The hidden factors of trading for Kawhi Leonard

The hidden factors of trading for Kawhi Leonard

Kawhi Leonard has become available and the sharks are circling. Should the Celtics risk it all to build the league's next superteam?

Kawhi Leonard has become available and the sharks are circling. Should the Celtics risk it all to build the league's next superteam?

The following statement is all of these things: totally insane, possibly true, very confusing, and the potential end of the San Antonio Spurs dynasty. 

The statement: Kawhi Leonard could be on his way out of San Antonio.

It's been widely reported the Leonard wants out, but his motives are a bit unclear. Some would say his misdiagnosed injury has fractured his relationship with the team beyond repair. Jarring, but reasonable. Others have said that Leonard isn't comfortable being the focal point of a basketball franchise, and would rather not have the spotlight on him. He wouldn't be the first, but he would be one of the very few to express it publicly. Of course, Leonard, his "camp", and the Spurs organization have been very tight-lipped on the whole situation.

For months, Leonard was sidelined to an injury suffered by the suspiciously slippery foot of Zaza Pachulia on a close-out - a defensive skill that you could write a book about based on the last year alone. (Becoming the most valued skill outside of shooting, injuries from landing in a player's "air space", describing what a player's "air space" is, how defensive metrics don't properly highlight defensive technique and instinct, and other riveting tales.) Leonard made is return in December and it was declared that everything in the world was normal again (I don't know how anybody could come to this conclusion). Nine games later, Leonard was never seen or heard from again. I'm not even sensationalizing. The dude literally disappeared and, as far as I'm aware, has only communicated to the outside world through his "camp", which involves his uncle and his agent among others. (It was reported that Leonard and Gregg Popovich met face to face recently. There were also reports that it never happened. I don't know how to process this information, which is exactly the point of writing all this.)

It's not completely out of the ordinary for a player's camp to negotiate with the team on the player's behalf. But to send so many mixed signals, and occasionally no signals at all, on a matter with so much significance is a new level of strange. Despite Leonard's evident lack of interest with being associated with the team in any way, the Spurs organization remains dedicated to retaining him.

Leonard's recovery has been just as mysterious as his absence. One would think that a player asking to be traded is in good enough health to be traded, but we don't know yet. If recent trends mean anything, a lot of the offseason fireworks begin around the fourth of July, so it might make sense for Leonard and his camp to keep a low profile to see if any of his desired destinations do anything enticing in the early hours of free agency. Except it might not matter what those teams do, because he doesn't have the leverage to get himself traded there anyway. San Antonio would be wise to deal Leonard far, far away to the East where he couldn't hurt them in an early playoff series, especially given that the potential best offer could come from the Boston Celtics. But if the better offer comes from the West, would it be worth it to accept knowing full well what Leonard would do to you in the playoffs? 

Indiana Pacers GM Kevin Pritchard was endlessly mocked for the return he got for Paul George, and criticized even further for accepting what was viewed as a worse return in order to get George out of the Eastern Conference. On the other hand, Cleveland Cavaliers GM Koby Altman took just as much heat (if not more) for sending Kyrie Irving to the conference-rival Celtics, while ultimately getting very little in return. The list of examples runs on, but I think the lesson is this: the team that trades the star player inevitably loses the trade in any normal circumstance. Of course, Leonard's story is anything but normal.

The idea of packaging Jaylen Brown, Terry Rozier, and draft picks to bring Leonard to Boston is enticing. Still, the lack of any promise that Leonard would re-sign makes it almost too risky to be worth it. History would tell you that playing home games in Boston would be enough to convince a player to re-sign - the last Big Three were all willing to re-up at least once together while taking a pay cut. But I'm officially off the Leonard-to-Boston bandwagon. The money hardly makes sense as it is (you'd have to have a sure-fire home run deal to trade someone as good as Brown on their rookie deal), and the Celtics might already be good enough to win the East without any major changes. 

After replacing 11 out of 15 players last summer, I think we deserve a quiet offseason. (Unless Leonard commits to Boston.)

The following statement is all of these things: totally insane, possibly true, very confusing, and the potential end of the San Antonio Spurs dynasty. 

The statement: Kawhi Leonard could be on his way out of San Antonio.

It's been widely reported the Leonard wants out, but his motives are a bit unclear. Some would say his misdiagnosed injury has fractured his relationship with the team beyond repair. Jarring, but reasonable. Others have said that Leonard isn't comfortable being the focal point of a basketball franchise, and would rather not have the spotlight on him. He wouldn't be the first, but he would be one of the very few to express it publicly. Of course, Leonard, his "camp", and the Spurs organization have been very tight-lipped on the whole situation.

For months, Leonard was sidelined to an injury suffered by the suspiciously slippery foot of Zaza Pachulia on a close-out - a defensive skill that you could write a book about based on the last year alone. (Becoming the most valued skill outside of shooting, injuries from landing in a player's "air space", describing what a player's "air space" is, how defensive metrics don't properly highlight defensive technique and instinct, and other riveting tales.) Leonard made is return in December and it was declared that everything in the world was normal again (I don't know how anybody could come to this conclusion). Nine games later, Leonard was never seen or heard from again. I'm not even sensationalizing. The dude literally disappeared and, as far as I'm aware, has only communicated to the outside world through his "camp", which involves his uncle and his agent among others. (It was reported that Leonard and Gregg Popovich met face to face recently. There were also reports that it never happened. I don't know how to process this information, which is exactly the point of writing all this.)

It's not completely out of the ordinary for a player's camp to negotiate with the team on the player's behalf. But to send so many mixed signals, and occasionally no signals at all, on a matter with so much significance is a new level of strange. Despite Leonard's evident lack of interest with being associated with the team in any way, the Spurs organization remains dedicated to retaining him.

Leonard's recovery has been just as mysterious as his absence. One would think that a player asking to be traded is in good enough health to be traded, but we don't know yet. If recent trends mean anything, a lot of the offseason fireworks begin around the fourth of July, so it might make sense for Leonard and his camp to keep a low profile to see if any of his desired destinations do anything enticing in the early hours of free agency. Except it might not matter what those teams do, because he doesn't have the leverage to get himself traded there anyway. San Antonio would be wise to deal Leonard far, far away to the East where he couldn't hurt them in an early playoff series, especially given that the potential best offer could come from the Boston Celtics. But if the better offer comes from the West, would it be worth it to accept knowing full well what Leonard would do to you in the playoffs? 

Indiana Pacers GM Kevin Pritchard was endlessly mocked for the return he got for Paul George, and criticized even further for accepting what was viewed as a worse return in order to get George out of the Eastern Conference. On the other hand, Cleveland Cavaliers GM Koby Altman took just as much heat (if not more) for sending Kyrie Irving to the conference-rival Celtics, while ultimately getting very little in return. The list of examples runs on, but I think the lesson is this: the team that trades the star player inevitably loses the trade in any normal circumstance. Of course, Leonard's story is anything but normal.

The idea of packaging Jaylen Brown, Terry Rozier, and draft picks to bring Leonard to Boston is enticing. Still, the lack of any promise that Leonard would re-sign makes it almost too risky to be worth it. History would tell you that playing home games in Boston would be enough to convince a player to re-sign - the last Big Three were all willing to re-up at least once together while taking a pay cut. But I'm officially off the Leonard-to-Boston bandwagon. The money hardly makes sense as it is (you'd have to have a sure-fire home run deal to trade someone as good as Brown on their rookie deal), and the Celtics might already be good enough to win the East without any major changes. 

After replacing 11 out of 15 players last summer, I think we deserve a quiet offseason. (Unless Leonard commits to Boston.)

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