Cavs Trade Ideas: DeAndre Jordan? Kent Bazemore? None of the Above?
Cavs Trade Ideas: DeAndre Jordan? Kent Bazemore? None of the Above?
Written by Kevin Nye (@kevinpnye) on 19 January 2018
Written by Kevin Nye
(@kevinpnye) on 19 January 2018
The rumors quieted down, but they're starting to come back: The Cavs are a possible landing spot for DeAndre Jordan. Here I make the case for why they should not bring in the two-time All-Defense selection while also addressing a few other rumors.
The rumors quieted down, but they're starting to come back: The Cavs are a possible landing spot for DeAndre Jordan. Here I make the case for why they should not bring in the two-time All-Defense selection while also addressing a few other rumors.
It's January, baby! The weather is terrible, the games are half-meaningless, and the race to the bottom of the standings/top of the draft is rounding into shape. With that quest for anti-domination in effect, bad teams are getting ready to shed salary to good teams for draft picks or young players. In spite of their Monday performance against Minnesota, the Cleveland Cavaliers are a good team. As such, they are on the buyer's market as the trade deadline approaches.
Let's take a look at some of the names that are being thrown out there and what it would take for the Cavs to get them - or why they shouldn't get them. Or both!
DeAndre Jordan
Unquestionably, DeAndre is one of the biggest names on the market. The Clippers center is due a hell of a lot of money over the remainder of this season. He has a player option for next year and is expected to opt-out and try to sign a max-contract. For the Cavs, they need to only worry about his current $22.5 million salary for this season. Cleveland is an obvious possibility for Jordan thanks to their ever-present need for rim protection, and Jordan is a monstrous rebounder to boot.
SHOULD THEY GO FOR HIM?
DeAndre Jordan is a good player. He sets big screens, he rolls to the basket, he is crazy-efficient in the paint, he grabs everything that comes off the glass, and he pesters guys defensively. He's 7' tall, athletic as all get-out, and typically has an enormous offensive rating due to his normal average of 3-4 dunks per game. Some of them look like this.
On the downside, he has virtually no range on offense - about 85% of his field goals come from within three feet of the rim. He's efficient at those shots, but he sure doesn't space the floor, and that's what the Cavs are struggling with right now. In fact, DeAndre Jordan is effectively a better version of the very-limited Tristan Thompson. Here are some traits they share: no range, bad free throwers, good rebounders, efficient scorers (on paper), liabilities against a switch-heavy Golden State team, unable to create their own shots, and alley-oop finishers. Jordan is probably a little bit better than Thompson at all of those things. Is he better enough that the Cavs would suddenly be neck-and-neck with the Warriors, who Thompson was a ghost against in last year's Finals? Probably not.
It's an oversimplification, but Jordan's Clippers can't beat the Warriors, so even if he has good games against them (he typically only plays 22-27 minutes vs. GSW because the games are usually blowouts), his effectiveness isn't shining through. How would that help the Cavs?
Furthermore, the Clippers are in a sticky situation, as they're winning games right now. Lots of them. The Clippers are in the midst of a playoff push - only 1.5 games back from the 5th seed (although they're in 9th) as of writing this. A team like that needs something big in return for a borderline superstar player, even if Jordan is about to turn 30 and relies on his athleticism to be a factor right now. He's a very risky long-term play for any team.
Lastly, the Cavaliers own the now-famous Brooklyn pick, which is likely to land between 5 and 10 in the draft. It's sticky. The fate of the Cavs lies solely on the shoulders of LeBron James. If he's gone, the Cavs will want that pick. If he stays, they'll be glad to have traded it for a good player. But if that player leaves in the summer, as Jordan probably would? That's a wasted asset. Furthermore, it's hard to build back into a contender after a superstar leaves. Look at the Bulls - an attractive place for free agents to go because Chicago is a great city - since 1998. They should be a destination. After ten years of struggling, they landed a #1 pick who was going to turn into a stud. He even won the MVP one year. And yet, they've reached the conference finals all of one time in the past 20 years.
