Life's Three Certainties: Death, Taxes, and LeBron James Beating the Toronto Raptors

Life's Three Certainties: Death, Taxes, and LeBron James Beating the Toronto Raptors

The Cavs won their 10th straight playoff game against the Toronto Raptors, this time eliminating the Raps from the playoffs in convincing fashion. While it was the Cavaliers who won, LeBron James deserves most of the credit. Here's a quick recap of LeBron, the Cavs, and what happened to the Raptors.

The Cavs won their 10th straight playoff game against the Toronto Raptors, this time eliminating the Raps from the playoffs in convincing fashion. While it was the Cavaliers who won, LeBron James deserves most of the credit. Here's a quick recap of LeBron, the Cavs, and what happened to the Raptors.

We're almost out of things to say about LeBron James. Every week it feels like there's some new mountain he's climbed, some new task he has completed, or some new highlight he has produced. There's always a new stat-line to create, a new wrinkle to exploit, or a new body to bounce off of on the way to a layup. Each passing game offers a new step-back jumper to hit, a fadeaway to swish, or a head-scratching pass to hit perfectly on the mark. Along with all of these, there are new post-game interviews to crash, new handshakes to perform with his son's friends, and new absurd fashion trends to lean into.

The only thing there has not been recently are new teams to vanquish en route to the NBA Finals. LeBron James is poised to reach the league's final series for the 8th straight time, and this time it appears he'll follow an identical route to last year. But before we worry about Boston's ability to close out Philadelphia, let's instead look back on the series that was. After the painfully long first-round series with Indiana - game 1 was on April 15th, game 7 on April 29th - the Raptors series managed to last just six days. If you blinked, you might've missed it.

What happened out there?

Well...LeBron James happened.

Some stats for your nibbling:

  • Through two rounds, LeBron's Player Efficiency Rating (PER) is 35.6, which is about 20% better than James Harden's league-leading 29.8 from the regular season
  • LeBron James averaged 34 points, 8.3 rebounds, 11.3 assists, 1.8 steals, and 1 block per game vs. Toronto
  • He shot 64% inside the three-point line
  • His fadeaway clinic in game two may go down as one of the most impressive performances of his career
  • James assisted on over 47% of the shots his teammates made while he was on the court

And he didn't even shoot the ball well! LeBron James was 3-18 on three-pointers in the series, yet the Cavs won 4-0 by a total of 56 points. The dominance happened for a few non-LeBron reasons.

Reason 1) Kevin Love reappeared after game one, averaging 25 points per game in games 2-4. He was excellent in this series, even if he missed some easy ones around the rim on a couple of occasions.

Reason 2) Kyle Korver is incredible. I've written about it before, but the Korver three-pointer is a wild thing to experience. Everyone knows it's coming, and you just can't stop it. He made 56% of his deep-balls this series - 14 of 25 - and it was somehow shocking that he didn't make more. You expect every single one to go in.

Reason 3) Good Jeff Green showed up just enough to hold things over. Green shot 44% on three-pointers, a rate which is laughably unsustainable for a career 33% guy who is only 30% over the past three seasons. I'm generally pleased when Jeff Green posts somebody up, but I cringe every time he hoists a long-ball. And yet those long-balls won game 1.

Reason 4) The Cavs took really good care of the basketball. They turned it over a total of 28 times in the series after averaging about 14 per game in the regular season. Cutting turnovers in half is a good way to win basketball games.

Reason 5) Luck, I guess. The Cavs substantially underperformed expectations in the Pacers series, and they had a course-correction this series by shooting 41% on three-pointers as a team. Similarly, the Raptors didn't play badly enough to get swept, but it happened.

The Raptors didn't play badly enough to get swept? Explain yourself, writer

OK so hear me out on this: the Raptors didn't play terrible basketball. DeMar DeRozan was a punchline in this series (more on him later), but Kyle Lowry was excellent. Jonas Valanciunas looked like a top-shelf NBA center. OG Anunoby and CJ Miles were a combined 13-28 on three-pointers. The Raptors averaged only one (1) fewer point per 100 possessions vs. the Cavs than they did in the regular season. The only issue the Raptors really had was that the Cavs caught fire. Oh, and DeRozan.

Cleveland outperformed their expectations on offense in almost every way. For example, Kyle Korver and JR Smith were a combined 25-69 on three-pointers when the nearest defender was 4+ feet away in the Indiana series. They were a combined 23-34 on those shots vs. Toronto.

Another example: Toronto missed nine shots from within three feet of the rim in the final 4:00 of game 1. I know that doesn't make it sound like they deserved to win, but they just got unlucky - missing nine point-blank shots in a row is nearly impossible. If you replayed that game, there's almost no chance they miss all of those shots again. But they did, and the Cavs escaped with a win.

There's an elephant in the room

DeMar DeRozan hasn't made a three-pointer in his last 10 playoff games against the Cavs. He panicked so hard about missing his first nine in this series that he attempted zero of them in game four. Zero. From the guy who was a newly minted three-point shooter. He also said after game two that the Raptors thrive in the face of adversity.

Oof.

I don't know what happens next, but I know it's going to be a weird summer for DDR.

Can the Cavs keep this up?

