The Watch List: WNBA Fantasy Basketball Week 2 Preview

The Watch List: WNBA Fantasy Basketball Week 2 Preview

The first week of the 2023 WNBA season is in the books, and in some cases, things are going as expected.

The first week of the 2023 WNBA season is in the books, and in some cases, things are going as expected.

The Las Vegas Aces are once again looking like the cream of the crop, while teams like the Minnesota Lynx and Seattle Storm have taken their likely spots at the bottom of the standings as they begin their respective rebuilds. There have, however, been several players who have emerged as key contributors for their respective teams, and thus have become sneaky-good fantasy basketball pickups. What are the circumstances behind each of these breakouts, and will they last?

Atlanta Dream

Where would the Dream be without Allisha Gray? In her first season in Atlanta, Gray has gotten off to a tremendous start, leading the team in scoring (18.3) and rebounding (7) while also canning a pair of 3-pointers per game. Rhyne Howard remains productive too, averaging 17 points, 6 rebounds, and 3 assists per game, but her field goal shooting (35.2%) still leaves a bit to be desired.

Cheyenne Parker has been doing work for the Dream in the frontcourt, averaging 17 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 1.7 steals per game, and her position as the team’s starting center is about as safe as can be, with none of the Dream’s other rotation bigs (Monique Billings, Naz Hillmon, and Nia Coffey) seemingly threats to eat into Parker’s playing time.

Point guard Aari McDonald is playing heavy minutes at the position (29.9) with backup Danielle Robinson sidelined with a knee injury, but has shot the ball poorly (20%) and has yet to record a steal, which is odd for the tenacious on-ball defender.

Chicago Sky

Injuries to Isabelle Harrison (who is out indefinitely after undergoing a meniscus procedure) and Morgan Bertsch (who sustained an undisclosed foot injury in Chicago’s recent loss to Washington) have left the Sky’s frontcourt razor-thin. Alanna Smith has been the beneficiary, recording 14 points, 12 rebounds, 6 assists, and 2 blocked shots in a win over Dallas, and waiver-wire pickup Sika Koné also flashed her athletic potential in her Sky debut with 10 points and 6 rebounds.

Chicago hasn’t announced any moves to shore up its depth yet – nor has it given a timeline on the recovery for Bertsch or guard Rebekah Gardner, who’s been out with an injured foot – but regardless of what happens, Smith will likely keep getting plenty of reps as the team runs a 7-8 player rotation. Guard Marina Mabrey is also showing herself to be a stat-sheet-stuffer, totaling 42 points, 10 rebounds, and 12 assists in 60 minutes played over her last two games. Expect her workload to continue bearing a large workload.

Connecticut Sun

Alyssa Thomas has been mentioned as an early-season MVP candidate, and for good reason: the forward is putting up gaudy averages of 14.8 points, 11.3 rebounds, 4.8 assists, and 2 steals per game, and rewarding those who chose her in the first round of their fantasy basketball drafts. Brionna Jones (13 points, 8.3 rebounds, and 2 steals) and DeWanna Bonner (17.3 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 2 assists) round out the Sun’s trio of star talent, and aside from the occasional scoring of Tiffany Hayes (10.5 points, 35% field goal shooting), it’s a pretty easy bet as to which players are going to contribute most of the Sun’s production on a nightly basis.

Rookie Leigha Brown appears to have leapfrogged DiJonai Carrington as the team’s second wing off the bench (the first being Rebecca Allen, who is playing 16.2 minutes per game but shooting 25%), but neither player is going to be a significant fantasy contributor at this point.

Dallas Wings

Teaira McCowan’s breakout season has been put on hold temporarily, as she exited the Wings’ season opener with a knee injury and has not returned since. That’s actually been a bonus for forwards Natasha Howard and Satou Sabally, who have thrived in smaller Wings lineups. Sabally, in particular, is playing at an All-Star level, averaging 22 points (51.2% shooting), 8.3 rebounds, and 2.7 assists through three games. She’s also playing much more (31.6 minutes) than she ever has in the past, which is certainly promising for a player who has struggled to stay healthy throughout her career.

As for the rest of the Wings, the Arike Ogunbowale show continues: the high-volume guard leads the WNBA in scoring at 26.7 points per game (while getting up an incredible 11.3 3-pointers per game), but she’s also turning the ball over much more often (4 per game) than she has in the past. Expect at least a few of those shots to go to McCowan when she returns to the lineup.

