Boston Celtics rookie Jayson Tatum has built a strong case to become 2018’s rookie of the year  with his efficient scoring to complement is solid defense. Ben Simmons, once thought to be a runaway winner, has possibly hit the “rookie wall”, making way for guys like Tatum. The other strong contender as of now is Donovan Mitchell of the Utah Jazz, who is already looking like a first option on offense while the team searches for their post-Hayward identity. I’ve convinced myself that Tatum is the best rookie of his draft class, but I have a strong feeling that Mitchell can beat him out simply by scoring in volume. Simmons, I reiterate, has hit the proverbial wall.

The case in favor of Tatum is based almost entirely on his offensive efficiency. His 1.101 points per possession (via Synergy) puts him in the top 10 percent of all players and his 57.5% effective field goal percentage puts him in the 85th percentile among forwards (via Cleaning the Glass). In clutch time (ahead or behind five points, with five minutes or less remaining) Tatum has 50 points to his name on 27 field goal attempts and 70% shooting. Tatum is selective of his shooting to a fault, meaning he seems to only take shots he know will go in, which helps his efficiency but restricts his scoring. He may be good, but he needs to realize it himself to get the most of his talents.

As far as voting goes, it helps that Tatum plays for a popular Boston team after playing for an always popular Duke program. It shouldn’t matter, but individual awards are affected by popularity more than they should be. There’s a reason Kawhi Leonard lost out in last year’s MVP race.

One tick I have against Tatum is that Brad Stevens has a reputation for making players look better in his system than they really are. I don’t think many people will care, but it could catch up to him some day.

As far as the opposition goes, Ben Simmons is possibly the most offensively advanced player in the draft, even if he can’t shoot. He’s the next Giannis, so to speak, in that he has everybody saying “as soon as this kid develops a jump shot - watch out!”

(Giannis, as great as he is, has not developed a reliable jumpshot in 360 career games, but who’s counting?)

16 points, eight rebounds, and seven assists per game for a rookie is near impossible to compete with. Now add two steals per game and you’ve got both ends of the floor mostly covered. Advanced stats, however, have not been friendly to Simmons. Per Synergy, his 0.84 points per possession is in the 22nd percentile. To his credit, Simmons is a great finisher at the rim, although some of his interior prowess is wasted on his poor free throw shooting. Simmons is far and away the best passer of the group, and I would think his superior court vision will keep him near the top of the rookie ladder for the rest of the year.

The thing working against Simmons is the red-shirt rookie narrative, where some would argue that it’s unfair that a player who has been working with an NBA staff for well over a year is still considered a rookie. It didn’t seem to matter with Blake Griffin, but now that the 76ers have red-shirted almost all of their recent lottery picks, the rest of the league is starting to take notice. It’ll be interesting to see if Simmons is the first rookie to be seriously affected by this narrative. Better late than never, I say. 

Finally, there’s Donovan Mitchell. This is where it gets tricky if you’re rooting for Tatum. For a while, Mitchell was putting up numbers on horrible inefficiency, but not any more. Per Synergy, Mitchell’s 0.965 points per possession has him in the 53rd percentile, but that’s a number that will only get better over time, barring another “rookie wall” situation. The most impressive part of Mitchell’s emergence is his ability to make a team competitive by himself. Per Cleaning the Glass, Mitchell’s usage percentage (29%) has him in the 89th percentile of all guards, which seems astronomically high for a rookie (Tatum’s is 16.8%, Simmons is 26.6%). Synergy also paints Mitchell has a great defender, ranking him at the 80th percentile at 0.844 points per possession. 

I don’t mean to describe players with piles of stats, but I have to admit that my motive in my research was to find a flaw in Mitchell’s game, but, on paper, he’s just too damn good. And when it comes to voting for awards, stats hold a lot of weight.

Mitchell and Tatum have shown little weakness so far, but there’s one more factor worth mentioning that works in Tatum’s favor: playing on a good team. Should that matter? Maybe not. But the bottom line is that Tatum is going to be playing in meaningful games on national television on the season’s home stretch, where he’s going to show off his skills to a lot more eyeballs than the other top candidates. For the fame-factor alone, I almost dedicated a section to Kyle Kuzma, but I just don’t see him on the same level as these guys. Not yet.

Tatum’s play post All-Star break would have to be exceptional to keep pace with Mitchell. His shooting percentages have come back to Earth as of late, which may or may not be related to a dislocated finger. Still, I’m feeling optimistic that he can win it, given that we’re 47 games in and Tatum is still in the conversation. A late-season run could seal the deal, and the Celtics are known to kick things into high gear after the All-Star break. I look forward to seeing if this iteration of the Celtics follows that pattern or not.