So even if the Cavs keep the pick and nail it - in which case they control that player's contract for up to 9 years - there's no guarantee of future success.
Verdict and possible trades: No, the Cavs should probably not go for DeAndre Jordan. It's hard to imagine he's enough of an upgrade to push them over the top against the historically great Warriors. However, if they did, here are two possible trades.
1) Jordan for Thompson, Rose (or Calderon), plus Cleveland's first-round pick this year. The Clippers would probably reject this, although they would get a mid/late first out of it and have a poor man's DeAndre in Tristan. Tristan's contract runs another couple of years and he's only 26. Cleveland gets their upgrade and keeps the Brooklyn pick. They also get a big expiring contract for this summer, freeing up (theoretical) cap room.
2) Jordan and Wesley Johnson for Thompson and Shumpert. Same reasons for DJ/TT, but this one includes a Shump/Johnson swap. It's kind of a wash, but maybe both guys need a change of scenery. For Cleveland, would you rather have Shump for $10m or Wes Johnson for $6m next year?
That's enough about DJ. He's probably not going anywhere because he would not want to re-sign in Cleveland - the LA pull is too good - and the Cavs need to take that into account. Next target.
Kent Bazemore
This has been floating around on Twitter and amongst friends lately as Kent Bazemore is doing exactly what JR Smith is supposed to be doing this season. Bazemore is hitting 39% of his three-pointers (a career best) while averaging at least 40% from the corners in each of the past five seasons. He's on a terrible Hawks team who has no incentive to keep a good player.
SHOULD THEY GO FOR HIM?
Probably? According to NBA.com/stats, Bazemore is shooting 44% on catch-and-shoot threes, which is exactly what he would be doing in Cleveland. That number is better than anyone except Kyle Korver and Jose Calderon on the Cavs (JR is at 38% and Jae Crowder is at 32%, for what it's worth).
On the other hand, Bazemore's defense is a little unclear. Per Synergy, Bazemore is a bad overall defender, ranking in the 19th percentile in points allowed per possession (PPP). Some of that is surely due to being on a terrible team with bad teammates, some is due to lack of motivation from the bad team, and some is due to being a not-very-good defender. Still, he's a plus on Defensive plus/minus, averages nearly two steals per game, and steadily racks up defensive win-shares, so the numbers may be misleading.
Verdict and possible trades: Yeah, I think the Cavs should consider this one. He would make for one more player with a reliable shot and who can guard guys under 6'8, which will help against both the Celtics and (possibly) Warriors. The simplest trade option is this:
1) Bazemore for Channing Frye and Iman Shumpert. I love Channing and I hope this doesn't happen, but for Atlanta, it would be great. Their rebuild probably doesn't include the 28-year-old Bazemore, who is under contract through next season with a player option for 2019-20. They would get Channing's expiring $7.5m and Shumpert on a $10m with a player option for next year at $11m. They could be looking at $30+ million in cap space after their top-5 pick - a chance to start a nice little process down south.
2) Bazemore and Dewayne Dedmon for Tristan, Rose, and Zizic. All the same logic applies for Tristan as did to LA, and here the Cavs get a possible replacement in the currently very efficient Dewayne Dedmon. Dedmon is 28, ranks well on both sides of the ball per Synergy, is a rebounder far more than he's a scorer, and has made 16 of his 39 three-point attempts this season (mainly from the corner). That could be very useful. Atlanta would get a nice prospect in Zizic while Rose would be salary filler for the remainder of the season.
That second option has my vote, I think.
Wesley Matthews
This was brought to my attention by a friend, as Matthews is allegedly a nice 3-and-D guy, but the deeper I look into it, the less I like it. He's a solid three-point shooter and an agitating defender due to his athleticism, but that doesn't necessarily make him a good defender. He's defending shots a little better than the guys the Cavs currently have - and about 4% better than Bazemore - and he's been solid against three-pointers (opponents are making just under 33% of them). But he's older, and he's expensive.
SHOULD THEY GO FOR HIM?