Indiana Fever

The growing pains will be frequent for the Fever this season, and it’s not exclusive to their young players. Leading scorer Kelsey Mitchell has gotten off to a rough start, shooting 33.3% from the floor, while Erica Wheeler has been even less efficient, averaging 4.3 points on 29.4% shooting.

On the bright side, NaLyssa Smith is averaging a double-double of 15 points and 11.3 rebounds per game, while Aliyah Boston’s 14.3 points per game have been extremely efficient (66.7% shooting). Continue to lean on Smith and Boston just as the Fever do; they’ll be getting all the reps they can handle as Indiana builds around them for the future.

Las Vegas Aces

To no one’s surprise, the Aces are off to a scorching-hot start, and their core of star players has largely lived up to the billing: A’ja Wilson (18.3 points, 10.7 rebounds, 1.7 steals, and 1.7 blocks), Jackie Young (23 points and 2.3 steals), Kelsey Plum (17 points and 5 assists), and Chelsea Gray (12.7 points and 7 assists) have all more or less been just as good as they were last season, and Candace Parker is having a grand time in a low-volume connecting role, averaging 8 points, 6.8 rebounds, 1.8 steals, and 1.5 blocks.

If there’s anything to be surprised about, it’s been Kiah Stokes, who has played a key role as the aging Parker’s backup (20.4 minutes per game) while recording 8 rebounds and 1.8 blocks per game. She’s worth a look if you’re in a deeper league and need a center.

Los Angeles Sparks

The Sparks are another team that has been short-handed to open the season, though in their case, it’s been an illness running its course through the locker room, making player timelines and replacements a little harder to nail down. The team suited up just eight healthy players in its most recent loss to Las Vegas, but there are still a few things to be gleaned from the situation. Karlie Samuelson has been on fire, knocking down 66.7% of the four 3-pointers she’s attempting per game, and given that she’s the Sparks’ only wing player who is 6 feet or taller, she’s going to continue to get minutes in the mid-20s.

Rookie Zia Cooke, meanwhile, led the team in shot attempts with 14 in their blowout loss, and though her game could be considered feast-or-famine, she’s going to be getting those shots up on a short-handed team. Expect things to settle in a bit once starting point guard Jordin Canada returns to the lineup; she’s not a high-efficiency scorer either, but she’s been a great source of assists and steals for many years now, so any points you get from her should be considered a bonus.

Minnesota Lynx

The Lynx have opened the season at 0-4, and outside of the all-around excellence of Napheesa Collier (16.5 points, 6.8 rebounds, 1.8 steals, and 1.8 blocks per game), there hasn’t been much to write home about.

Jessica Shepard posts some interesting stat lines (most recently, a 4-point, 15-rebound, 7-assist outing against Las Vegas), but one has to wonder how much longer she’ll be starting and playing heavy minutes as Minnesota continues to play musical chairs with its lineups. Speaking of which, veteran wing Aerial Powers seems to be the odd player out, playing single-digit minutes in three of the team’s four games thus far; Powers is a high-volume player when she’s on the court, but those opportunities have been going to rookie Diamond Miller, who is averaging 11 points per game but has struggled shooting the basketball (31.6%).

New York Liberty

There haven’t been too many surprises early on for the Liberty. Breanna Stewart is putting up video-game numbers of 26 points, 10 rebounds, 3.7 assists, and 3 steals per game, Courtney Vandersloot has been seamlessly integrated (12.3 points on 53.3% shooting; 8 assists per game), and Sabrina Ionescu, while not tasked with nearly as much responsibility as in years past, is still posting more-than-respectable stats of 14.7 points, 7.7 rebounds, and 4.3 assists per game.

Jonquel Jones, however, has been a disappointment, struggling to stay on the court (17.6 minutes) and being ineffective in those minutes; none of Stefanie Dolson, Han Xu, or Nyara Sabally have taken advantage of this yet as bench bigs, and head coach Sandy Brondello could very well take a backup-by-committee approach for the entire season. The team mentioned that Jones has been recovering from a stress reaction in her foot, which would explain things, but regardless, she’ll need to round into form quickly as one of the earliest-drafted players across fantasy basketball.

