.6 APG
  • 62.8% TS%
  • 26.1% USG%
  • +5.7 net rating per 100 possessions

To be clear, as of right now, Paul George is the better player than Julius Randle. He is a tremendous shooter who can volcanically erupt while being a stifling wing defender. However, Julius will turn 24 this fall while PG-13 just turned 28. Moreover, the most Randle will garner is $25M per year whereas George would probably get $30M per year. The Lakers would have Randle's bird rights which could allow them to go over the cap to sign other players. They would not have that with George. Lastly, Julius Randle is probably only getting better whereas Paul George has probably maxed out. It is not unrealistic that the young big man surpasses peaked wing either next season or the year after.

Furthermore, the free agent market for good big men is shallow outside of DeMarcus Cousins coming off his achilles injury. Wings are much more abundant. If Randle walks or is traded, the Lakers' best backup option is Brook Lopez and not much else. Wings like Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and JJ Redick are available. They could still get shooting and perimeter defense. They would lack a lot of rebounding and someone who can collapse a defense in Randle. Plus, he can switch almost everything on defense. As great of a perimeter defender as George is, he is not as versatile on defense as Randle. 

4. Sign Paul George

If he is the guy that would lure LeBron to the Lakers, then get George even if it means losing Randle. PG-13 is still a stud 3-D wing who can fit in almost any system. While I would rather have Randle than George fit next to LeBron and Kawhi, that does not mean I would be bummed out if that came to fruition. That would still be an incredible "Big 3". If the Lakers cannot get LeBron, the Palmdale native would be a phenomenal backup plan. Adding him to the young core and re-signing Randle would be a very good playoff team.

Furthermore, Paul George is better now than Julius Randle. It is not guaranteed the latter will soonly surpass the former. The goal is to win a championship, so George might be the better option in the meantime. While Randle might be a better fit, George is still a good one. The Lakers winning one championship with George falling off a cliff soon after would be heavily preferred over Julius being an all-star for several years and the Lakers coming up short every time. In the words of former New York Jets' coach Herm Edwards, "You play to win the game!"

5. Trade or Stretch Luol Deng

Luol Deng will be making $18M each year for the next two seasons. Subtract his money from the team payroll, and the Lakers would be almost $80M under the salary cap. That would allow them to sign both LeBron and George to max contracts while being able to re-sign Julius Randle. The Lakers should trade Deng even if it involves multiple current and/or future draft picks. They should not attach any of the current youngsters unless it means they can trade for Kawhi Leonard. For the Lakers, the good news is the closer to Deng's contract's expiration date, the easier it will be to trade him. Rebuilding teams with cap space such as Sacramento, Atlanta, and Chicago may be willing to take on his contract to accumulate more young talent. They should only stretch him as a last resort. 

6. Trade Down in the Draft

If the Lakers end up not trading the pick, moving down to get more picks might either make it easier to move Deng, or give the Lakers more cheap labor to be rotation players. If the team is to take on a few stars and have to move a young player to get rid of Deng's contract, finding decent, cheap players to come off the bench would be very valuable. I doubt trading up in the draft would help, but if it means getting rid of Deng's contract, then they should absolutely do it. The Lakers have four good, cheap, young players under contract that they absolutely need if they are to form a superteam.

If LA adds one or no stars, then they still have more assets to hold on to for later. If they have three picks in this draft that are all earning $1.5M or less, that lessens the need to go sign middle or lower tier free agents. 

7. Find a New Assistant Coach

The Lakers have an opening on their coaching staff since Jud Buechler left to join David Fizdale on the Knicks. It is important to add a good replacement. A head coach is only as good as his/her staff. If the Lakers cannot get a former head coach on their bench, then possibly try to pry a someone who is on another bench around the league. They could also add one from the G-League or college looking to move up the ranks. Candidates could include Coby Karl (South Bay Lakers' Head Coach), Ime Udoka (Spurs' assistant), and Damon Stoudemire (former college assistant) among others.

What to Expect

The Lakers will probably do whatever it takes to land LeBron James, Paul George, and Kawhi Leonard and trade or stretch Luol Deng. That is the obvious. As for LeBron James, recently Stephen A. Smith said Chris Paul believes LeBron "wants to be in LA". Fox Sports 1's Chris Broussard recently hopped on The Herd and said the following about the Lakers landing any of those three stars:

Furthermore, Adrian Wojnarowski recently reported about Gregg Popovich meeting with Kawhi Leonard in San Diego, the city where Kawhi played his college ball:

Also, Marc Stein said that the chances of Paul George returning to OKC is gaining some traction:

With all of this being considered, it remains to be seen whether Kawhi Leonard will be traded or not. It is tough to accurately speculate given the Spurs' rigidity to trade him to the Lakers and other teams hesitant to take on a potential rental. Paul George going back to OKC seems more likely than it did a while ago, but like Broussard says in the clip, the smart money would be on him going to the Lakers. As of now, it seems LeBron is most likely going to LA, but given the amount of mystery surrounding his decision, it is tough to predict what he will do. Even if no one comes to the Lakers, if they are healthy, they will still be much better and be a solid, fun, playoff team. Given the franchise's flexibility, is tough to see an outcome not to like.

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