Actually no, I don't think so. He's owed over $18m next season, and that's just asking for trouble with the uncertainty surrounding the Cavs. They'd have to give up a lot to get him...unless...hang on a second.
1) Matthews and DWIGHT POWELL, MY LOVE for Tristan and Shumpert. I love Dwight Powell. I have no idea why. He could be new Tristan and erase the fact that I don't think Matthews is enough better than Shumpert to pull the trigger on this deal. Even if Powell is less useful than Thompson (is he? I don't know), he does have a bizarrely good DRtg for a team that objectively sucks. This could actually work out to make my weird obsession with this player come true.
2) Matthews and Nerlens Noel for Tristan and Derrick Rose. This is kind of appealing. There have been murmurs of LeBron wanting to play with Noel next year, so imagine if he could give it a test run this year. Dallas clearly doesn't want Nerlens, although Thompson could be a little redundant with Powell around. This one works financially, but it's hard to see how adding another wing without getting rid of one could really put the Cavs over the hump. Dallas would actually cut a few million dollars from their payroll this season, but it's probably not enough to move the needle.
Derrick Favors
Favors' name came up a month or two ago when talking with some other HTB writers, and it has come up again this week as Woj dropped his name in a trade rumor roundup. There are a few hiccups with Favors, but they surround the idea that he's an expiring contract and Utah wants something valuable in return. He's a solid player, averaging 16 points and 9 rebounds per 36 minutes. He's a fairly efficient scorer, he plays on an elite defense, and he has flirted with adding range to his jumper.
But again, Utah will want something for him that's more appealing than Iman Shumpert or Channing Frye. For the Cavs, that might need to be their own first rounder. More likely, it would evolve into a three-way trade that allows Utah to shed Favors, pull in a pick or two, and not be saddled with another contract. A totally fake example of this would be...
Derrick Favors to Cleveland, Iman Shumpert to Dallas, Dwight Powell and Cleveland's first-round pick to Utah. That's not enough for Dallas, so maybe they can get an additional pick or player out of this, or some type of cash/trade exception. In either case, I don't feel like this is likely enough to explore the ins and outs of how it would work.
Matthew Dellavedova
Bring him home.
Overall verdict
The Cavs are probably not going to make a big trade at the deadline. Keep the pick, keep the flexibility going forward, work out the kinks with what is currently a screwed up rotation, and live to fight another day.
It's January, baby! The weather is terrible, the games are half-meaningless, and the race to the bottom of the standings/top of the draft is rounding into shape. With that quest for anti-domination in effect, bad teams are getting ready to shed salary to good teams for draft picks or young players. In spite of their Monday performance against Minnesota, the Cleveland Cavaliers are a good team. As such, they are on the buyer's market as the trade deadline approaches.
Let's take a look at some of the names that are being thrown out there and what it would take for the Cavs to get them - or why they shouldn't get them. Or both!
DeAndre Jordan
Unquestionably, DeAndre is one of the biggest names on the market. The Clippers center is due a hell of a lot of money over the remainder of this season. He has a player option for next year and is expected to opt-out and try to sign a max-contract. For the Cavs, they need to only worry about his current $22.5 million salary for this season. Cleveland is an obvious possibility for Jordan thanks to their ever-present need for rim protection, and Jordan is a monstrous rebounder to boot.
SHOULD THEY GO FOR HIM?
DeAndre Jordan is a good player. He sets big screens, he rolls to the basket, he is crazy-efficient in the paint, he grabs everything that comes off the glass, and he pesters guys defensively. He's 7' tall, athletic as all get-out, and typically has an enormous offensive rating due to his normal average of 3-4 dunks per game. Some of them look like this.