Phoenix Mercury

The Mercury entered the season with significant concerns about their depth, and while veteran point guard Moriah Jefferson (11.7 points and 2.7 assists per game) has stepped into the tertiary scoring role behind Brittney Griner (21.3 points, 8 rebounds, and 3.7 blocks) and Diana Taurasi (18 points, 3.7 rebounds and 7 assists per game), it’s been Sug Sutton who has impressed off the bench. Playing a scoring sixth woman role, Sutton is currently averaging 12.3 points and 2.7 assists in 29.8 minutes per game, and while her 60% 3-point shooting is unsustainable, the lack of ball handlers on Phoenix’s roster means that she’s going to keep playing that role until further notice, making her an obvious early-season waiver-wire pickup.

Meanwhile, Brianna Turner’s defensive excellence remains unquestioned, but her total lack of offensive contribution (1 point per game on 0.7 field goal attempts) is another story entirely.

Seattle Storm

It’s obvious that Jewell Loyd (26 points per game and 25 field goal attempts per game) will shoot the ball as often as she wants for the rebuilding storm, and Ezi Magbegor (11 points, 8.5 rebounds, 2.5 steals, and 1 block per game) is going to contribute in most areas of the stat sheet as one of the league’s premier defensive playmakers. Just about everything else, though, is in the air for Seattle; Kia Nurse put up a goose egg in the team’s opening-day loss but came back to score 20 with six 3-pointers in their next outing. Rookie Jordan Horston, on the other hand, recorded 8 points, 5 rebounds, 3 assists, and 3 steals in the Storm’s first game, but was unable to score in their second.

It’s going to be a long season in Seattle, and it may be frustrating for fantasy owners as well as the Storm spend more time trying to instill good habits in their young players than win games.

Washington Mystics

The Mystics are a veteran team that didn’t make many changes in the offseason, so they haven’t had many surprises early in the season. Elena Delle Donne has had a monstrous offensive start, averaging 21 points on 54.1% shooting, while Shakira Austin has taken the expected second-year leap, averaging 14 points and 8.3 rebounds while upping her minutes to 27 per game. Ariel Atkins (8.8 points, 30.6% shooting) and Brittney Sykes (8.8 points, 29% shooting) are off to subpar offensive starts, but Atkins is too good of a shooter to keep that up for long, while Sykes’ impact (3.8 assists and 2 steals per game) is felt in other areas.

Watch for the team’s backup point guard battle behind Natasha Cloud; Kristi Toliver is the veteran presence, but Sykes provides just as much playmaking and much better defense, so if Toliver isn’t hitting her jumpshots, head coach Eric Thibault may just stagger Sykes into more bench lineups to get her more on-ball reps.

The Las Vegas Aces are once again looking like the cream of the crop, while teams like the Minnesota Lynx and Seattle Storm have taken their likely spots at the bottom of the standings as they begin their respective rebuilds. There have, however, been several players who have emerged as key contributors for their respective teams, and thus have become sneaky-good fantasy basketball pickups. What are the circumstances behind each of these breakouts, and will they last?

Atlanta Dream

Where would the Dream be without Allisha Gray? In her first season in Atlanta, Gray has gotten off to a tremendous start, leading the team in scoring (18.3) and rebounding (7) while also canning a pair of 3-pointers per game. Rhyne Howard remains productive too, averaging 17 points, 6 rebounds, and 3 assists per game, but her field goal shooting (35.2%) still leaves a bit to be desired.

Cheyenne Parker has been doing work for the Dream in the frontcourt, averaging 17 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 1.7 steals per game, and her position as the team’s starting center is about as safe as can be, with none of the Dream’s other rotation bigs (Monique Billings, Naz Hillmon, and Nia Coffey) seemingly threats to eat into Parker’s playing time.

Point guard Aari McDonald is playing heavy minutes at the position (29.9) with backup Danielle Robinson sidelined with a knee injury, but has shot the ball poorly (20%) and has yet to record a steal, which is odd for the tenacious on-ball defender.

Chicago Sky

Injuries to Isabelle Harrison (who is out indefinitely after undergoing a meniscus procedure) and Morgan Bertsch (who sustained an undisclosed foot injury in Chicago’s recent loss to Washington) have left the Sky’s frontcourt razor-thin. Alanna Smith has been the beneficiary, recording 14 points, 12 rebounds, 6 assists, and 2 blocked shots in a win over Dallas, and waiver-wire pickup Sika Koné also flashed her athletic potential in her Sky debut with 10 points and 6 rebounds.

