Al Horford and the Elusive Triple Double

Al Horford and the Elusive Triple Double

Al Horford has so many near-triple-doubles, I couldn't help but wonder how life would be different if he had finished the job more often by packing the stat sheet a little more.

Al Horford has so many near-triple-doubles, I couldn't help but wonder how life would be different if he had finished the job more often by packing the stat sheet a little more.

It's hard to say whose reputation has benefited the most from the Boston Celtics' 21-4 start to the season. Is it Kyrie Irving, who was initially known to be best suited as a second option, or is it Al Horford, who was once known to be the worst max contract player in today's NBA? Maybe I added too much hyperbole, but I think the answer is clear: This is a redemption year for Al Horford's reputation.

Horford's 20 points, nine rebounds, and eight assists left him just shy of a triple-double in Boston's win over Giannis Milwaukee. Man, if I had a dollar for every time I thought Horford might actually finish with a triple double I would have... at least 20 dollars.

Per basketball-reference, Horford has recorded at least seven points, rebounds, and assists in 24 games throughout his career. Only once did he ever finish with an elusive triple-double, back in January 2015 as a member of the Hawks. Had each of Horford's 24 almost triple-doubles resulted in actual triple-doubles, he would be 14th all time (tied with Charles Barkley), and fifth among active players behind Russell Westbrook (94), LeBron James (76), Rajon Rondo (39), and James Harden (35).

(I included playoff games in my search, while most lists don’t. But why wouldn’t you? Aren’t those much harder to get? It would be a serious disservice to prime Rondo not to include playoff games.)

If Horford really did have 24 career triple-doubles, I would expect that the "Average Al” narrative would have never existed to begin with. It goes to show how narrow the line we walk can be when stats are used to construct narratives, as we know damn well that Westbrook would not have an MVP award had he averaged one less rebound.

Looking further down the list, it starts to feel completely silly to put any stock in judging players by career triple-doubles. Let this one sink in: Antoine Walker has the same amount of triple doubles as Chris Paul (15).

Stephen Curry has eight triple-dubs in his career. So does Giannis. And Elfrid Payton. Two of those players have remarkable court vision, and one can’t see through his own hair.

I guess the point here is that the top of the triple-double ladder is ridiculously top-heavy, and the common thread I see among those players (namely LeBron, Harden, and Westbrook) is a high usage percentage (and immense talent) - all three have a usage percent over 30, while Horford’s is just 18. The modern NBA has shifted slightly away from being run by ball-dominant point guards and moved more towards simply having your best player, regardless of position, bring the ball up and command the offense.

Horford simply doesn’t have the volume to impact the game like an A-List superstar, and that’s not an excuse I’m making for him, that’s just his niche as an NBA player. He gives the game what it needs and not much more. In the scope of the current Celtics roster, the game needs playmaking. This is especially true when the Celtics play the Bucks, who blitzed Kyrie Irving every possession to force the ball out of his hands. This would often leave Al Horford or Marcus Smart in a four-on-three situation in the half court, who can execute the pick-and-roll just fine with Kyrie out of the play. Basically, the Bucks were betting on Horford to make poor decisions in hectic situations (double teams and sprinting help defenders). It goes without saying that that’s not a bet worth taking if you’re playing against one of the best passing big men in basketball. Horford’s 5.3 assists per game is second among power forwards to Draymond Green’s 7.1, and his 26.4 assist percentage this season is the highest of his career.

Bonus: I took a break from writing to watch the Celtic/Mavericks game and Horford put in 17 points, eight rebounds, eight assists, three blocks, and two steals. The Celtics improved to a 22-4 record in a game without Hayward, Brown, and Morris. The Horford renaissance year rolls on.

It's hard to say whose reputation has benefited the most from the Boston Celtics' 21-4 start to the season. Is it Kyrie Irving, who was initially known to be best suited as a second option, or is it Al Horford, who was once known to be the worst max contract player in today's NBA? Maybe I added too much hyperbole, but I think the answer is clear: This is a redemption year for Al Horford's reputation.

Horford's 20 points, nine rebounds, and eight assists left him just shy of a triple-double in Boston's win over Giannis Milwaukee. Man, if I had a dollar for every time I thought Horford might actually finish with a triple double I would have... at least 20 dollars.

Per basketball-reference, Horford has recorded at least seven points, rebounds, and assists in 24 games throughout his career. Only once did he ever finish with an elusive triple-double, back in January 2015 as a member of the Hawks. Had each of Horford's 24 almost triple-doubles resulted in actual triple-doubles, he would be 14th all time (tied with Charles Barkley), and fifth among active players behind Russell Westbrook (94), LeBron James (76), Rajon Rondo (39), and James Harden (35).

(I included playoff games in my search, while most lists don’t. But why wouldn’t you? Aren’t those much harder to get? It would be a serious disservice to prime Rondo not to include playoff games.)

If Horford really did have 24 career triple-doubles, I would expect that the "Average Al” narrative would have never existed to begin with. It goes to show how narrow the line we walk can be when stats are used to construct narratives, as we know damn well that Westbrook would not have an MVP award had he averaged one less rebound.

Looking further down the list, it starts to feel completely silly to put any stock in judging players by career triple-doubles. Let this one sink in: Antoine Walker has the same amount of triple doubles as Chris Paul (15).

Stephen Curry has eight triple-dubs in his career. So does Giannis. And Elfrid Payton. Two of those players have remarkable court vision, and one can’t see through his own hair.

I guess the point here is that the top of the triple-double ladder is ridiculously top-heavy, and the common thread I see among those players (namely LeBron, Harden, and Westbrook) is a high usage percentage (and immense talent) - all three have a usage percent over 30, while Horford’s is just 18. The modern NBA has shifted slightly away from being run by ball-dominant point guards and moved more towards simply having your best player, regardless of position, bring the ball up and command the offense.

Horford simply doesn’t have the volume to impact the game like an A-List superstar, and that’s not an excuse I’m making for him, that’s just his niche as an NBA player. He gives the game what it needs and not much more. In the scope of the current Celtics roster, the game needs playmaking. This is especially true when the Celtics play the Bucks, who blitzed Kyrie Irving every possession to force the ball out of his hands. This would often leave Al Horford or Marcus Smart in a four-on-three situation in the half court, who can execute the pick-and-roll just fine with Kyrie out of the play. Basically, the Bucks were betting on Horford to make poor decisions in hectic situations (double teams and sprinting help defenders). It goes without saying that that’s not a bet worth taking if you’re playing against one of the best passing big men in basketball. Horford’s 5.3 assists per game is second among power forwards to Draymond Green’s 7.1, and his 26.4 assist percentage this season is the highest of his career.

Bonus: I took a break from writing to watch the Celtic/Mavericks game and Horford put in 17 points, eight rebounds, eight assists, three blocks, and two steals. The Celtics improved to a 22-4 record in a game without Hayward, Brown, and Morris. The Horford renaissance year rolls on.

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