On the downside, he has virtually no range on offense - about 85% of his field goals come from within three feet of the rim. He's efficient at those shots, but he sure doesn't space the floor, and that's what the Cavs are struggling with right now. In fact, DeAndre Jordan is effectively a better version of the very-limited Tristan Thompson. Here are some traits they share: no range, bad free throwers, good rebounders, efficient scorers (on paper), liabilities against a switch-heavy Golden State team, unable to create their own shots, and alley-oop finishers. Jordan is probably a little bit better than Thompson at all of those things. Is he better enough that the Cavs would suddenly be neck-and-neck with the Warriors, who Thompson was a ghost against in last year's Finals? Probably not.
It's an oversimplification, but Jordan's Clippers can't beat the Warriors, so even if he has good games against them (he typically only plays 22-27 minutes vs. GSW because the games are usually blowouts), his effectiveness isn't shining through. How would that help the Cavs?
Furthermore, the Clippers are in a sticky situation, as they're winning games right now. Lots of them. The Clippers are in the midst of a playoff push - only 1.5 games back from the 5th seed (although they're in 9th) as of writing this. A team like that needs something big in return for a borderline superstar player, even if Jordan is about to turn 30 and relies on his athleticism to be a factor right now. He's a very risky long-term play for any team.
Lastly, the Cavaliers own the now-famous Brooklyn pick, which is likely to land between 5 and 10 in the draft. It's sticky. The fate of the Cavs lies solely on the shoulders of LeBron James. If he's gone, the Cavs will want that pick. If he stays, they'll be glad to have traded it for a good player. But if that player leaves in the summer, as Jordan probably would? That's a wasted asset. Furthermore, it's hard to build back into a contender after a superstar leaves. Look at the Bulls - an attractive place for free agents to go because Chicago is a great city - since 1998. They should be a destination. After ten years of struggling, they landed a #1 pick who was going to turn into a stud. He even won the MVP one year. And yet, they've reached the conference finals all of one time in the past 20 years.
So even if the Cavs keep the pick and nail it - in which case they control that player's contract for up to 9 years - there's no guarantee of future success.
Verdict and possible trades: No, the Cavs should probably not go for DeAndre Jordan. It's hard to imagine he's enough of an upgrade to push them over the top against the historically great Warriors. However, if they did, here are two possible trades.
1) Jordan for Thompson, Rose (or Calderon), plus Cleveland's first-round pick this year. The Clippers would probably reject this, although they would get a mid/late first out of it and have a poor man's DeAndre in Tristan. Tristan's contract runs another couple of years and he's only 26. Cleveland gets their upgrade and keeps the Brooklyn pick. They also get a big expiring contract for this summer, freeing up (theoretical) cap room.
2) Jordan and Wesley Johnson for Thompson and Shumpert. Same reasons for DJ/TT, but this one includes a Shump/Johnson swap. It's kind of a wash, but maybe both guys need a change of scenery. For Cleveland, would you rather have Shump for $10m or Wes Johnson for $6m next year?
That's enough about DJ. He's probably not going anywhere because he would not want to re-sign in Cleveland - the LA pull is too good - and the Cavs need to take that into account. Next target.
Kent Bazemore
This has been floating around on Twitter and amongst friends lately as Kent Bazemore is doing exactly what JR Smith is supposed to be doing this season. Bazemore is hitting 39% of his three-pointers (a career best) while averaging at least 40% from the corners in each of the past five seasons. He's on a terrible Hawks team who has no incentive to keep a good player.
SHOULD THEY GO FOR HIM?
Probably? According to NBA.com/stats, Bazemore is shooting 44% on catch-and-shoot threes, which is exactly what he would be doing in Cleveland. That number is better than anyone except Kyle Korver and Jose Calderon on the Cavs (JR is at 38% and Jae Crowder is at 32%, for what it's worth).
On the other hand, Bazemore's defense is a little unclear. Per Synergy, Bazemore is a bad overall defender, ranking in the 19th percentile in points allowed per possession (PPP). Some of that is surely due to being on a terrible team with bad teammates, some is due to lack of motivation from the bad team, and some is due to being a not-very-good defender. Still, he's a plus on Defensive plus/minus, averages nearly two steals per game, and steadily racks up defensive win-shares, so the numbers may be misleading.