They will almost certainly not make 60% of their corner-threes for another series like they did against the Raptors. However, the Korver/Smith combination will also not shoot a lowly 36% on open three-pointers for the rest of the playoffs. Something in between the Raptors and Pacers series is to be expected going forward. Against a defensive-minded team like Boston (probably Boston, right?), the Cavs should be OK because the Celtics just can't reliably score points. I'd be surprised to see Cleveland put up 115 points, but they really shouldn't need to.

We're almost out of things to say about LeBron James. Every week it feels like there's some new mountain he's climbed, some new task he has completed, or some new highlight he has produced. There's always a new stat-line to create, a new wrinkle to exploit, or a new body to bounce off of on the way to a layup. Each passing game offers a new step-back jumper to hit, a fadeaway to swish, or a head-scratching pass to hit perfectly on the mark. Along with all of these, there are new post-game interviews to crash, new handshakes to perform with his son's friends, and new absurd fashion trends to lean into.

The only thing there has not been recently are new teams to vanquish en route to the NBA Finals. LeBron James is poised to reach the league's final series for the 8th straight time, and this time it appears he'll follow an identical route to last year. But before we worry about Boston's ability to close out Philadelphia, let's instead look back on the series that was. After the painfully long first-round series with Indiana - game 1 was on April 15th, game 7 on April 29th - the Raptors series managed to last just six days. If you blinked, you might've missed it.

What happened out there?

Well...LeBron James happened.

Some stats for your nibbling:

  • Through two rounds, LeBron's Player Efficiency Rating (PER) is 35.6, which is about 20% better than James Harden's league-leading 29.8 from the regular season
  • LeBron James averaged 34 points, 8.3 rebounds, 11.3 assists, 1.8 steals, and 1 block per game vs. Toronto
  • He shot 64% inside the three-point line
  • His fadeaway clinic in game two may go down as one of the most impressive performances of his career
  • James assisted on over 47% of the shots his teammates made while he was on the court

And he didn't even shoot the ball well! LeBron James was 3-18 on three-pointers in the series, yet the Cavs won 4-0 by a total of 56 points. The dominance happened for a few non-LeBron reasons.

Reason 1) Kevin Love reappeared after game one, averaging 25 points per game in games 2-4. He was excellent in this series, even if he missed some easy ones around the rim on a couple of occasions.

Reason 2) Kyle Korver is incredible. I've written about it before, but the Korver three-pointer is a wild thing to experience. Everyone knows it's coming, and you just can't stop it. He made 56% of his deep-balls this series - 14 of 25 - and it was somehow shocking that he didn't make more. You expect every single one to go in.

Reason 3) Good Jeff Green showed up just enough to hold things over. Green shot 44% on three-pointers, a rate which is laughably unsustainable for a career 33% guy who is only 30% over the past three seasons. I'm generally pleased when Jeff Green posts somebody up, but I cringe every time he hoists a long-ball. And yet those long-balls won game 1.

Reason 4) The Cavs took really good care of the basketball. They turned it over a total of 28 times in the series after averaging about 14 per game in the regular season. Cutting turnovers in half is a good way to win basketball games.

Reason 5) Luck, I guess. The Cavs substantially underperformed expectations in the Pacers series, and they had a course-correction this series by shooting 41% on three-pointers as a team. Similarly, the Raptors didn't play badly enough to get swept, but it happened.

The Raptors didn't play badly enough to get swept? Explain yourself, writer

OK so hear me out on this: the Raptors didn't play terrible basketball. DeMar DeRozan was a punchline in this series (more on him later), but Kyle Lowry was excellent. Jonas Valanciunas looked like a top-shelf NBA center. OG Anunoby and CJ Miles were a combined 13-28 on three-pointers. The Raptors averaged only one (1) fewer point per 100 possessions vs. the Cavs than they did in the regular season. The only issue the Raptors really had was that the Cavs caught fire. Oh, and DeRozan.

Cleveland outperformed their expectations on offense in almost every way. For example, Kyle Korver and JR Smith were a combined 25-69 on three-pointers when the nearest defender was 4+ feet away in the Indiana series. They were a combined 23-34 on those shots vs. Toronto.

Another example: Toronto missed nine shots from within three feet of the rim in the final 4:00 of game 1. I know that doesn't make it sound like they deserved to win, but they just got unlucky - missing nine point-blank shots in a row is nearly impossible. If you replayed that game, there's almost no chance they miss all of those shots again. But they did, and the Cavs escaped with a win.

There's an elephant in the room

DeMar DeRozan hasn't made a three-pointer in his last 10 playoff games against the Cavs. He panicked so hard about missing his first nine in this series that he attempted zero of them in game four. Zero. From the guy who was a newly minted three-point shooter. He also said after game two that the Raptors thrive in the face of adversity.

Oof.

I don't know what happens next, but I know it's going to be a weird summer for DDR.

Can the Cavs keep this up?

They will almost certainly not make 60% of their corner-threes for another series like they did against the Raptors. However, the Korver/Smith combination will also not shoot a lowly 36% on open three-pointers for the rest of the playoffs. Something in between the Raptors and Pacers series is to be expected going forward. Against a defensive-minded team like Boston (probably Boston, right?), the Cavs should be OK because the Celtics just can't reliably score points. I'd be surprised to see Cleveland put up 115 points, but they really shouldn't need to.

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