Week 4 Preview: 16th Nov - 22nd Nov

Week 4 Matchup Rankings


This weekly ranking is based on opponents’ points given up per possession based on pace.

4 Games 3 Games 2 Games
San Antonio
Boston
Oklahoma City
Portland
Denver
Houston
Golden State
Toronto
New Orleans
Brooklyn
Dallas
Philadelphia
Miami
New York
Detroit
Charlotte
Atlanta
LA Lakers
Milwaukee
Indiana
LA Clippers
Cleveland
Chicago
Sacramento
Minnesota
Utah
Washington

What we learned last week


Sample Size Matters

After three weeks, there have been enough games played to have confidence in emerging trends. All the people who overreacted over slow starts, bad games, and constant tease Ersan Ilyasova are now dealing with their rash moves, bad drops and lost matchups.

Now is the time to reflecting on your team makeup and your strategy for the next stretch of the season. In both roto and H2H, you should have a basic idea of your team’s strengths and weaknesses. Whether you are struggling or undefeated, now is not the time to get complacent.

Buy Low/Sell High

The most obvious phrase in fantasy sports should start applying to your everyday thinking. Now that you understand your strengths and weaknesses, it’s also time to start trending players. If you are new to fantasy basketball it might be hard to understand the value of each player, but the concept is the same as most markets.

A player is only worth what another player will buy him for. You might think a trade makes sense, but that guy might only love Kobe and hate all Boston players. What is important is that you know true fantasy value. That value will be based not just on player performance, but the net gains for your team based on its current makeup.

If you are destroying people in blocks, and someone wants to trade you Ibaka for a mid-tier point guard, you might immediately pull the trigger. But will more blocks really be valuable for your team? On the other hand, since Ibaka is considered a valuable asset to others, moving an average player in return gives you a net gain. The blocks might not help, but now you have greater assets to use as trade bait for other block-impaired teams. It’s time to get heavy into this game within the game.

Everybody is for sale

No one is too valuable, no one is untradable. Yes, trade Steph Curry, trade Anthony Davis, but first, know how you should value players. Yes, it sounds good to get Melo, Bledsoe, and Ariza for Anthony Davis, but remember, you can only roster and start a certain amount of players.

Anthony Davis does the job of 2-3 players and only uses one roster spot. It might be nice to have more good players, but if those players take three spots to fulfil the production of one player, than it might not be worth it.


What to Watch Each Day


Monday

  • Can we see some more consistency in Chicago?
  • What insane stat line will Westbrook put up?
  • How long will KD be out?

Tuesday

  • Is this the year of the big leap for the Greek Freak?
  • Is Drummond actually this good?
  • Why does no one notice how good Bosh is?
  • What is the deal with Dragic?
  • Will Golden State ever lose?
  • Wednesday

  • Can Hill or Miles stay healthy enough to produce quality value in Indiana?
  • How long can Dirk keep this production up?
  • Is Boogie seriously an elite three-point shooter? Seriously, has anyone ever made a leap in three pointers like this ever?
  • When will Boston’s frontcourt figure itself out?
  • When will Utah’s backcourt figure itself out?

Thursday

  • Get healthy CP3!
  • Seriously, Boogie is insane. How is he capable of shooting this well from beyond the arc. Is he crazy enough to force his way out of Sacramento. He owns that town. I love you Boogie

Friday

  • Is this a sell-high time for Brook Lopez? I’m afraid of his injury history.
  • #FreeBarton in Denver
  • How will the Leonard injury affect Portland?
  • What is wrong in Houston? No one believes Harden is this bad, but is this team a mess, or does it just need time to get healthy?

Weekend

  • Boogie at Orlando in the middle of the day on a Saturday. I know what I got planned.
  • Washington and Charlotte are both pushing the pace, but it is starting to affect their big man production. Does this mean permanent slips in value for Gortat and Big Al Jefferson?

If you have any fantasy basketball questions or comments follow me on twitter at @WatchTheBoxes.


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