Verdict and possible trades: Yeah, I think the Cavs should consider this one. He would make for one more player with a reliable shot and who can guard guys under 6'8, which will help against both the Celtics and (possibly) Warriors. The simplest trade option is this:
1) Bazemore for Channing Frye and Iman Shumpert. I love Channing and I hope this doesn't happen, but for Atlanta, it would be great. Their rebuild probably doesn't include the 28-year-old Bazemore, who is under contract through next season with a player option for 2019-20. They would get Channing's expiring $7.5m and Shumpert on a $10m with a player option for next year at $11m. They could be looking at $30+ million in cap space after their top-5 pick - a chance to start a nice little process down south.
2) Bazemore and Dewayne Dedmon for Tristan, Rose, and Zizic. All the same logic applies for Tristan as did to LA, and here the Cavs get a possible replacement in the currently very efficient Dewayne Dedmon. Dedmon is 28, ranks well on both sides of the ball per Synergy, is a rebounder far more than he's a scorer, and has made 16 of his 39 three-point attempts this season (mainly from the corner). That could be very useful. Atlanta would get a nice prospect in Zizic while Rose would be salary filler for the remainder of the season.
That second option has my vote, I think.
Wesley Matthews
This was brought to my attention by a friend, as Matthews is allegedly a nice 3-and-D guy, but the deeper I look into it, the less I like it. He's a solid three-point shooter and an agitating defender due to his athleticism, but that doesn't necessarily make him a good defender. He's defending shots a little better than the guys the Cavs currently have - and about 4% better than Bazemore - and he's been solid against three-pointers (opponents are making just under 33% of them). But he's older, and he's expensive.
SHOULD THEY GO FOR HIM?
Actually no, I don't think so. He's owed over $18m next season, and that's just asking for trouble with the uncertainty surrounding the Cavs. They'd have to give up a lot to get him...unless...hang on a second.
1) Matthews and DWIGHT POWELL, MY LOVE for Tristan and Shumpert. I love Dwight Powell. I have no idea why. He could be new Tristan and erase the fact that I don't think Matthews is enough better than Shumpert to pull the trigger on this deal. Even if Powell is less useful than Thompson (is he? I don't know), he does have a bizarrely good DRtg for a team that objectively sucks. This could actually work out to make my weird obsession with this player come true.
2) Matthews and Nerlens Noel for Tristan and Derrick Rose. This is kind of appealing. There have been murmurs of LeBron wanting to play with Noel next year, so imagine if he could give it a test run this year. Dallas clearly doesn't want Nerlens, although Thompson could be a little redundant with Powell around. This one works financially, but it's hard to see how adding another wing without getting rid of one could really put the Cavs over the hump. Dallas would actually cut a few million dollars from their payroll this season, but it's probably not enough to move the needle.
Derrick Favors
Favors' name came up a month or two ago when talking with some other HTB writers, and it has come up again this week as Woj dropped his name in a trade rumor roundup. There are a few hiccups with Favors, but they surround the idea that he's an expiring contract and Utah wants something valuable in return. He's a solid player, averaging 16 points and 9 rebounds per 36 minutes. He's a fairly efficient scorer, he plays on an elite defense, and he has flirted with adding range to his jumper.
But again, Utah will want something for him that's more appealing than Iman Shumpert or Channing Frye. For the Cavs, that might need to be their own first rounder. More likely, it would evolve into a three-way trade that allows Utah to shed Favors, pull in a pick or two, and not be saddled with another contract. A totally fake example of this would be...
Derrick Favors to Cleveland, Iman Shumpert to Dallas, Dwight Powell and Cleveland's first-round pick to Utah. That's not enough for Dallas, so maybe they can get an additional pick or player out of this, or some type of cash/trade exception. In either case, I don't feel like this is likely enough to explore the ins and outs of how it would work.
Matthew Dellavedova
Bring him home.
Overall verdict
The Cavs are probably not going to make a big trade at the deadline. Keep the pick, keep the flexibility going forward, work out the kinks with what is currently a screwed up rotation, and live to fight another day.