Dallas Mavericks Fantasy Basketball Season Preview

Even with the off-season changes, this year’s Mavs should look a lot like last year. Chandler Parsons, a catch-and-shoot SF with some defensive tenacity, left for a max deal with Memphis. Harrison Barnes, a catch-and-shoot SF with some defensive tenacity, joined for a max deal. There is little about Barnes’ game that would suggest he will become any more of a driving threat than Parsons. Bogut joined but he looks to do little more than Zaza last year, except with some added rim protection. Last year the Mavs were 5th in the NBA in 3PA and percentage of total field goal attempts from behind the arc and there’s no reason to think that will change.

Sharp-shooter Wes Matthews will look to have a bounce-back year and Justin Anderson and the young journeyman Seth Curry should make sure that Dallas keeps with the modern trend of chucking tons of threes. The only wild-card that might see the team improve on their sixth place finish last year is Barnes. If there’s any movement in the standings I would predict a slight decline in performance due to injury risks like Bogut, Williams and Matthews and the fact that Dirk is 74 years old.

Player Movement

Notable Ins Notable Outs
Andrew Bogut Golden State Warriors
Harrison Barnes Golden State Warriors
Quincy Acy Sacramento Kings
Seth Curry Sacramento Kings
Raymond Felton Los Angeles Clippers
Zaza Pachulia Golden State Warriors
Chandler Parsons Memphis Grizzlies

Dallas Mavericks Depth Chart

Point Guard Shooting Guard Small Forward Power Forward Center
Deron Williams
Jose Juan Barea
Devin Harris
Wesley Matthews
Seth Curry
Harrison Barnes
Justin Anderson
Dirk Nowitzki
Dwight Powell
Quincy Acy
Andrew Bogut
Salah Mejri

Rotation Player Projections

POS PLAYER USG MPG PTS REB AST STL BLK 3PM FG% FT% TO
SG Wesley Matthews 20 32 13.6 2.9 2.2 0.9 0.2 2.6 38.8 86.3 1.1
PG Deron Williams 22 32 13.9 2.9 5.7 0.9 0.2 1.5 41.4 86.9 2.3
PF Dirk Nowitzki 24 30 16.4 6.2 1.6 0.7 0.7 1.5 44.8 89.3 1
SF Harrison Barnes 21 30 16 4.8 2.4 0.6 0.2 1.5 46.6 76.1 1.2
C Andrew Bogut 14 26 8.3 8.8 3.5 0.6 2 0 62.7 48 1.8
PF Dwight Powell 18.3 24 9.7 6.7 1 0.8 0.5 0 49.3 73.9 1
PG Jose Juan Barea 22 18 8.1 1.7 3 0.3 0 1 44.6 77.1 1.1
SG Seth Curry 17.4 14 6.1 1.2 1.3 0.4 0.1 1 45.5 83.3 0.7
PG Devin Harris 17.9 12 4.6 1.3 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.5 44.7 72.1 0.6
SF Justin Anderson 18 12 4.4 2.4 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.5 40.6 80 0.5
PF Quincy Acy 13.1 10 3.5 2.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 55.6 73.5 0.3

Position Battles

Guards

The only position where a player could win time would be on the wing. Carlisle won’t hesitate to run a three guard offense so there should be ample minutes for whoever is 3-ing and D-ing the best. For Wes’ backup I’m betting that the minutes will go to whoever has the hot hand or provides the best defensive match-up with the opposing team. Deron’s backup is equally unclear as Seth Curry can handle the ball as well as play at SG, but Barea also saw a lot of time as backup last year. Again, I don’t feel that SG or PG is a position battle that will end with one player becoming fantasy relevant. I think we’re looking at a bunch of streamers. Be sure to push around minutes on the projections calculator based on who you think will be earning the most minutes.

Rise in Value

Harrison Barnes

I’m in the camp that doesn’t think Barnes’s value will increase drastically. As I said above, I think he slots into Parsons role and more minutes should translate into noticeable bumps in 3pm, steals, and points. I don’t think his rebounds increase because of his positioning on offense, and I think his assists increase will also be marginal. It’s likely that he hovers around 2 threes a game and if he can get his steals up over one per game and push his points closer to 17 a night then he’ll be pushing 8th round value. He has shown improvement in every year he’s been in the NBA and Carlisle and Dirk have both mentioned his work ethic in interviews. Usually, extra minutes + offseason industriousness + coach and star player’s trust = breakout year but his per 36 just isn’t incredible enough to predict big things.

Andrew Bogut

The “Big down-under” is injury prone but I think he’s going to be worth reaching for this year…not like a big reach, just in the later rounds when you’re filling out the bench. He’s played over 65 games his last three seasons but it was a reduced workload with the Warriors, so he should still be considered injury-prone. He’s likely to see significantly more floor time with the Mavs and that could increase the likelihood of injury for the 32-year-old, but it could also mean a nice return on a late-round draft. There’s a potential for minutes in the high 20s if Bogut steps into Zaza’s role, plus there’s the opportunity for more time given his rim protection and overall better lane clogging. Our projections have him playing about as much as last year but with an increased usage. He’ll sneak into the top 100 if he can stay healthy.

Decrease in Value

Dirk Nowitski

Right? Doesn't he have to slow down at some point? Dirk never shows precipitous decline but it’s inevitable that with the spread of Pop-like minute-management strategies and Dirk’s age there will be a decrease in value. I don’t think it’s a big decline in points because I can’t see where else the Mavs are getting their scoring, but the rebounds and assists will continue their slow decline.

Injury Risks

Deron Williams and Andrew Bogut

Nothing specific to predict or report. These guys, especially Williams, have joints made of rock candy. They will inevitably miss chunks of games throughout the season, with Bogut only playing in 70 games once in his past 9 seasons.

Player Summaries

Dwight Powell Keep an eye on

Young and energetic with no jumper, Dwight is an intriguing streamer but little more until he gets a much bigger chunk of minutes. He’s an intelligent rebounder and a great defender but a little undersized for guarding elite bigs. Despite this, Carlisle has said he sees Powell as an integral part of his defense. If he improves his post-moves and maybe even acquires a shot then he’ll be worth keeping an eye on. If Bogut goes down I still don’t think Powell automatically becomes a starter. Maybe the offseason vote of confidence (4-year, 37 million) will inspire the youngster.

Wes Matthews Underrated

Most athletes never regain top form after an Achilles rupture. Wes had an average recovery year with moments of top form. His recovery has been slow but without major setbacks. He should be a relevant 3-and-D talent with potential for 7th-8th round value if his percentages increase along with his field goal attempts.

Deron Williams Fantasy Headache

He flirts with top 100 value with enough assists and threes to make him someone you can’t just drop, but his frequent and varied injuries are a weekly concern. In the past he never drops far enough in the draft to make him a steal, but years of disappointment could mean you see him in the twelfth or thirteenth round this year and down there he’s worth a flier.


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