Moving JR Smith to the Bench is the Right Move for the Cavaliers
Moving JR Smith to the Bench is the Right Move for the Cavaliers
Written by Kevin Nye (@kevinpnye) on 17 March 2018
Written by Kevin Nye
(@kevinpnye) on 17 March 2018
JR Smith is no longer the starting 2-guard for the Cleveland Cavaliers. It was probably time. Let's look at the reasons and ramifications of the move.
JR Smith is no longer the starting 2-guard for the Cleveland Cavaliers. It was probably time. Let's look at the reasons and ramifications of the move.
First thing's first. I love JR Smith. In an article two years ago, I openly pined for him to move into my guest room. Now that my wife and I bought a home, we have space for most of his family. He is the best. I love his personality, I love his game, and I love his infectious attitude (even if that attitude leads him to throwing soup at Damon Jones). I love that he has bought into suburban life in Cleveland. I love that he got paid. I love that he keeps having daughters. I just love JR Smith.
Ty Lue decided to send JR Smith to the bench on Tuesday, giving up Smith's starting role which he had (more or less) held since he came over from New York in 2015. The way Ty Lue handled the benching was bad. To JR's credit, he seemed to take it in stride. Of course he'd like to remain the starter, but these things happen.
JR Smith is having a very bad season
At a glance, Smith is having a bad year, and at a closer look, it's very possibly worse than bad. His points are down, his usage rate is down, his turnover percentage is up, and his defensive rating is an abomination. For just the 2nd time since 2006, JR Smith is a minus on overall +/-. According to NBA.com, the Cavs are outscored by 2.6 points per 100 possessions when Smith is on the floor and they outscore their opponents by 4.8 per 100 when he sits.
That's a problem.
He's still doing his thing when it comes to three-point shooting. He's 48% on corner threes, per Cleaning the Glass, which is excellent. However, his above-the-break three-point shooting is a paltry 32% thus far. Cleaning the Glass also has the Cavaliers being 8.0 points worse per 100 possessions when JR is on the floor vs. when he's off.
The advanced stats, unfortunately, line up pretty well with the eye test. On countless occasions, it appears that JR is a non-entity on offense and has been caught napping on defense more than ever before. The stats bear this out, as the Cavs allow a 4.6% higher effective field goal percentage when JR Smith is playing than when he's sitting. That is good for the 3rd percentile (1st percentile would be the worst possible) in the NBA. Teams even shoot an unbelievable 14% better on corner threes when Smith is out there.
Why?
I've been wondering about this for quite a while now, and I have two possible answers - one personal, one professional.
First, the professional one: JR Smith might be nearing the end of his career. We don't talk about it much because the team is full of old guys, but despite being "only" 32, JR is in his 14th NBA season. The average NBA career is about five years, so Smith is obviously a long way ahead of that.
Most guys tend to decline in their 30s, and JR's game simply hasn't adapted to that decline. Kyle Korver has aged gracefully because the only thing he's asked to do is run around screens and take catch-and-shoot three-pointers (more on this later). Richard Jefferson went the same way. Dwyane Wade remained effective in small doses. Jose Calderon is still surprisingly solid, but he only plays sparingly.
The reason we don't really acknowledge that JR might just be slowing down due to age is that he's playing alongside the inhuman specimen that is LeBron James. With LeBron defying all conventional wisdom about aging, people forget that he's the rarest of anomalies and most careers go the same path as JR's. If the Cavs turned JR into a Korver-like weapon, drawing up plays to maximize his strength, things might be different. But they don't. They have him rely on his athleticism to create his own shots (easier when you're 25 than 32) or have him on the arc as a set-shooter. The latter is fine. The former is less fine.
When watching JR Smith highlights, they don't look all that different than Korver highlights. It's a lot of catching and shooting with JR doing a touch more of shot-creation/passing than Korver might. Here's an example.
Age would also help to explain a decline in defensive ability. JR was really good as a defensive stopper in the title run of 2016. Getting 20 months older doesn't help with athleticism, but it's compounded by the fact that he missed half of last season with various injuries. There were questions about his health early this year as well. Injuries linger as you get older. Father time, as they say, is undefeated.