Chicago hasn’t announced any moves to shore up its depth yet – nor has it given a timeline on the recovery for Bertsch or guard Rebekah Gardner, who’s been out with an injured foot – but regardless of what happens, Smith will likely keep getting plenty of reps as the team runs a 7-8 player rotation. Guard Marina Mabrey is also showing herself to be a stat-sheet-stuffer, totaling 42 points, 10 rebounds, and 12 assists in 60 minutes played over her last two games. Expect her workload to continue bearing a large workload.

Connecticut Sun

Alyssa Thomas has been mentioned as an early-season MVP candidate, and for good reason: the forward is putting up gaudy averages of 14.8 points, 11.3 rebounds, 4.8 assists, and 2 steals per game, and rewarding those who chose her in the first round of their fantasy basketball drafts. Brionna Jones (13 points, 8.3 rebounds, and 2 steals) and DeWanna Bonner (17.3 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 2 assists) round out the Sun’s trio of star talent, and aside from the occasional scoring of Tiffany Hayes (10.5 points, 35% field goal shooting), it’s a pretty easy bet as to which players are going to contribute most of the Sun’s production on a nightly basis.

Rookie Leigha Brown appears to have leapfrogged DiJonai Carrington as the team’s second wing off the bench (the first being Rebecca Allen, who is playing 16.2 minutes per game but shooting 25%), but neither player is going to be a significant fantasy contributor at this point.

Dallas Wings

Teaira McCowan’s breakout season has been put on hold temporarily, as she exited the Wings’ season opener with a knee injury and has not returned since. That’s actually been a bonus for forwards Natasha Howard and Satou Sabally, who have thrived in smaller Wings lineups. Sabally, in particular, is playing at an All-Star level, averaging 22 points (51.2% shooting), 8.3 rebounds, and 2.7 assists through three games. She’s also playing much more (31.6 minutes) than she ever has in the past, which is certainly promising for a player who has struggled to stay healthy throughout her career.

As for the rest of the Wings, the Arike Ogunbowale show continues: the high-volume guard leads the WNBA in scoring at 26.7 points per game (while getting up an incredible 11.3 3-pointers per game), but she’s also turning the ball over much more often (4 per game) than she has in the past. Expect at least a few of those shots to go to McCowan when she returns to the lineup.

Indiana Fever

The growing pains will be frequent for the Fever this season, and it’s not exclusive to their young players. Leading scorer Kelsey Mitchell has gotten off to a rough start, shooting 33.3% from the floor, while Erica Wheeler has been even less efficient, averaging 4.3 points on 29.4% shooting.

On the bright side, NaLyssa Smith is averaging a double-double of 15 points and 11.3 rebounds per game, while Aliyah Boston’s 14.3 points per game have been extremely efficient (66.7% shooting). Continue to lean on Smith and Boston just as the Fever do; they’ll be getting all the reps they can handle as Indiana builds around them for the future.

Las Vegas Aces

To no one’s surprise, the Aces are off to a scorching-hot start, and their core of star players has largely lived up to the billing: A’ja Wilson (18.3 points, 10.7 rebounds, 1.7 steals, and 1.7 blocks), Jackie Young (23 points and 2.3 steals), Kelsey Plum (17 points and 5 assists), and Chelsea Gray (12.7 points and 7 assists) have all more or less been just as good as they were last season, and Candace Parker is having a grand time in a low-volume connecting role, averaging 8 points, 6.8 rebounds, 1.8 steals, and 1.5 blocks.

If there’s anything to be surprised about, it’s been Kiah Stokes, who has played a key role as the aging Parker’s backup (20.4 minutes per game) while recording 8 rebounds and 1.8 blocks per game. She’s worth a look if you’re in a deeper league and need a center.

Los Angeles Sparks

The Sparks are another team that has been short-handed to open the season, though in their case, it’s been an illness running its course through the locker room, making player timelines and replacements a little harder to nail down. The team suited up just eight healthy players in its most recent loss to Las Vegas, but there are still a few things to be gleaned from the situation. Karlie Samuelson has been on fire, knocking down 66.7% of the four 3-pointers she’s attempting per game, and given that she’s the Sparks’ only wing player who is 6 feet or taller, she’s going to continue to get minutes in the mid-20s.

Rookie Zia Cooke, meanwhile, led the team in shot attempts with 14 in their blowout loss, and though her game could be considered feast-or-famine, she’s going to be getting those shots up on a short-handed team. Expect things to settle in a bit once starting point guard Jordin Canada returns to the lineup; she’s not a high-efficiency scorer either, but she’s been a great source of assists and steals for many years now, so any points you get from her should be considered a bonus.