The second reason is the personal one: After JR Smith's daughter was born incredibly prematurely, I suspect his entire world perspective changed. I imagine that going through something like that makes basketball feel a lot less important, and if his Instagram stories about having another baby girl and having baby Dakota nap on his chest are any indication, he's just thrilled to be able to spend time with his kids. It's really cool. I kind of hope this is a reason for his lackluster 18-month stretch because it makes my heart warm. Like I said, I love JR Smith.
What next?
There's a small silver lining in the fact that JR Smith has been over 40% from deep over the past eight weeks, but there's more to consider. Since JR is having a tough time offensively, but the Cavs still believe (maybe incorrectly) that he can get his own shot when he wants, it's fine to move him to the bench.
The biggest fallout of the Kyrie Irving trade is simply that the Cavs don't have a 2nd shot-creator on offense. Jordan Clarkson works to some extent, as he can at least dribble-drive on guys and find an open shooter. Having someone to find JR is ideal, it just means he's going to remain a lesser factor.
On the other hand, Kyle Korver getting more minutes with LeBron James is fantastic for the Cavs. If I understand the CTG data correctly (and it's technically possible that I'm not, but I'm confident), the Cavaliers score 107.1 points per 100 and allow 105.3 when Kyle Korver is on the court and LeBron James is not. When LeBron and Korver play together, they score an insane 119.3 points per 100 and allow 107.
That's absurd. Korver, per NBA.com, also shoots over 9% better on three-pointers when LeBron is out there with him than when LeBron rests. He makes 48% of those threes with LeBron. It would be silly to think that 1) Kyle Korver should be getting a ton of minutes at age 36, and 2) that JR Smith should be getting fewer minutes at age 32, but the point is that the short-term fix of LeBron playing with Korver might be a very nice change of pace.
When Rodney Hood comes back, there is reason to hope that he'll improve as well. It's a small sample size, but since he came to Cleveland, Hood is having career-worst per-36 minute numbers in points, rebounds, assists, and three-point percentage. He returned to action in Portland Thursday night, but on a minutes restriction (note: this article was submitted before the Cavs/Blazers game).
In short, anyone who needs someone else to create their shot needs to play with LeBron James. JR Smith, in theory, may still be able to create his own space. In either case, JR has been wonderful in Cleveland and he will forever have a special place in everyone's heart after the summer of 2016.
First thing's first. I love JR Smith. In an article two years ago, I openly pined for him to move into my guest room. Now that my wife and I bought a home, we have space for most of his family. He is the best. I love his personality, I love his game, and I love his infectious attitude (even if that attitude leads him to throwing soup at Damon Jones). I love that he has bought into suburban life in Cleveland. I love that he got paid. I love that he keeps having daughters. I just love JR Smith.
Ty Lue decided to send JR Smith to the bench on Tuesday, giving up Smith's starting role which he had (more or less) held since he came over from New York in 2015. The way Ty Lue handled the benching was bad. To JR's credit, he seemed to take it in stride. Of course he'd like to remain the starter, but these things happen.
JR Smith is having a very bad season
At a glance, Smith is having a bad year, and at a closer look, it's very possibly worse than bad. His points are down, his usage rate is down, his turnover percentage is up, and his defensive rating is an abomination. For just the 2nd time since 2006, JR Smith is a minus on overall +/-. According to NBA.com, the Cavs are outscored by 2.6 points per 100 possessions when Smith is on the floor and they outscore their opponents by 4.8 per 100 when he sits.
That's a problem.
He's still doing his thing when it comes to three-point shooting. He's 48% on corner threes, per Cleaning the Glass, which is excellent. However, his above-the-break three-point shooting is a paltry 32% thus far. Cleaning the Glass also has the Cavaliers being 8.0 points worse per 100 possessions when JR is on the floor vs. when he's off.
The advanced stats, unfortunately, line up pretty well with the eye test. On countless occasions, it appears that JR is a non-entity on offense and has been caught napping on defense more than ever before. The stats bear this out, as the Cavs allow a 4.6% higher effective field goal percentage when JR Smith is playing than when he's sitting. That is good for the 3rd percentile (1st percentile would be the worst possible) in the NBA. Teams even shoot an unbelievable 14% better on corner threes when Smith is out there.
Why?
I've been wondering about this for quite a while now, and I have two possible answers - one personal, one professional.
First, the professional one: JR Smith might be nearing the end of his career. We don't talk about it much because the team is full of old guys, but despite being "only" 32, JR is in his 14th NBA season. The average NBA career is about five years, so Smith is obviously a long way ahead of that.
Most guys tend to decline in their 30s, and JR's game simply hasn't adapted to that decline. Kyle Korver has aged gracefully because the only thing he's asked to do is run around screens and take catch-and-shoot three-pointers (more on this later). Richard Jefferson went the same way. Dwyane Wade remained effective in small doses. Jose Calderon is still surprisingly solid, but he only plays sparingly.
The reason we don't really acknowledge that JR might just be slowing down due to age is that he's playing alongside the inhuman specimen that is LeBron James. With LeBron defying all conventional wisdom about aging, people forget that he's the rarest of anomalies and most careers go the same path as JR's. If the Cavs turned JR into a Korver-like weapon, drawing up plays to maximize his strength, things might be different. But they don't. They have him rely on his athleticism to create his own shots (easier when you're 25 than 32) or have him on the arc as a set-shooter. The latter is fine. The former is less fine.
When watching JR Smith highlights, they don't look all that different than Korver highlights. It's a lot of catching and shooting with JR doing a touch more of shot-creation/passing than Korver might. Here's an example.
Age would also help to explain a decline in defensive ability. JR was really good as a defensive stopper in the title run of 2016. Getting 20 months older doesn't help with athleticism, but it's compounded by the fact that he missed half of last season with various injuries. There were questions about his health early this year as well. Injuries linger as you get older. Father time, as they say, is undefeated.
The second reason is the personal one: After JR Smith's daughter was born incredibly prematurely, I suspect his entire world perspective changed. I imagine that going through something like that makes basketball feel a lot less important, and if his Instagram stories about having another baby girl and having baby Dakota nap on his chest are any indication, he's just thrilled to be able to spend time with his kids. It's really cool. I kind of hope this is a reason for his lackluster 18-month stretch because it makes my heart warm. Like I said, I love JR Smith.
What next?
There's a small silver lining in the fact that JR Smith has been over 40% from deep over the past eight weeks, but there's more to consider. Since JR is having a tough time offensively, but the Cavs still believe (maybe incorrectly) that he can get his own shot when he wants, it's fine to move him to the bench.
The biggest fallout of the Kyrie Irving trade is simply that the Cavs don't have a 2nd shot-creator on offense. Jordan Clarkson works to some extent, as he can at least dribble-drive on guys and find an open shooter. Having someone to find JR is ideal, it just means he's going to remain a lesser factor.
On the other hand, Kyle Korver getting more minutes with LeBron James is fantastic for the Cavs. If I understand the CTG data correctly (and it's technically possible that I'm not, but I'm confident), the Cavaliers score 107.1 points per 100 and allow 105.3 when Kyle Korver is on the court and LeBron James is not. When LeBron and Korver play together, they score an insane 119.3 points per 100 and allow 107.
That's absurd. Korver, per NBA.com, also shoots over 9% better on three-pointers when LeBron is out there with him than when LeBron rests. He makes 48% of those threes with LeBron. It would be silly to think that 1) Kyle Korver should be getting a ton of minutes at age 36, and 2) that JR Smith should be getting fewer minutes at age 32, but the point is that the short-term fix of LeBron playing with Korver might be a very nice change of pace.
When Rodney Hood comes back, there is reason to hope that he'll improve as well. It's a small sample size, but since he came to Cleveland, Hood is having career-worst per-36 minute numbers in points, rebounds, assists, and three-point percentage. He returned to action in Portland Thursday night, but on a minutes restriction (note: this article was submitted before the Cavs/Blazers game).
In short, anyone who needs someone else to create their shot needs to play with LeBron James. JR Smith, in theory, may still be able to create his own space. In either case, JR has been wonderful in Cleveland and he will forever have a special place in everyone's heart after the summer of 2016.