Minnesota Lynx

The Lynx have opened the season at 0-4, and outside of the all-around excellence of Napheesa Collier (16.5 points, 6.8 rebounds, 1.8 steals, and 1.8 blocks per game), there hasn’t been much to write home about.

Jessica Shepard posts some interesting stat lines (most recently, a 4-point, 15-rebound, 7-assist outing against Las Vegas), but one has to wonder how much longer she’ll be starting and playing heavy minutes as Minnesota continues to play musical chairs with its lineups. Speaking of which, veteran wing Aerial Powers seems to be the odd player out, playing single-digit minutes in three of the team’s four games thus far; Powers is a high-volume player when she’s on the court, but those opportunities have been going to rookie Diamond Miller, who is averaging 11 points per game but has struggled shooting the basketball (31.6%).

New York Liberty

There haven’t been too many surprises early on for the Liberty. Breanna Stewart is putting up video-game numbers of 26 points, 10 rebounds, 3.7 assists, and 3 steals per game, Courtney Vandersloot has been seamlessly integrated (12.3 points on 53.3% shooting; 8 assists per game), and Sabrina Ionescu, while not tasked with nearly as much responsibility as in years past, is still posting more-than-respectable stats of 14.7 points, 7.7 rebounds, and 4.3 assists per game.

Jonquel Jones, however, has been a disappointment, struggling to stay on the court (17.6 minutes) and being ineffective in those minutes; none of Stefanie Dolson, Han Xu, or Nyara Sabally have taken advantage of this yet as bench bigs, and head coach Sandy Brondello could very well take a backup-by-committee approach for the entire season. The team mentioned that Jones has been recovering from a stress reaction in her foot, which would explain things, but regardless, she’ll need to round into form quickly as one of the earliest-drafted players across fantasy basketball.

Phoenix Mercury

The Mercury entered the season with significant concerns about their depth, and while veteran point guard Moriah Jefferson (11.7 points and 2.7 assists per game) has stepped into the tertiary scoring role behind Brittney Griner (21.3 points, 8 rebounds, and 3.7 blocks) and Diana Taurasi (18 points, 3.7 rebounds and 7 assists per game), it’s been Sug Sutton who has impressed off the bench. Playing a scoring sixth woman role, Sutton is currently averaging 12.3 points and 2.7 assists in 29.8 minutes per game, and while her 60% 3-point shooting is unsustainable, the lack of ball handlers on Phoenix’s roster means that she’s going to keep playing that role until further notice, making her an obvious early-season waiver-wire pickup.

Meanwhile, Brianna Turner’s defensive excellence remains unquestioned, but her total lack of offensive contribution (1 point per game on 0.7 field goal attempts) is another story entirely.

Seattle Storm

It’s obvious that Jewell Loyd (26 points per game and 25 field goal attempts per game) will shoot the ball as often as she wants for the rebuilding storm, and Ezi Magbegor (11 points, 8.5 rebounds, 2.5 steals, and 1 block per game) is going to contribute in most areas of the stat sheet as one of the league’s premier defensive playmakers. Just about everything else, though, is in the air for Seattle; Kia Nurse put up a goose egg in the team’s opening-day loss but came back to score 20 with six 3-pointers in their next outing. Rookie Jordan Horston, on the other hand, recorded 8 points, 5 rebounds, 3 assists, and 3 steals in the Storm’s first game, but was unable to score in their second.

It’s going to be a long season in Seattle, and it may be frustrating for fantasy owners as well as the Storm spend more time trying to instill good habits in their young players than win games.

Washington Mystics

The Mystics are a veteran team that didn’t make many changes in the offseason, so they haven’t had many surprises early in the season. Elena Delle Donne has had a monstrous offensive start, averaging 21 points on 54.1% shooting, while Shakira Austin has taken the expected second-year leap, averaging 14 points and 8.3 rebounds while upping her minutes to 27 per game. Ariel Atkins (8.8 points, 30.6% shooting) and Brittney Sykes (8.8 points, 29% shooting) are off to subpar offensive starts, but Atkins is too good of a shooter to keep that up for long, while Sykes’ impact (3.8 assists and 2 steals per game) is felt in other areas.

Watch for the team’s backup point guard battle behind Natasha Cloud; Kristi Toliver is the veteran presence, but Sykes provides just as much playmaking and much better defense, so if Toliver isn’t hitting her jumpshots, head coach Eric Thibault may just stagger Sykes into more bench lineups to get her more on-ball reps.

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